Author Topic: Question about variance, lifetime session  (Read 36448 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

juice

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2019, 08:52:43 PM »
If you have enough bankroll to carry you through the losses then at a point you will be down by the house edge margin but the majority of players lose due to variance.

What is variance? you need to understand this in relation to your system/method as variance is linked to bet selection, positive and you win, negative and you lose. Variance is subjective.

Even if there was no house edge players would still lose because many play static systems and they do not test enough and stay within the parameters of their play. Loss equals weakness of character. The house edge is like the warning on cigarette packets. It will claim its value in the very long run. Any player who plays the long run is simply stupid.

Yep.
If you know what you are doing and believe in the method that you yourself develop, the House Edge and Variance are nothing but the Boogie Man.
Sorry to say, but if a player is still worried about these things, the plays that they are using are no good.
Unless you are playing for pennies / small stakes in which case it's a joke to begin with.

Mike!

It grows, the turnover a lot of times take it! A good variance for long can make a winner or loss, for  so long as 100000 spins. Which few do on a BM casino.  I have not count my lifetime spins, but know some 24 hours I did 5000. That's is not common in BM, and overlay as traveling is not included. In USA they have 2 zeros, and tax of win, they are not honest claim they live of the game. I do some wins , but that is not my living. If I even though about live on gambling, I would hesitate, as I am some want to do something for living  the society have some benefit from. My last small win I gave away, to the girl local scouts here (120 Euro)

Well, I'm in the USA ( and damn proud of it ) , and I play on a double zero wheel, and prefer it.
And BTW, I play full time and I win, period.
And BTW, I am being honest.
Any player or more importantly and wanna be better novice player that reads your crap claim that you wrote should know that you are saying things that you know nothing about.
Always know that conditions are different everywhere.
Ex. In Atlantic city, double zero wheels pay half back on ec's, a form of the French en prison style play.
Now if you can't understand that there is a way to use this to your advantage then there is no help for you.
You get an extra green pocket and a 2.7% h.e. Not to mention that you can cover both green spots on the felt with one bet.
People can have and are entitled to opinion, but come on!
And as for doing something that others can benefit from? What does that even mean?
So pro gamblers have nothing to contribute?

 
The following users thanked this post: kav, thomasleor

Stratege

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2019, 09:27:45 AM »
"Ex. In Atlantic city, double zero wheels pay half back on ec's, a form of the French en prison style play."

Thank you Juice for that clarification. I agree with your speech on some points. For my part, I don’t appreciate the pessimistic ideas (and without rational or scientific basis) that are presented as truths. However, we must accept that things in life are often paradoxical. So, on all roulette forums, we'll see chronic losers explain what to think about the game and how to play. I remind some members and visitors that with a losing method, there is not really a better way to play. The house will take its advantage, on average according to the sum of the wagers. It’s with a winning method that there are techniques that will be better than others.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 09:29:58 AM by Stratege »
 
The following users thanked this post: Third

Joe

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2019, 10:29:01 AM »
@thomasleor, you're wrong. What's funny is that you actually did an example calculation using the formula for variance, but appeared to not realize that since N (the sample size) is in the denominator, it follows that variance is inversely proportional to sample size, not directly proportional to it. I kind of understand where you're coming from though, because from the point of view of a roulette player, more spins means greater chance of hitting the "run from hell" (or a strong negative deviation).

And I said the effect of the variance lessens the more spins you play, which isn't the same thing as saying that you will encounter fewer long losing (or winning) runs. Clearly, since the law of large numbers guarantees that the probability will converge to its ideal value, the deviations around the average must lessen over time, not increase, so more spins means increasing precision. 

Variance is not the problem to be solved; you need to concentrate on getting an edge and the variance will take care of itself. It's funny how some will deny that it's the house edge which causes losses (as if it can be ignored), but at the same time are searching for an advantage. What is this advantage if not an edge? and the house edge is still an edge, but for the casino and against the player. You need to cancel the house advantage (plus a bit more) by your own play so that you have the edge, but that edge is not different in kind or principle from the standard "house" edge. And notice that I'm not being "negative" (insisting that you can't win). You can win but you must get an edge which at least cancels the HA; it's not enough to play around with progressions, which only ever affects the variance (increases it).

And the house edge does not increase with more spins. How can it when it's fixed? What seems like an increase is due to the compounding effect of the HA, but the HA itself never changes.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 10:33:19 AM by Joe »
 

kav

  • https://www.youtube.com/c/rouletteman
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2396
  • Thanked: 1345 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2019, 10:46:46 AM »
With all due respect...
Variance is everything. It is also called luck.
Otherwise you would see much more people leaving the casino with  losses at 2,7% of their total bets....
You talk like there are not long winning or losing streaks or like they don't matter.
Go to a Gambler's Anonymous meeting and tell them they lost 2,7% of what they played. They would laugh.
With your logic, one should on average bet $500K to lose $10K. We know $10K is gone much faster than that or it can make you $50K easily with a few good hits.Believing in the fatality of house edge so much, is GF, it is like believing, just because there are 18 black and 18 Red numbers the outcome after 300 will be 50%-50%.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 11:00:22 AM by kav »
 

Jesper

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #19 on: August 03, 2019, 11:02:17 AM »
If we do a real long test, we will see not the loss at 2.7% of the bankroll, but of the amount we bet. If we lose 1000 units in 10000 bets, we have lost 1000, and it is 100% of the bankroll, but may be close to the HA in the turn over.

