Author Topic: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...  (Read 561 times)

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MickyP

A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« on: September 02, 2019, 04:41:23 PM »
Palestis Single Dozen System is a sound DOZENS approach to roulette. There are a few ways to play it and if you keep your head straight and your wits sharp then you should not lose with it. You make small consistent gains with this method. Players lose their nerve when they play it and I also believe that the platform they play on is designed to milk the player in ways not conducive to fair and acceptable roulette play morals.

Below are two posts by MrPerfect who it appears is trying to sabotage the Single Dozen System. Not hard to understand why.
MrPerfect you say that a felt dozen is not a valid bet selection because the numbers are spread out all over the wheel. I say BS! Based on research conducted by many many players including myself, a felt dozen has its merits as a bet selection and if played to expectation limits, the hit rate is fairly consistent around 60-75% over 100 spin cycles. With this information alone players can comfortably reach session goals within a 37-spin cycle. Players need to understand the system parameters and if they play less numbers in the dozen like I do then they should base their selection off recent spin history and number placements on the wheel.

Reply 1278 by MrPerfect
There are no valid triggers for dosens.  Dosen is not a valid bet selection, just a group of randomly scattered numbers on the wheel. If ball jump one number more or one number less, you will miss with your dosen. 
    Waiting some number of spins doesn't change probability of dosen to hit, waiting for few spins without dosen, or waiting for dosen to hit doesn't change probability on next spin. Waiting produce rare events hunting that results only in loss of the time.

Reply 1283 by MrPerfect
NANNI,  the thing is ... if we choose 12 numbers, our choice is better ( more useful ) to be motivated.  The question is not if ball has no chance to hit on any individual spin, but if this chance in reasonable amount of spins is higher then 12/37.
    It does not matter what we do, but we have to find a way to achieve > 12/37. If not, no win is possible on the long run. We may get lucky now and then, but if we do not earn enough to validate our time there playing, then why to play? And if we play for fun, then why bother with systems?

   Sistems should make money, triggers should be statistically motivated, rules of system should make sense. .. if not, it's not a system, but garbage.
   Folks speak now about play after few back to back ( virtual ) losses, but no one show that it makes sense or explain why it should produce profit. It's sad... 300 years casinos keep door open due to such a brilliant ideas like this one ( the topic).


MrPerfect, the single Dozen Triggers are statistically motivated. Take some time and read the thread from the first post; you may learn a thing or two.
The triggers work on expectation and are not a prediction method. I think this is where your confusion lies.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 04:45:22 PM by MickyP »
 

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2019, 05:09:15 PM »

MrPerfect.
  • Posts: 2216
  • Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
    « Reply #1 on: December 10, 2017, 01:25:35 PM
  • MickyP, gamblers fallacy is just based on false expectations believe.  Like religion.
  •     Better focus on something useful... instead of waiting something to happen, predict it.
       Imagine how life is simplified when you target 9 numbers and predict them 50% of the time correctly.  Even if you can get it 30% of the time correctly, it's still money .
        When you achieve it, no need to wait , chaise... just stay there and predict. If you are greedy like me, put some math in the middle.
30% or 50% correct with a prediction method is good according to you MrPerfect. The Single Dozen System gives a better rating over three spin cycles.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 05:14:41 PM by MickyP »
 

MrPerfect.

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2019, 05:20:50 PM »
 Mickey, unfortunately tradition of posting for a sake of posting is very strong in this community. 
   On his last post palestis speaks about rare b2b losses in comparison with miriads wins. Obviously he is not in touch with reality.
   Your posting is not in touch with reality as well. You speak about this system as any good one but do not produce any evidence.
  If you think that win / loss ratio affects probability,  then produce evidence supporting such thinking.
 

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2019, 07:40:18 PM »
There was always a tradition of challenging what others state and of asking unpleasant questions so we can all better understand what a poster is actually trying to say.
Your first line above is designed to intimidate me but I just have to question your motive for attempting to derail a thread that has enough posts for a psychology major to do a thesis on the reading impaired player.

What I would like is for you, MrPerfect, to explain why players can not use expectation to develop a system or method. Be careful how you answer this as you may realize in your answer that you too depend on expectation as prediction is not 100%.

Having said the above, I have valued your many threads and posts and I still think that you are a great roulette player. I also know know that you welcome a challenge even from a septic tank...lol :o
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 07:43:49 PM by MickyP »
 

Joe

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 07:59:17 PM »
I have to agree with Mr Perfect; win/loss ratio has nothing to do with winning, only value has. The value of a bet is the relationship between the probability (of winning) and the payout, the win/loss ratio is only about the probability.  The payouts (odds) imply a probability and if this implied probability is less than the actual probability of winning then you have value, otherwise you don't. it's that simple.  :)
The win/loss ratio of Palestis's bet isn't any higher than it should be according to probability, so there isn't any value in it.

