Tendency play/game:

Sherridan & all we need using some kind of playing model.

With this example i will referring to singles contra larger series.

I give example with regession towards the mean.

But i hope you get the main idea.

We look for imbalance or bias within a window of events / trails.

This means we are measuring overrepresented events and underrepresented events.

When we reach a benchmark around 3.0 STD (could be any) then we have a pretty strong imbalance / bias.

Then it can continue to grow stronger as the nothing is due or that the bell curve has no limit.

This does not effect us.

This window of bias or overrepresented events following strict rules and values based upon math and probability to be valid.

With the example singles contra larger series so do we have the following values or playing model.

Singles has the value of 1

Series of two has the value of 0

Series of three has the value of 1

Series of four has the value of 2

Series of five has the value of 3

Series of six has the value of 4

Series of seven has the value of 5

And so it continues ...

Look at this values again, here you have singles contra series of three and both with the same value.

This is because when you measuring the random flow or distribution of random events you want to make sure you have overrepresented events and underrepresented events or a true bias into one direction.

This way with this example larger series are underrepresented.

Now you can pick how many windows you want with 14/2 and you will for the next 50 100 150 200 250 300 trails get larger series.

You know they will show, but you don't know when, this is why cut point methodology only attack when change is present.

Example 14 singles and 2 series of three is 3.0 STD.

it's a window of 16 events with a strong bias or a strong window with overrepresented events.

This is the starting point or core about this subject.

To measuring the random flow and find overrepresented events or strong bias (around 3.0 std)

Different methods or measuring other events has other values based upon math and probability.

With this example we have find and observe a window with 14 singles and 2 series of three.

From this moment and further into the future so do we have some degree of expectation.

I am not saying we have a crystal ball.

But we have what we can call vacuum pressure or a hole or a window with strong imbalance of overrepresented events.

So our expectation is that sooner or later the underrepresented events will start to show.

I know that the bias can grow and get stronger and hit 4 5 6 STD but it does not effect us.

In this case we would only observe.

Cut point methodology is about to capture the drop point after a strong bias.

The drop point or the underrepresented events can come as tiny, medium or large drop points.

The main idea is to capture them when they already show or are present.

That way you have a indication that the bias or imbalance has stop growing stronger.

This is what i call tendency play.

We can also see it as regression towards the mean.

They will be pretenders who Think they know all the facts, so i offer you to see for your self how th animal or regression works in real Life.

I attach a simple software that measuring the random flow.

Sometimes it does not have to have a drop point or even out.

You win if it just stop growing stronger and stay at same level without getting stronger or weaker.

This is what i call or name the hovering state and i define it being part of the drop point or correction as it is present change.

I have simulation software where you can observe the values.

You can run 10.000 trails and look how the imbalance behave ( The ECART )

By this observations you can build a working march.

You can see what happens after 3 4 5 6 STD windows.

The software show the values on a rolling basis.

This way you can make statistical relevant observation of hundred thousand simulations.

It check R/B H/L O/E and measuring the ECART.

I attach the simulation software ecart and result file of one simulation.

You run the simulation software and load a spin file.

Then the software will convert the file into Ecart values.

This is also a good simulation software for deeper understanding of waves or Ecart play.

The simulation software indicate at right side when it reach 3.0 STD ...

The software measuing singles contra series and series contra singles, each event has the value of 1.