The chance of win is always there, but should decrease if we play very long.  With an advantage for the player the winning probability will go against 100% if the player can stand the variance until the advantage takes over, and it may be 1000 of spins and deep holes in the pocket during the way.

 

Joe

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #20 on: August 03, 2019, 11:19:00 AM »
Kav, the 2.7% is turnover, not percentage of your bank. The formula is

Edge (Yield)  = Profit or Loss /  total capital employed  Try running a simulation using any system and/or money management you like. Keep track of all the stakes placed and the running profit or loss. You'll find that the above formula manifests very quickly at -2.7% and stays the same no matter how many spins you play, or how much you bet, assuming you have no edge.
Try doing some tests changing the house edge to zero, or positive. What affect does it have on your bottom line for exactly the same sets of spins?

I agree that if you have no edge then variance is the most important factor which allows you to win -- in the short term. That's why progressions are so popular; they increase the variance. But with no edge you have to accept that you increase the negative as well as the positive variance. You can't have one without the other.  But increase your edge and the positive variance will increase and the negative variance will decrease proportionately. That should be the goal.

People are obsessed with finding the extremes and how bad something can get because they think it's all about controlling the variance. It's completely the wrong approach.
 

scepticus

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2019, 11:46:02 AM »
The Term " The Long Run " is misleading . What it  really means is " sooner or later "so kav is right here - you can lose your bankroll  quickly ! .If anyone fears the House Edge or Variance the answer is simple - Don't Bet ! ".
 

kav

  • https://www.youtube.com/c/rouletteman
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2396
  • Thanked: 1345 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2019, 12:02:26 PM »
In my post I used the word bet (meaning total betting amount). Intentionally I didn't use the word bankroll. So no need to explain where the 2,7% refers to.

Imagine this scenario:
I give you the edge. We change the rules of roulette. When zero comes you get one unit bonus and you don't lose your bet. Now you, the player, have the advantage. Still, you can not beat the game. You can not guarantee you'll be in profit after 500 spins*. Because what determines your loss/profit in the short-mid term is variance. There is no way to guarantee you'll be in profit after 500 or 1000 spins even if you had the "edge"!

If the negative edge you are so afraid of is 2,7% then what will you do with negative variance which can amount to 20 or 30%?!

There is no long run. In the long run we are all dead. There is only short and mid run. And mid-run is created by combining short runs.

*(the only way would be to bet all numbers, but this no true system, other than that there is no way to guarantee profit although you have the advantage)
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 12:29:46 PM by kav »
 
The following users thanked this post: thomasleor, Third

kav

  • https://www.youtube.com/c/rouletteman
  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2396
  • Thanked: 1345 times
  • Gender: Male
Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2019, 12:14:34 PM »
Just because 1mil players after 1mil spins on average will lose near 2,7% of their bets, doesn't mean this will happen to any one of them. There will be winners, big winners, losers and big losers. And the average will be -2,7%. So what. How do you know if he or the other will be a loser or a winner? The same goes if you have a positive advantage. If many players played many spins with an advantage of say 3%, then on average they would win 3% of their total bets. But this doesn't guarantee YOU will win. And I only care about MY performance, not the average of 1000 players over many 1000s of spins.

Averages combined with "long run" are very dangerous parameters if you want to make definitive conclusions.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 12:21:08 PM by kav »
 
The following users thanked this post: thomasleor, Third

Jesper

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2019, 12:24:25 PM »
I have seen from my play on NOZ, the no HA , seems do have some but not a great impact, pro session.  At the time when there was no time limit before they took the 10% commission, we could let the play run until we had a plus.

Now with the time limit, we must close the game at any new high, defending us from a situation when it closes with minus.   I had my game opened for weeks sometimes. If we close on minus, no commission, no win, but  a loss.

We have then to pay commission next time for recouping the loss. This make a large difference.  It is not just to do the HA math. 

The units has also some impact.If we can bet cents, does not mean we bet one, we can bet 100 or more, the possibility to bet   100, 111,121, or a part of the bankroll with minimum rounding.  If the min bet is 100 cent, we can only bet 100,200,300 and so on.

What has some impact of the result.
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

thomasleor

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #25 on: August 03, 2019, 12:24:55 PM »
I understand Kav´s reply and position versus the ignorant response from Joe Shmoe. Variance, in roulette especially, is not an easy thing to understand.

Can we turn such a variance into our advantage based on something we can apply versus any given wheel? Sure, over at VRTech we have as a group of 20 good roulette players implemented a variety of platforms that we use to apply a specific BET SELECTION towards any given wheel.