The expectation is irrelevant because it applies only to long-run statistics, not the next bet or series of bets.
 
The following users thanked this post: MrPerfect.

MrPerfect.

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2019, 08:15:40 PM »
Thank you Joe. Reasonability is really needed in this place.
   Mickey,  there is only one truth. In the world of roulette its math. Not simple arithmetic,  but math.
   You can do simple test. Take many spins. 1m sample or alike. Put it in excel and count how many times after red was red and how many times it was black. Do same for 2 reds, 3 reds...ets. Make a table , organise it by values.
You will see with your own eyes by your own experience that waiting for few reds in the row, wins/ losses...ets... it does not change probability of event.
   You can do same test for any dosen,  quad,  line...ets.
  Or simply do not bother and continue post brilliant opinions based on what you think, as everyone else. 
    Do you really think l can be bothered to " intimidate" you? I post only to allow intelligent people to make their own judgment.   
 
The following users thanked this post: ahlidap

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2019, 08:18:55 PM »
MrPerfect, about your comment that Palestis and I are not in touch with reality; there is no need to sink to that level at all.

A lot of Palestis explanations about losses and B2B losses are recorded in the thread. He has given instruction and provided proof of his reasoning and why he depends on virtual losses. He has also explained about the benefit of playing this way on several tables (one at a time of course).

I have a different approach to roulette and shared a bit of it on the forum. The information I put on the forum is enough for players to use in creating their own approach. Psychologically, we are all made up differently and do not all have access to the same playing platforms. I play B/M tables only because I have so many casinos around me but others can only play online. Our levels of discipline are different and our MM if we have one at all is also different. Some play continuously on one table while some, like me, play sessions on different tables. Others play continuously on multiple tables and so on.

With regard to your calling the forum still born (dead from the beginning), you were active on the forum for some time; even had your own section. How did you manage your section and do you think you did enough to excite players enough to look into VB as an approach? We has some good conversations and I took away some valuable information that I have used to improve my play. If results are what is needed then the effort must come from you (each individual). The forum allows for networking (private) between players and i think it is a good thing.

I am not attacking you. I am standing my ground.
 

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2019, 08:29:52 PM »
Do you really think l can be bothered to " intimidate" you? I post only to allow intelligent people to make their own judgment.   

I take it you exclude me from people who can make a judgement call.... ;D ;D ;D ;D
 

MrPerfect.

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2019, 10:36:34 PM »
Mickey, lm not personal. I do not judge people, do not include them or exclude them from anywhere... l just look posts and answer them.
  My section was a social experiment. It gave me answers l was looking for. It had some interesting ideas to call attention of people who could be useful for me. When need for such people stoped,  l removed anything useful from it.
  Bebedictus was right in his last post. Quality of system players went very down with the time. Before they used to have ideas , now they just post whatever.  It's due to luck of education.  Educational system is very broken in the west. It doesn't teach how to think, and to beat roulette a person has to be thinker. 
   Roulette , belive me or not, was created in order to allow people on specific stage of personal development to rase cash quick.  It's not an ultimate goal or achievement, but rather a step to jump higher.
 

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2019, 02:10:41 PM »
I understand what you are saying MrPerfect. Over a period I became frustrated, not with roulette but with the forum. I will have to create a very long post to explain why but even if I do, the majority will not take note or understand.

Ken said it so well,,, the forum is filled with ways how not to play roulette. His meaning may be a little different to your but the underlying message is the same.

When it comes to maths and roulette, the two are inseparable. The understanding of why certain things happen and what should be done when is what most players have difficulty with. Just read the posts and although there is no mechanical system that will have players win day in and day out , so many keep searching for the impossible.

I did a test on a method I play and found that although progressions increase profits they distort the risk aspect of the game. I played a game (test) with progression to a win then did the test again without continuing the progression past the first phase of the progression. I found that progressions are not the best option especially when you play a method with a 60% plus hit rate. No special play to recover losses, just play on and stop when the gain target for the session has been reached. Roulette is a very simple game.
 

Jesper

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2019, 05:16:32 PM »
Right Micky, the game not contain so much "skill" as use to be in players opinions
 

MrPerfect.

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2019, 06:36:36 PM »
 Yes, who cares about skill?  1 cent bets is what you need, right?
  Some guys  have no need for trolls,  they are trolling themselves! 
 

MickyP

Re: A Not So Perfect World, Mr...
« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2019, 03:04:30 AM »
Jesper, you took one sentence from my post and ran with it. Wrong perception. When I say roulette is easy I refer to the context of the discussion. Roulette is easy if you understand what to do and why you are doing it.

The game is made simply by qualified actions that requires skill and this is possible by playing the wheel. The progression test example wasn't presented with enough detail so although unintended my point about lack of understanding was proved in your post.