B-0.94 E 1.57 H 1.00

B-0.94 E 1.57 H 1.50

B-0.94 E 1.57 L 1.50

B-0.94 O 1.57 H 1.21

B-0.94 E 1.37 L 1.00

R-0.94 O 1.18 H-0.85

R 1.00 O 1.33 H 0.94

R 1.00 O 1.33 H 0.94

B 1.00 O 1.33 H 0.94

B 1.15 E 1.33 H 0.94

R 1.15 E 1.48 L 0.94

B 0.97 E 1.48 H 0.69

B 1.12 O 1.48 L-0.73

B 1.12 O 1.62 L 0.65

B 1.12 O 1.62 H 0.65

B 1.12 E 1.62 L-1.00

R 1.12 E 1.76 L-1.00

R 1.26 E 1.76 L-1.00

B 1.26 E 1.76 L-1.00

B 1.41 O 1.76 L-1.00

B 1.41 E 1.58 H-1.00

B 1.41 E 1.72 L-1.21

R 1.41 O 1.72 H-1.50

B 1.23 O 1.85 H-1.21

R 1.07 O 1.85 L-1.21

B 0.90 E 1.85 H-1.50

B 1.04 E 1.98 L-1.70

B 1.04 O 1.98 L-1.41

R 1.04 O 2.11 H-1.41

B 1.00 E 2.11 L-1.61

R-0.73 E 2.24 L-1.34

B-0.90 O 2.24 L-1.34

R-1.06 O 2.50 H-1.34

B-1.22 O 2.50 L-1.53

R-1.50 E 2.50 H-1.71

B-1.70 E 2.67 H-1.46

B-1.50 O 2.67 H-1.46

R-1.50 E 2.36 H-1.46

B-2.00 O 2.14 L-1.46

R-2.18 O 2.26 H-1.63

B-3.00 E 2.26 H-1.40 */25

R-3.15 O 2.00 L-1.40 */25

R-2.83 O 2.18 H-1.57

B-2.83 O 2.18 H-1.35

R-2.98 E 2.18 H-1.35

B-3.13 E 2.36 L-1.35 */27

R-3.27 E 2.36 H-1.51 */28

B-3.41 E 2.36 L-1.67 */29

R-3.54 O 2.36 L-1.46 */30

B-3.67 E 2.06 L-1.46 */30

B-3.40 E 2.24 L-1.46 */30

R-3.40 O 2.24 L-1.46 */30

R-3.14 E 1.98 H-1.46 */30

R-3.14 O 1.73 L-1.62 */31

R-3.14 E 1.51 H-1.77 */32

B-3.14 E 1.67 H-1.57 */33

R-3.27 O 1.67 L-1.57 */33

B-3.40 E 1.46 L-1.37 */34

B-3.16 O 1.26 H-1.37 */34

B-3.16 E-1.21 L-1.52 */35

R-3.16 O-1.50 H-1.67 */36

B-3.29 E-1.70 H-1.48 */37

B-3.05 E-1.41 H-1.48 */37

R-3.05 O-1.41 H-1.48 */37

R-2.83 E-1.61 H-1.48

R-2.83 E-1.50 H-1.48

B-2.83 E-1.50 H-1.48

R-2.96 E-1.50 L-1.48

R-2.74 E-1.50 H-1.62

R-2.74 O-1.50 H-1.44

R-2.74 O-1.50 L-1.44

R-2.74 O-1.50 L-1.26

R-2.74 O-1.50 L-1.26

R-2.74 O-1.50 H-1.26

B-2.74 E-1.50 H-1.09

B-2.54 O-1.70 L-1.09

B-2.54 E-1.89 H-1.23

R-2.54 E-1.61 L-1.37

B-2.67 O-1.61 L-1.21

B-2.47 O-1.34 L-1.21

B-2.47 O-1.34 L-1.21

R-2.47 O-1.34 L-1.21

B-2.60 O-1.34 L-1.21

R-2.72 O-1.34 H-1.21

B-2.85 E-1.34 H-1.04

B-2.65 E-1.09 L-1.04

B-2.65 E-1.09 H-1.18

B-2.65 O-1.09 H-1.02

B-2.65 E-1.28 H-1.02

B-2.65 O-1.46 L-1.02

R-2.65 O-1.22 H-1.15

R-2.47 E-1.22 L-1.29

R-2.47 O-1.40 L-1.13

R-2.47 O-1.18 H-1.13

B-2.47 E-1.18 H-0.87

B-2.29 E 1.00 L-0.87