In roulette Edge and variance is everything.

Contrary to Joe Shmoe´s erroneous retort, a good roulette player looks at his BET SELECTION versus the wheel spun numbers as his prime weapon of strategic profit and positive outcome in any given session.

Let's say his bet selection is 14 numbers, construed as such out of a specific sector predicting algorithm, based on the wheel designated order of numbers.

A blind bet in this specific example (any given number selection of 14 numbers) gives us 14/37=37.8% chance of said Bet Selection winning in any given bet against the Casino.

Negative Variance here will increase with the amount of spun numbers increasing during the session, challenging our players bet selection (be it fixed, or changeable, according to the available sector predicting algorithm). 

Suppose our player implements a strategy and system that enables his Bet selection of 14 numbers to return a win-loss ratio of lets say 9/11, i.e 11 made bets, where 9 are won with a dynamically chosen bet selection and only 2 lost. The win-loss ratio is thus here 9/11 ( 82%) on all made bets.

Our player now finds himself in a territory where his bet selection versus the wheel, on a specific set of spins and made bets, has produced a positive variance curve, one where the House Edge becomes an insignificant factor of no influence in the given play due to the current Edge of 82%-37.8%=44.2% (in the players favor over the House during the given participation in the game).

Such a variance curve can, for example, look like this on his real-time platform that displays the action in real-time.



As you see, by implementing a real-time variance curve for his bet selection versus the spun numbers, and a good system core that incorporates a good sector predicting algorithm, the player manages to know when to bet, and when to avoid bets due to the curve going below the moving average line and into negative territory where the players bet selection results in more losses than wins.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 12:28:58 PM by thomasleor »
 

Jesper

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2019, 12:30:34 PM »
The theoretical math has infinity, at infinity spins all will show as expected.  It is right, the expected value will hit the players as a group, and individuals may lose more or less, some will win more or less. Important, some will be very lucky, and win a lot. The heavy  losers are fewer, as the sky is the limit winning, and the bankroll is the limit losing.
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

Joe

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2019, 01:22:43 PM »
Imagine this scenario:
I give you the edge. We change the rules of roulette. When zero comes you get one unit bonus and you don't lose your bet. Now you, the player, have the advantage. Still, you can not beat the game. You can not guarantee you'll be in profit after 500 spins*. Because what determines your loss/profit in the short-mid term is variance. There is no way to guarantee you'll be in profit after 500 or 1000 spins even if you had the "edge"!

If the negative edge you are so afraid of is 2,7% then what will you do with negative variance which can amount to 20 or 30%?!
Kav, if you're looking for a guarantee of profit within 500 spins, you're in the wrong business.  ;) And why would you impose such an artificial restriction if not trying to score points to fit some agenda? To be honest I'm not sure what point you're trying to make? Ok, suppose we agree that it all comes down to variance (which you call "luck"). That seems to be a rather odd (not to say negative) point of view for someone running a roulette site.  :-\   Why then bother creating systems at all? why not just scatter your chips randomly over the table? After all, it's all luck!  ;D

My message is a positive one. Although the edge is "fixed" by the casino, in the sense that it isn't controlled or varied by the betting public or bookmakers (as is the case with sports betting), that doesn't mean it can't be overcome by skilled bet selection. My contention is that you're much more like to succeed if you take into account the physical parameters, but I'm not entirely ruling out other ways of getting an edge.

Thomas is correct in that variance can be tricky to understand, since he obviously doesn't understand it. He seems more interested in plugging his excel toys.

This whole discussion about variance is a red herring. The point is not to reduce the variance but to increase the edge.

It reminds me of novice sports bettors who devote all their time and effort to picking winners. But you can have many winners and still fail to make a profit, and conversely have very few winners yet make a large profit. They don't understand that making a profit (which is the whole point of betting) isn't about getting lots of winners, but finding value bets.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 01:31:54 PM by Joe »
 

thomasleor

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2019, 01:45:37 PM »

This whole discussion about variance is a red herring. The point is not to reduce the variance but to increase the edge.


Ok, people. Joe Shmoe has finally revealed his true identity.



To think we got one of these rare specimens on this forum. Heck, Kav should charge an entrance fee to display him Saturdays and Sundays. ;D

On a side note, any good roulette player knows that increasing the edge is one of the key winning factors in the game, but negating the influence of variance makes you a flat earther.  ;)
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 01:55:37 PM by thomasleor »
 

Joe

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2019, 02:01:14 PM »
Well, Thomas, many members of this forum (including its illustrious owner) apparently don't agree with you that edge is important, because they discount the casino's edge. It would be inconsistent to assert that the edge they have matters but the casino's doesn't. At least Kav is being consistent.  ;D

Honestly, it beggars belief.

And if anyone wants to see for themselves that edge really is important, download a little program from my website called Edge Analyzer. This question comes up again and again, but certain people never seem to learn and remain stuck on their flat earth.  ;D
http://www.roulettecoder.com/simulators.html [nofollow]
« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 02:06:53 PM by Joe »