### Author Topic: Runs & Gaps  (Read 2291 times)

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#### Bayes

##### Runs & Gaps
« on: June 10, 2016, 09:04:44 AM »
New article: Runs & Gaps

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2017, 02:55:06 PM »
New article: Runs & Gaps

I can not figure out how to use the calculator!

If I put in a run of 2, and set the probability to 0.027    It answers  as the pic, which looks strange to me.
What am I doing wrong?

The following users thanked this post: Reyth

#### Reyth

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2017, 04:09:23 PM »
You are asking for the chances of a single number to hit and then repeat.  That result looks correct to me?

I mean, 5000+ spins for this to happen is probably a once in a lifetime event but is still correct?

This is why the parachute can run into such difficulties...
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 04:10:58 PM by Reyth »

#### Jesper

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2017, 04:33:35 PM »
If we decide the number before it is  37 x 37   otherwise it is 37. This is avergage.

I have been waiting for a number once about 1000 times. And I have for sure tried it 1000 of times.
I did play some years ago follow the last number, and won if double hit. A hit is one in 37 by average, but I got one
waiting for 870 spins.

Decide the number before  may be such a number (5000) in the span of 90%, but intuitive I feel it is high.

#### Reyth

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2017, 04:53:06 PM »
I feel the same way but I guess it is because a single number can go missing 450+ times in a row to only hit once.  If we think of the worst examples of this kind of hitting, we can imagine it being this bad?

Some numbers can become successively abandoned by probability for an extended time?

And we have to adjust our mind to think about the worst we are likely to ever see...

I mean we can "easily" go 1000 spins with a number only hitting 4-5 times?
« Last Edit: December 03, 2017, 04:57:22 PM by Reyth »

#### Sputnik

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2017, 06:42:43 PM »

Bayes will not return to this forum - something has happen to him.

Now 450 spins without a single number is not much that is the same thing as 18 reds in a row ...
A single number is equal a even money bet when hitting within 25 attempts.
There you go and see how powerful binomial probability calculation is ...

Cheers

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2017, 12:32:15 AM »
Really??? Why would you keep looking for such number?  Let's see... 40 spins/hour... 8 hours makes 320 spins/day.... number didn't hit yet, but you are monitoring? .... coming tomorrow. .. half traking day and it HITS!!!! HURRAH. .. .

#### LiveRouletteOnlinePlayer

##### Re: Runs & Gaps
« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2017, 07:05:00 AM »
It might be worth while waiting for many spins if you knew that the bet hits right after the next spins could bet a lot and also win a lot but if doing a huge job for many hours track spins and then winning a bit then it's not worth the trouble

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