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Author Topic: Let's talk about losing  (Read 16423 times)

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dobbelsteen

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2015, 01:47:08 PM »
A short run sample is a number of spins not an amount of money or credits.The short run sample for the even chances is about 200 spins. If the number of spins is larger, the ratio B/R is allways round 1
For the three dozens must be the occurrence percentages about equal 33,3%.
The common visitor of the casino plays allways a short run session and have a chanc of 50% at a profit or loss
 

palestis

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2015, 02:54:32 PM »
Losing sessions are inevitable.
This has nothing to do with roulette being beatable or not. This is a fact of gambling.
Even millionaire pro blackjack or poker players have devastating losing sessions.
How do you cope with loss?
What are your reactions, your thoughts? What is the next day?
A loss sure is a sad event.
In roulette a loss should be a controllable factor.  Meaning there should be a relationship between average wins per session vs. possible losses. It doesn't make sense to win $100-$200 every day, but when you lose you lose $10,000. And neither it makes sense to limit the losses to $50. You can't win $100, $200 very often with just a $50 risk. It's impossible. There is an ideal ratio of wins/losses. Just as there is a target profit ratio to B/R. Without these ratios worked out in advance as part of the overall strategy, no system is safe.
In roulette there is no such thing as shoot first ask questions later.
 
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Reyth

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2015, 05:07:01 PM »
A short run sample is a number of spins not an amount of money or credits.The short run sample for the even chances is about 200 spins. If the number of spins is larger, the ratio B/R is allways round 1
For the three dozens must be the occurrence percentages about equal 33,3%.
The common visitor of the casino plays allways a short run session and have a chanc of 50% at a profit or loss

Ok so if I am playing one number inside bet, how many spins should that be?  What do I have to do spin until the wins average out with the losses?
 

dobbelsteen

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2015, 08:35:48 PM »
The short run sample is more than 1M spins. This means that all discussions about probabilities of numbers has no sense. The anomalies and variance is too often and large.The analyses of short run samples can learn us much more about their features than the probability theory.
 

scepticus

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #19 on: December 30, 2015, 12:47:19 AM »
Try as you might, you can't even win one unit per day.  Over time the losses will consume your wins, leaving you a net loser.

If you don't believe me, then ask yourself some of the following questions.

When you quit, when can you return to gamble?
How long must you stay away from the table and why?
What constitutes a session and why?
If you hit and run, what magic take places while you're gone that enables you to win again?
Why can't you just stay and play?
How do you know when a streak will continue or when it will end?

Hit and run/ money management type of scenarios are what sell gambling books written by mediocre gambling authors.   However...time and time again, history has proven that the "hit and run" strategy is not a long term winning strategy.  The reason is...the house edge.  Each time you return to gamble, the house edge consume a little bit more from your bankroll, until eventually, it's all gone.

My advice is to stop focusing so much attention on the money management/hit and run nonsense and focus most of your attention on how to actually get the edge over the casino.

1 ) I don’t always win when I play but I win more than  I lose and that is what I have argued.  Mere  statements about losing “ over time “  have no relevance until that “time “ has elapsed .
2) I return to gamble on my next visit.
3) This is irrelevant to my play.
4)What constitutes a session for me is trying to win 100 units. If I don’t win that amount I have no specific leaving point - it depends on a number of factors .
5) I play hit and run .There is no magic involved .As I have explained a number of times I use two systems and Joint Probability. I know you don’t understand Joint Probability you only know marginal probability and don’t realise that there are  other forms of probability - as there are different types of ”Mean “.
6)  I can stay and play but prefer to run when in profit.
7 ) I don’t use “ streaks” so, again , this question is irrelevant.
8) “long term “is a meaningless  concept  unless you can enter  an actual figure into your calculation - it is conjecture, nothing more. Humans cannot live till infinity.
9) I did not include any Hit and Run or money management in the book I wrote.
10 ) I am quite happy to be thought a mediocre gambler. It means that casinos do not consider me a threat.
11) Please refer me to the “History “ that  has proven that the “ hit and run “ strategy is not a long term strategy .
12 )The “ House Edge “ is  a factor but is not the main factor as you seem to think. Why else would some online casinos offer NO Zero tables ?They have NO House Edge when playing. “Random” is the bettors enemy and NO ONE can foretell future winning numbers where Random operates.
13 ) You focus only on so called Advantage Play with no consideration of any others -   a normal trait of a fundamentalist who believe that theirs is the “ ONLY WAY“.
14 ) Why should we listen to your advice when you denigrate Methods  and yet you yourself  gave us your “ Last Five Number “ method . Sheer  hypocrisy  or stupidity and you can choose
 

scepticus

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #20 on: December 30, 2015, 01:51:38 AM »

I should have mentioned, Blue Angel,  that the main  advantage of playing Hit and Run is that any  profits are locked away so that in any session you don’t lose your  total table bankroll. The aim is to win more than your table bankroll over one or two sessions so that  an  overall profit  is made should a losing session occur.
On my last visit I bet with £1 chips - played 16 tables -  sat for 109 spins overall - lost with 5 zeros  - yet  won a total of  £ 46 .
The question I put to you is- Do you think I would have won more than that if I had stayed at only one table ?
I don’t know the answer to that but I do know that a Hit and Run Strategy serves me well so why should I change it ?

