**Random Walk**

Let's say the wheel has only two possible outcomes, red or black. No zeros.

Our expectation moving forward is that black will hit about half of the time, and that red will hit about half of the time.

After ten spins our results with a little variance thrown in is as follows:

RBRRRRRBRB

30% Black (3 hits)

70% Red hit. (7 hits)

Now that there's an imbalance, what do you suppose our expectation is moving forward for the next set of 20 spins? Is black due to hit more frequently than red? Does black have to hit more than red for "system player's regression to the mean" or "system player's law of averages" to occur?

Moving forward, we have 20 more spins below. Our expectation once again is that each color will hit equally. But with a little variance thrown in the results are as follows.

RBRBBRBRBBRRRBBRRRBR

45% Black (9 hits)

55% Red (11hits)

Now take a close look at the grand totals for all 30 spins below.

40% Black (12 hits)

60% Red (18 hits)

Because black went from hitting only 30% of the times to hitting 40% of the time in the larger sample, here's where some of you will say that "regression to the mean" is taking place. (Some of you are probably also saying that it's the "law of averages".)

It's true that black hit more frequently, but it's still a net loser! In order for it to appear to "regress to the mean" or for the "law of large numbers" to work, it didn't have to hit more than red in order to appear to catch up, all that needed to really take place was the spin sample had to grow larger!

In small spin samples, the difference between how often the red and black hit can be quite large...percentage wise. moving forward, our expectation should always be just expectation, not that one color will hit more than the other to even out the imbalance! Again, as the spin samples grow exponentially larger, regression to the mean appears to happen, even if the losing color never catches back up!

The law of large numbers, and regression to the mean, law of series... doesn't, can't, won't, will not make anyone's system work! Not in small samples, big samples, wide samples, short samples, short term, near term, long term. Ever!

-Really