Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: sleeping dozen strategy?  (Read 8080 times)

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scepticus

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2016, 10:35:39 PM »
Yes, we are definitely on the same page.
One of the many criteria that define the player profile, except bankroll, risk tolerance etc. are also physical/mental requirements.

Take for example the Belgian approach which is a great approach imo.
And see how Belgian experienced it in real life:
Quote
After much thought at some point, he started his system with like $100 and very low denominations ($0.05 if I remember correctly). His point was to increase the base bet as his capital increased. He had tremendous determination. He played over 10 hours a day, every day for weeks.

The system produced profits, but as he gradually increased the base bet to like $10 then the sequence from hell came and he lost all his bankroll. This happened again and again. After much effort he multiplied his starting capital, only to be wiped out, at some point by an extreme sequence.

He was very near to the point of total nervous collapse. His wife was worried, but she supported him morally. In the end he succeeded. I don't remember the numbers exactly, but I think he managed to turn $100 to something like $2000, which is 20 times your initial total bankroll. Then he stopped and said he would never try this again. The mental, physical and nervous toll he had to pay was too much.
Now we see why a good system is not for everyone.

What I have done is to increase my stake as I increased my profits.
My bet is 8 numbers bet as 4 splits.
I started  with 25p splits -4x 25p =£1 and £20 bank ( Yes ! Really ! 25p !)
Doubling that to £ 40 I increased my stakes to 4x50p
Doubling that to £80 I still bet with 50p but now had 2 " banks "
Increased to £ 120 and was doing well within an 8 bet bank and decided 8 x bet  as realistic 
and increased bet to 4x£1 and then got a fright when I was down to my last bet at a table , recovered ,  but decided to up it to  a 10x 4 table bank.
Later , I increased to 4 x £2 and still kept winning .
At £500 I decided on 4 x £5 splits and won .
Betting with  £5 chips was making me feel a bit apprehensive so went back to £2 splits or £1 -I like to feel comfortable when betting.
I still bet this but I think that betting Hit and Run has been  a help.
Many years ago I tried this increase with increased profits  idea  by using a 20 point bank but betting Red or Black. I increased my bank to 2 betting banks at a much higher level. Lost the first one and then - stupidly - did the opposite the next time because of losing the first one.As no zero had occurred
I would have won back the first lost bank.
So I can relate to our " human failings " being a factor ! 
 

Geoffrey

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2016, 11:40:48 PM »
hey scep, thx for sharing your idea. in fact i did the same thing when i previously had a bad run using a choatic bet selecton, combined with a hollandish progression. As i opened a topic about roulette earnings, maybe you have seen it, maybe not. when i started to play i initially put 100 on my bankroll to play, within 2 weeks i managed to get up to 950. Than 2 bad runs happened which made me lose half of my bankroll. As i found the losses to be hard on me. I decided to go for a more defensive way of playing. i transfered 400 to my bankaccount. And had only 20 euro to play on my bankroll. I did this very intentionally to make me play with caution and get used to it. now we are 2 weeks further and so far i succeeded in turning the 20 euro into 450. using the strategy with the dozens. In fact, my idea resembles a lot like palestis way of playing. the only difference i know is that i still mix things up while playing, i dont focus on the dozens only. And stil searching on a progression that suits me best. Haven't yet decided, still experimenting with different kinds. but al is going pretty well so far
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 12:27:27 AM by Geoffrey »
 

Geoffrey

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2016, 04:43:27 PM »
Sad story to read kav. I wonder did he enterly quit the game , or does he play now from time to time just for fun. Just asking, because, even so roulette is a gambling game, it sure stays difficult to abandon a game you love.

My experience as a daytrader sure helps. when it comes on operating on the financial market. more of half the work is done pure by having the right mindset.

I'd say 50% is about the mental game, 20% about your 'gameplan', 20 % about money management and 10% luck.

To be succesfull in this aera of work you should except to fail miserably over and over again, and thats not a bad thing either. Making mistakes is all about the learning proces. The more you lose, to closer you get tot the road of succes.

Same things apply on casino gambling as far as i'm concerned
 
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Harryj

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2016, 08:03:12 PM »

    Hi Godfrey,
                  I have followed your posts and I can say you have the makings of a winner. We have all made stupid and expensive mistakes on the way to a method that suits our style, or mindset.

