Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: To all mathematician here  (Read 20380 times)

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DrTalos

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #15 on: January 21, 2016, 01:45:35 AM »
To blueangel:
  Do you know how many things are against you in a casino? How many players try to understand the way you play, have many interruptions, technical difficulties, machines out of order for some time and such? If you are out for about 5000 units and they ask you to leave for changing tickets dispenser, or general maintenance, or cleaning, what you do with your system?
  And about calculation, you really think to bring paper and pens? (many people does that. One brought even a laptop, once). Is not my way. I don't want to get noticed, for easily understandable reasons. I play enough to change money with a machine instead of a cashier, and always below 10000 so I will not sign any paper. I do my simple math in my mind, and I use a clicker to keep track of the number of spins occurred.
  I had been throw out of a small casino in Slovenjia, once, a couple years ago. I will never do the same mistake again.
I change often my target, so I need to stay away from home 3/4 days a week. I love Las Vegas for obvious reasons, and I do not trust online casinos (two reasons for this, you can easily guess both).

I post here because many are really trying to beat the wheel. I was in the same situation not so long time ago. So I try to give inputs, suggestions. I will not give my system to anyone, free or for money. I wrote my fourth in a post called simple system, the top threes are with me, and written for my family, if something happens to me (my oldest son is 19, can take my place). What I wrote can give you the wrong idea. Two fully tested systems are written, the third, the one I am developing right now, is still only in my pads.
  The system, profitable, that I do not use, has a need of a big bankroll, and sometimes the game can be too long for a marginal profit. The other, you can call HG is, well, Holy Grail, and is exactly what I dreamt of for something like 30 years.
  Hope this clarifies a bit my position here.
 
 
 

Real

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Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2016, 02:06:06 AM »


Quote
Ok real, some facts:
 I go to casinos for three/four days a week. I play around 8 hours a day, and I see grossly 600 spins, gaining around 1500/1800 $ a day. My systems total bankroll is 950 units (never been close to that. The worst game touched a 590 units). For my basic bet, 3000$.

You may see that many spins a day but you're either rarely betting, or your full of bs.

Just an fyi...as a professional gambler I can spot a fake a mile away.

Sorry just the facts,

-Really

« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 02:08:00 AM by Real »
 

BlueAngel

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Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2016, 02:16:35 AM »
To blueangel:
  Do you know how many things are against you in a casino? How many players try to understand the way you play, have many interruptions, technical difficulties, machines out of order for some time and such? If you are out for about 5000 units and they ask you to leave for changing tickets dispenser, or general maintenance, or cleaning, what you do with your system?
  And about calculation, you really think to bring paper and pens? (many people does that. One brought even a laptop, once). Is not my way. I don't want to get noticed, for easily understandable reasons. I play enough to change money with a machine instead of a cashier, and always below 10000 so I will not sign any paper. I do my simple math in my mind, and I use a clicker to keep track of the number of spins occurred.
  I had been throw out of a small casino in Slovenjia, once, a couple years ago. I will never do the same mistake again.
I change often my target, so I need to stay away from home 3/4 days a week. I love Las Vegas for obvious reasons, and I do not trust online casinos (two reasons for this, you can easily guess both).

I post here because many are really trying to beat the wheel. I was in the same situation not so long time ago. So I try to give inputs, suggestions. I will not give my system to anyone, free or for money. I wrote my fourth in a post called simple system, the top threes are with me, and written for my family, if something happens to me (my oldest son is 19, can take my place). What I wrote can give you the wrong idea. Two fully tested systems are written, the third, the one I am developing right now, is still only in my pads.
  The system, profitable, that I do not use, has a need of a big bankroll, and sometimes the game can be too long for a marginal profit. The other, you can call HG is, well, Holy Grail, and is exactly what I dreamt of for something like 30 years.
  Hope this clarifies a bit my position here.
 


Why have you been thrown out from Slovenian casino?
By the way, that casino was "Perla"?

Personally I had just a handful of awkward situations like casino staff asking me to remove my cap (hat) because, as they explained, the cap was hiding my face from the camera.

Another situation was not to hold in my hands my cellphone when I was sitting on the roulette table, another one was to leave my business bag at the gardrobe because they didn't want me to carry it inside the games' floor even when casino personnel has already checked the bag and confirmed that there was nothing suspicious inside rather than documents.

Don't get me wrong, I don't use to take my business bag at the casinos,but that day I had a business meeting just before going to the casino.

To prohibit papers and pens when the casinos are those who offer those things it's simply ridiculous!

I believe other gamblers don't notice me, but even if they would, they couldn't understand anything rather than just numbers on a piece of paper.
Besides it's not such a problem for me if someone intelligent to understand could copy my method, my real worry is not to get banned from casinos.

As you said, Las Vegas is the ideal location because has an abundance of "targets" and you could "harvest" them on a rotational basis.
 

DrTalos

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2016, 03:03:13 AM »
Yeah, Real, you did a very good job spotting me. You are such a laugh... I hope for you you do not play poker, with this "ability" you have.
  What a loser.

  Blueangel. No, they have nothing against paper and pen, it is me.
  Perla is a very big casino in Slovenjia. The biggest, to say it all. I was playing in a small one called Diamond Club. And I choose that because was one of the few with an airball machine.

 

Trilobite

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2016, 03:07:17 AM »

... In the random game of roulette your system can not win even a fraction of a unit in the long run...

Hello Real,

Please tell, what do you consider the long run?
Can you give me a figure, please?

I suppose there would be different figures for different layout bets.