 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #21 on: December 30, 2015, 05:07:45 AM »

I should have mentioned, Blue Angel,  that the main  advantage of playing Hit and Run is that any  profits are locked away so that in any session you don’t lose your  total table bankroll. The aim is to win more than your table bankroll over one or two sessions so that  an  overall profit  is made should a losing session occur.
On my last visit I bet with £1 chips - played 16 tables -  sat for 109 spins overall - lost with 5 zeros  - yet  won a total of  £ 46 .
The question I put to you is- Do you think I would have won more than that if I had stayed at only one table ?
I don’t know the answer to that but I do know that a Hit and Run Strategy serves me well so why should I change it ?

Perhaps serves you well because you play that way, but it's not the case for everyone.
 

Birima

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #22 on: December 30, 2015, 11:32:04 AM »
Very true?  It might be very true for someone that has personally given up on system play due to a lack of deeper understanding of the conditions surrounding a play session.

Very true?  Seriously?  The house edge consumes all profit??  What are we robots without ability to construct a risk-win ratio to exceed the house edge?

No this is more of the same from Real and is practically thread hijacking, practically anyway.

Ok ok, the small part about focusing on getting the edge over the casino, that is very true.  I suspect that is what you meant anyway. : D

Hijacking is a mere negative view on 'Reals' contributions. He just advocates a different approach to beating roulette. I for myself stopped playing 'systems' after realising his 'inconvenient truth' showed remarkable similarities with my past 'system' ventures.
 

Harryj

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #23 on: December 30, 2015, 01:12:38 PM »
  Birma, if what Real did was simply to advocate an alternative method. I would have no quarrel with him. What he does is deliberately impede any discussions on any other subject. This I find unacceptable.

       Harry
 

Real

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Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2015, 01:37:18 PM »
Harry,

Perhaps you can point to a system that I have criticized that actually works?

« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 02:03:32 PM by Real »
 

Reyth

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #25 on: December 30, 2015, 01:58:12 PM »
Very true?  It might be very true for someone that has personally given up on system play due to a lack of deeper understanding of the conditions surrounding a play session.

Very true?  Seriously?  The house edge consumes all profit??  What are we robots without ability to construct a risk-win ratio to exceed the house edge?

No this is more of the same from Real and is practically thread hijacking, practically anyway.

Ok ok, the small part about focusing on getting the edge over the casino, that is very true.  I suspect that is what you meant anyway. : D

Hijacking is a mere negative view on 'Reals' contributions. He just advocates a different approach to beating roulette. I for myself stopped playing 'systems' after realising his 'inconvenient truth' showed remarkable similarities with my past 'system' ventures.

Ok my apologies.  I think the hijacking thing was a bit severe.  Good point. : )
 

Birima

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #26 on: December 30, 2015, 03:06:57 PM »
Quote
Ok my apologies.  I think the hijacking thing was a bit severe.  Good point. : )

Well, apologies was more then I expected  : )
 

Real

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Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #27 on: December 30, 2015, 03:10:31 PM »
Birma rules.  :)   -( By the way, that's a smiley face.  For some reason the forums programming never quite works right so they don't show.  It's kind of like the personal messages.  I've emailed Simple Machines to alert them.)
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 03:12:53 PM by Real »
 

scepticus

Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2015, 06:46:50 PM »

I should have mentioned, Blue Angel,  that the main  advantage of playing Hit and Run is that any  profits are locked away so that in any session you don’t lose your  total table bankroll. The aim is to win more than your table bankroll over one or two sessions so that  an  overall profit  is made should a losing session occur.
On my last visit I bet with £1 chips - played 16 tables -  sat for 109 spins overall - lost with 5 zeros  - yet  won a total of  £ 46 .
The question I put to you is- Do you think I would have won more than that if I had stayed at only one table ?
I don’t know the answer to that but I do know that a Hit and Run Strategy serves me well so why should I change it ?

Perhaps serves you well because you play that way, but it's not the case for everyone.

It serves a number of members here well. Dobbelsteen-Harry-Palestis. Yet we all bet differently.
It is a matter of choice .Do you lock in any existing profits or play on and perhaps have a bad run where you will lose your bankroll   PLUS any profits you already made. It depends on what level of risk you are prepared to take. My priority is to protect my bankroll so prefer not to expose it to unnecessary danger.Others - like yourself- might want to play on for a higher reward . We just choose different options.Winning is what it is all about- not how we play despite what the self-styled experts say.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: Let's talk about losing
« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2015, 07:05:51 PM »
Scep,
Sorry but I fail to see the difference.
It's not about greed,it's about if you have it or not,so simple.
If you play lot small sessions or fewer longer, whether you play for 1 unit by risking 10 or play for 10 gain by risking 100 doesn't make any difference for me.
Many before me have mentioned that playing for 1 unit profit is like fooling yourself...
You are English right?
And I thought that common sense is an English characteristic, I was wrong...!