    As far as the best progression goes. It depends a lot on the method you use and the style you adopt. From your early post I gather that you are not adverse to using short progressions and accepting the loss if the series is prolonged. That is my own style. I do not chase loses, but accept them as part of the cost of doing business.

     In my reply to Blue Angel, in another thread, I have laid out my method of deciding the range of my bets It is a little laborious but well worth the effort. If the range you arrive at seems to short, you can lengthen the progression with "insured" bets that recover part of the loss you would have had.

    For those who are not sure about this "INSURED" bet business. An insured bet is one that accepts a loss to recover part of the bankroll. eg.
     An EC Marty is 1.2.4.8.16.32 etc  An 'Insured" Marty could be 1.2.4.7.(break even) 12.20.  The last 2 bets loss money, but they recover a large part of the bank. A standard 6 step Marty costs 63u. The insured 6 steps cost only 46u.  If you have done your homework properly those last 2 bets won't come into play too often., but the extra safety is worth the cost.

      Harry
 
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Geoffrey

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2016, 03:05:38 PM »
Hi there harryj, well thx for believing in what i'm doing, thats a very nice compliment.

as things are going, i'm pretty pleased with results so far. in 3 weeks time it has reached a 600 u profit, with a win rate ratio of 75% all sessions put together. in fact a didn't have one day which ended in a loss. only to get to last week the losing streak seems to have hit. 5 consequtive days when i pulled out with a loss. as my money management is pretty thight that didnt effect my bankroll that much, i'm still at 540 units up.

i really like the suggestion you have made. an insured bet strategy aint a bad idea at all. surely will take that into consideration. thx for the hint.

Question, do you believe a dealers signature effects the outcome of spins? as things progresse, i still am absorbing info. Just wondering if you managed to note done for instance 100 sessions with the same dealer, what the results could be, if it could affect your gameplan, if you could have an edge

Or do most believe this is not worth your time investigating?
 

Harryj

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #20 on: April 08, 2016, 10:07:54 AM »
   Hi Geoffrey,
                 There can be no doubt that Dealers do produce a signature from time to time. despite the fact that they are trained not to. That is why they are changed so often.

    Remember, if you can spot it so can the "eye in the sky" and the pit boss. This will lead to a word of warning or a rapid change of dealer. If you think it is happening by all means try to exploit it, but don't be surprised if the signature or the dealer disappears quickly.

   Harry
« Last Edit: April 08, 2016, 10:09:57 AM by Harryj »
 

scepticus

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2016, 02:04:05 PM »
Hi there harryj, well thx for believing in what i'm doing, thats a very nice compliment.

as things are going, i'm pretty pleased with results so far. in 3 weeks time it has reached a 600 u profit, with a win rate ratio of 75% all sessions put together. in fact a didn't have one day which ended in a loss. only to get to last week the losing streak seems to have hit. 5 consequtive days when i pulled out with a loss. as my money management is pretty thight that didnt effect my bankroll that much, i'm still at 540 units up.

i really like the suggestion you have made. an insured bet strategy aint a bad idea at all. surely will take that into consideration. thx for the hint.

Question, do you believe a dealers signature effects the outcome of spins? as things progresse, i still am absorbing info. Just wondering if you managed to note done for instance 100 sessions with the same dealer, what the results could be, if it could affect your gameplan, if you could have an edge

Or do most believe this is not worth your time investigating?

In an earlier post, Geoff,  you mentioned " 50% mental game."
I think the Dealers' Signature is a fallacy and it's advocates are playing mind games. As Harry says
Dealers' Signatures come and go so are more likely to be variance at work.
I think this is only " Noise ".
 

Geoffrey

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #22 on: April 08, 2016, 06:53:31 PM »
the reason why i bring up dealers signature is because when i play with a certain dealer its seems that the way i play almost cant lose, (lost 2 games in about 80 sessions). i was just wondering is this dealers signature doing its work or what?

with other dealers a dont get those results which isn't a surprise , but not that bad either.

You always feel a little tention when you put money on the table. but when she's spinning the wheel, i dont get stressed, i'm relax and calm, in my head i already know, if i stick to my plan, chances i lose are down to a minimum. I just wonder why this happens, i just dont get it
 

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2019, 05:07:28 PM »
Everytime that I play roulette at LiveRouletteIreland I notice that a few dozens will sleep for over 10 spins and some have come close to 20 so I'd be very careful with this strategy.
 
