Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: Question about variance, lifetime session  (Read 1906 times)

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thomasleor

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2019, 02:12:10 PM »
Well, Thomas, many members of this forum (including its illustrious owner) apparently don't agree with you that edge is important, because they discount the casino's edge. It would be inconsistent to assert that the edge they have matters but the casino's doesn't. At least Kav is being consistent.  ;D

Honestly, it beggars belief.


I don´t know if you suffer from some form of dyslexia or another cryptic inability to read and correctly interpret what is in front of you on the screen.

I was speaking about the EDGE of your bet selection, not the HE, The latter is insignificant compared to a Bet Selection that is based on a certain set of AP inductive conditions that determines its successful implementation.


Roulette coder is pure crap, btw. It´s analytical approach doesnt stretch beyond its limited set of parameters for a bet selection.

But keep it up Flat Earther, you´ll soon get there.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 02:18:44 PM by thomasleor »
 

scepticus

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2019, 03:30:55 PM »
An  “Edge “ is a mathematically calculated advantage ..  The casino has such an  Edge in roulette and  it is based on the assumption that the Bettor cannot do better than Random in his bets . That is unquestionable and only the ignorant  would disagree.

What the Bettor tries to do is use his  knowledge of maths, his gambling  experience allied to logic to obtain  a bigger advantage than the casino’s .  This can only be based on an assumption .There can be no certainty that either the casino or the  “ individual Bettor ”  will be an overall winner . It is foolish to think otherwise.

 

kav

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Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2019, 03:52:03 PM »
Kav, if you're looking for a guarantee of profit within 500 spins, you're in the wrong business.  ;) And why would you impose such an artificial restriction if not trying to score points to fit some agenda? To be honest I'm not sure what point you're trying to make? Ok, suppose we agree that it all comes down to variance (which you call "luck"). That seems to be a rather odd (not to say negative) point of view for someone running a roulette site.  :-\   Why then bother creating systems at all? why not just scatter your chips randomly over the table? After all, it's all luck! 

My point is that just because there's a negative edge, this doesn't mean you have to be a loser. I hope you agree this is a positive message.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 04:18:13 PM by kav »
 
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kav

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Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2019, 03:53:10 PM »
thomasleor please quit personal attacks.
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2019, 04:48:54 PM »
Okey guys, thanks for answers, good, pretty quet difficult theme :D
About math, lot people says it disocvered just people, in universe, or in science the math does not appear. So if we trying to see the roulette without math, what is your opinion?
And : what is difference between positive variance and negative variance.
Is it right, that if we play more and more spins, the house edge increasingly shows, and the variance can be better handle?
 

Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2019, 05:01:24 PM »
Averages & percentages in long runs devolve into the realm of theoretical rather than practical because the number of spins involved exceed what a player normally encounters in a single session, many sessions and even a lifetme of sessions!

Bet selection is simply placing the chips on the felt (putting the boat in the water).  How much we wager is setting our sails to catch the winds (variance).  The changes in air temperature naturally bring about a change in the winds, like seasons throughout the year.

Sometimes the winds become so great that it can damage our boat and so we pay attention to the weather forecast and hit the closest shore in an attempt to avoid the worst weather.  We will set sail another day! :D

« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 05:05:19 PM by Third »
 
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scepticus

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #36 on: August 03, 2019, 05:17:37 PM »
Gia
There is no PoSITIVE variance or NEGATIVE variance  - just variance.  Variance only means that the winning  numbers  VARY. and we cannot influence how and when they occur.  Sometimes they occur in streaks  and sometmes they don't . Sometimes a number will occur two , three or 4 times within ten  spins and sometimes that same number will not appear in 40 or more  spins . We just don't know - we can only make an  educated guess .
The House Edge does not vary - it applies to every spin. It only means that the casino pays unfair odds , If you place one chip on a number  and it wins the casino pays you 35 /1 when the  TRUE odds are 36 /1 .  This saves the casino one chip in every 37 which is 2.7%.
 
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kav

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Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #37 on: August 03, 2019, 06:26:42 PM »
Personally, by positive variance I mean luck in favor of the player, by negative I mean bad luck against the player.

It is true that as we increase the played spins, the variance (luck) can play less of a role and the house edge importance may increase. For example, if you play just one number srtaight up and you hit it on the first spin, you have an amazing positive result and who cares about house edge. As you play more and more spins though you realize that you can not keep hitting that number on every spin.
 
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Stratege

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #38 on: August 03, 2019, 07:39:32 PM »
Very lively discussion! I believe, Kav, that we must distinguish between variance for numbers and variance for units in bankroll. The variance on a session may be to the advantage of the player but his progress may cause him to lose units. Many players are looking for the emotions of the game, so for them the loss is greater than 2.7% because there is no valid reasoning in their behavior.

Then, contrary to what Scepticus thinks, for some players, winning is not a hypothesis, it is a certainty that asserts itself regularly in time, in this case, the notion of "variance" is not important. but the "% of profit" and the "time". Statistical proof or explanation by Scepticus would be preferable. For my part, I apologize for not giving my proof (because it is positive, so it has a great value), explain that would be like giving the combination of my safe (strongbox), it would not be safe these days !). :D
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 07:41:12 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #39 on: August 03, 2019, 07:46:10 PM »


Even formula one racers make pit stops for a "wheel change". XD



Tires get worn out, lubrication needs to be changed and if we keep running at profitable speed as these things happen, we are more likely to crash. :D
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 07:55:14 PM by Third »
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #40 on: August 03, 2019, 09:01:22 PM »
Yes, vry likely discossion? Very lot opinion I read? One question:

WHO HEAS RIGHT?

Guys, a lot pf opinion i have read, bjt what is this? please someone tell me one pnion WHAT IS ROULETTE.  Just tell me what is roulette.

And tell me how is the best way to beat it!!!

You cant answer? Maybe you are a loooser? Or just u are a study as I am? And?

 

Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #41 on: August 03, 2019, 09:32:15 PM »
We have to bet more when we win than when we lose.  That's pretty much it. 

If you design a system to do that, you will win, as long as you have sufficient bankroll which is enabled by a conservative enough method to catch some positive variance.

I say "some positive variance" because its quite possible to show a profit with over 2 SD negative variance present in the results.

I think I might be correct to say that everyone who has an actual, reliable & profitable system (i.e. roulette system), does this.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 09:39:51 PM by Third »
 
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scepticus

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #42 on: August 03, 2019, 11:05:41 PM »
" winning is  an  hypothesis " Stratege ? Where did I say That ?

 " Statistical proof or explanation " of what ?
 Perhaps you would give " statistical proof or explanation "  of your own claims ?
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2019, 02:44:29 AM »
What is std?

Just tell me, what is roulette, without math. Amd how can we beat.

Third, be design a system to win. How can we do this? How cam player overcome to HE and variance? How can a player crate a peoftable system? When 99 percent of people JUST f***IN LOOOOOOOOSSSSSEEEE. FRO
M. THIS. GAME.
 

Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2019, 04:33:21 AM »
I will let some else answer your question about STD's, but I can tell you it is not this.

SD is a way to monitor the outcome of all the spins, no matter how complex the pattern and determine the statistical rarity of the sequence.  For me, its kind of like a weather forecast.  Just as the weather makes patterns when there is likely to be a tornado, SD fluctuations can show us the relative volatility of our sessions.  I like nice and calm statistical movements, without massive swings back and forth.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 04:36:45 AM by Third »