For example, betting on the dozens what would be the long run figure?
What figure would satisfy a mathematician that the game was beaten, even by a fraction of a unit?
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 03:12:57 AM by Trilobite »
 
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palestis

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2016, 03:53:41 AM »

... In the random game of roulette your system can not win even a fraction of a unit in the long run...

Hello Real,

Please tell, what do you consider the long run?
Can you give me a figure, please?

I suppose there would be different figures for different layout bets.

For example, betting on the dozens what would be the long run figure?
What figure would satisfy a mathematician that the game was beaten, even by a fraction of a unit?
Long run is the most ambiguous and most unquantifiable variable in regards to a player. The term applies to the casino more than it applies to the player. Yes the casino wins in the long run, which could very well be one full day. The difference is, the casino is only concerned with aggregate results.  It doesn't aim to win out each individual player.
 Experts misinterpret this fact, to conclude that if casinos win in the long run, then every player has to lose in the long run. And that's the wrong interpretation.
For a player the long run could very well be eternity.
A more realistic approach, is to consider long run, a specific time frame, a player needs to achieve a specific goal. That is to win a specific amount he can invest in another venture and draw the proceeds from it. The money is securely locked, then he can start another long run cycle.
 
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Trilobite

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2016, 04:34:49 AM »

For a player the long run could very well be eternity.


That would be a shame. How are we ever supposed to prove beating the game if we are dealing with eternity?
 
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Real

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Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2016, 08:34:49 AM »
I'm always amused by gamblers that believe that they can hit and run, and remain winners overtime because they believe that they only gamble in the "short term".

By using the "short term" type of logic of the absurd, I should be able to extend my life virtually forever by choosing only to live  in the "short term".  This will enable me to avoid diseases, frailty, and accidents, since those types of things only happen to people that live in the long term.

-Really
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 08:41:13 AM by Real »
 

Trilobite

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2016, 08:42:08 AM »
I'm always amused by gamblers that believe that they can hit and run, and remain winners overtime because they believe that they only gamble in the "short term".

By using the "short term" type of logic of the absurd, I should be able to extend my life virtually forever by choosing only to live only in the "short term".  This will enable me to avoid diseases, frailty, and accidents, since those types of things only happen to people that live in the long term.

-Really

I asked a question for an answer, and I got a rant.

Good job, Real.
 

Bebediktus

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #24 on: January 21, 2016, 09:40:01 AM »
If you are sure, let's make a bet. Bring in a casino 25000$. I will do the same. I play my system for any reasonable amount of time you want. You fix the limits. If I win, I take your 25000$ (without explaining you the system). If I bust, you take my money.
  Deal?
Can I ask about some details of deal which you offer ? What you name as win ? Are many cases when you can be in plus after some time and that amount of times when you will end in plus are maybe 90%. That is not hard to do. So will do simple calculattion say you play 10 times -9 times you stay in plus 2500$ , but in tenth time you lost yours 25000$ . 2500*9=22500.  25 000-22 500=-2 500 so in every 10 games you go down by 2 500$.
But look what is with your deal ... 9 times you end in plus and get 25 000, and one time you end in minus and pay 25 000. So totally for 10 games you have 200 000$ from your oponent and you lost to casino 2 500$ . So totall is 200 000-2 500=197 500$ to your pocket in 10 games or 19 750 in one game. Not too much you want ????

Quote
I play my system for any reasonable amount of time you want.
Time here have not value - important that you do must do say 200 predictions , say to name 18 numbers in every spin and be right in 130 spins from 200. This way chance that that is random will be minimal.

So can you be right in 130 cases from 200 when name 18 numbers ?
 

Mike

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #25 on: January 21, 2016, 12:29:01 PM »
@ Trilobite,

It's not easy to give a simple answer to the question of what the long run is because it varies (as you realize) with different bets and progressions. Of course there is no single number which applies in all cases which is why mathematicians use "infinity". That doesn't mean that the long run only kicks in after an infinite number of bets, or that it's imaginary (as so many system players like to believe). The point is that ANY bet on a negative expectation game is a poor one, and the likelihood of loss increases as you make more bets.

The best way to "prove" that your system beats the house edge would be to have it simulated over millions of spins.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2016, 12:31:01 PM by Mike »
 

DrTalos

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #26 on: January 21, 2016, 02:08:38 PM »
For me, a winning session is: I insert 1000$ in a machine (or change in chips at a table) and hours later I take 1500$. And not occasionaly, but steadily and repeatously.
  But now I know few things.
  1) it is easy to win. Pick 18 number you easy get 130 hit out of 200. (Please show me that!)
  2) even if you win a million dollar over a twenty years time frame, you should consider yourself a loser, because you will die and death will come in your grave with a roulette wheel making you lose for the eternity, just to balance odds.
 
Seems I wasted my time here. This will not happen again. I am heading to a casino, where I will be in the next four days, facing my destiny as a loser and crying when I cash my illusional winnings.
  So long, guys.
 
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Bebediktus

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2016, 02:23:06 PM »
Child talks, as always....
 

dobbelsteen

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2016, 08:50:51 PM »
I see very often cold numbers  of more than 300 spins!!
 

Trilobite

Re: To all mathematician here
« Reply #29 on: January 22, 2016, 06:41:55 AM »
Thanks Mike,
Simulate the system then test over millions of spins?
I don’t think anyone could simulate my system, but if they could then I would expect it to beat the very first 1 million spin trial. If it couldn't beat the first million spin trial then what would be the point of continuing? In fact, what would be the point of continuing the trial beyond say 200k spins? If the system can’t beat 200k spins then what’s the point of continuing? Even 100k should be defeated before bothering any further.
There are other factors worth considering, like realistic table limits and practical drawdowns. What’s the point of testing systems outside the reality of accepted gaming conditions?
 
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