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palestis

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #24 on: April 12, 2019, 02:45:39 AM »
A dozen missing for 10 spins is rare, and 20 spins is very very rare. That's y we notice it. Because of its rarity.
When you play this system you have to chose the numbe of spins you will play that dozen for, after it is found to be missing for several spins.
Of course, you don't bet indefinitely or till the B/R runs out. So if it goes missing for 10, 20 or 30 spins it will not hurt you because you will not or should not play that many spins.
Ideally you play it for about 3-4 spins or stop if it shows up.
Another table it might show that it's missing for 7 or more spins. You play that dozen for 3-4 spins.
There is no way that every time you do that,  that the dozen will go on sleeping for 20 spins. Most of the time it will show up within the playable spins.
You have to determine the minimum amount of missing spins, ( usually 4 and up) before you start betting on it, and also the maximum number of spins  that you will play until it shows up. (ideally is about 3-4 spins).
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 02:48:05 AM by palestis »
 
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scepticus

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2019, 10:17:19 PM »
Palestis

There is some logic in your view that 8 is the amount of spins within which a dozen is likely to appear .According the the chart that vitorwally posted it has a 95% chance of  occuring  within 8 spins.I guess that  your progression for this  is 1-1-  1. 1/2  - 2 -- Total 5 1/2 .  ?
If so I think you should bet only 5-6-7 as 1-2-3 .Total 6 but a better return.This has a 90% chance of winning - assuming  you ignore the firtst 4 !

Risk is everywhere  !"
Incidentally. you used to advocate "  Ranges " . Have you abandoned that idea ?
 

palestis

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2019, 03:03:21 AM »
Given the fact that many players walk around roulette tables looking for triggers for whatever system they play here is what is most likely to happen.
If this system is to be played, you are not always going to run into 4 spins a dozen is missing for.
Most likely you will find a dozen or column to be missing from anywhere from the minimum requirement of 4 spins all the way to 10 or more and everything in between.
It's not a trigger that you can order in every table. it's what you run into in every table you observe as you walk around the floor.
Most of the time I run into 5 or 6 or spins a dozen is missing for,  often 7 or 8 spins. Which more than qualifies as trigger.
So you figure that if you find a table where a dozen is missing for 7 spins and you bet another 3 spins, it would take over 10 missing spins to lose. (7 already missing and another 3 failed attempts makes it 10 missing spins).
But I am against betting indefinitely, or until the B/R runs out because sooner or later you will run into a roulette where the dozen will go on missing for 20+ spins. And we all know what that can do to the B/R with progression.
But it is highly unlikely that for whatever spins a dozen is missing for, it will always go missing for another 3. (the bets that you will play).
And yes I do use the range made famous by the late HARRYJ.
So if I see a dozen missing 6 spins, I might wait to be missed another 2 and then play the 3 spins.
Because regardless of how many spins I run into as a "ready made" situation, I prefer to add some more virtual losses, before commencing the bets.
I always like to add my personal input, rather than relying on ready made situations alone.
I found that often times the black swan is hiding in ready made situations, where you personal guessing input is disregarded.
In other words you still have to use your winning range no matter what the ready made situation is.

 

scepticus

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2019, 01:42:14 PM »
I think we should take advantage of what the Maths Geeks are telling us  Palestis.That is in 90% of cases a dozen will appear within 7 spins. That INCLUDES the first-4   .
You seem to be relying on intuition and a negative progression . Not a good idea IMO .
 
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Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2019, 02:47:16 PM »
Off topic:

What is the longest sleeping Le Tiers du cylindre section on wheel?

Any real stats?
 

palestis

Re: sleeping dozen strategy?
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2019, 02:50:52 PM »
So I assume that you only play the next 3 spins (flat bets), when you see a dozen missing for 4 spins.
 What happens if you run into a table where a dozen is missing 6 spins? Do you only play one spin so that you can still  be within the 90% rate? Or do you still bet up to 3 spins (9 in total), where the probability of appearance is higher than 90%?
You have to have those decisions worked out, because you never know for how many spins you will find a dozen  missing as you check out the various tables.