### Author Topic: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat  (Read 301 times)

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#### Third

##### The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« on: August 01, 2019, 06:26:45 PM »
I begin this post with the personal understanding that bet selection is irrelevant for improving the odds received and can actually make things worse due to constantly switching targets.  It is because of this that I write this post with the resolution to only play Banker, which has a house edge of .0106, if played exclusively.

With this resolution, one can simply follow the outcomes and easily measure variance, SD, etc.

However, there is one problem that presents itself to my mind which seems quite insidious.  Banker pays a commission of .25 per won bet to the house.  So, as one is playing, they will notice that instead of being even or slightly ahead, they might be slightly behind or even with their balance.

Now, some of the "unexpected unevenness" is because of variance but not all of it, right?  Some of it is actually due to the HE and cannot be statistically expected to be recouped.  If we try and recoup more than the amount of the HE, we will be tilting statistical expectancy farther in the favor of the house.

If anything is wrong with what I have said above, that will need to be resolved first, in order to correct my misunderstanding of the fundamental principles of playing Baccarat.  The issue about bet selection is not subject to correction, however (its my firmly held and unwavering opinion, just sayin').

Now, assuming what I have said above is correct, what I have resolved to do, is monitor the HE (\$1.06 per 100 bets placed, with a \$1 base unit) along with variance and my bank balance.  If I find that Banker has not paid me enough, I intend to weigh that against the HE that is due and statistically pursue the difference,

For example, I have placed 100 bets and my balance is down \$5 from the all time high, but I am up \$5 since the start of the session.  I will subtract the HE of \$1.06 and pursue \$3.94 as legitimate profit to be gained, placing a bet of \$5, instead of the full \$6.

This is such a bizarre way to have to play and I am such a neophyte, that I feel the need to post this in order to get input from people more knowledgeable about this than I am, to make sure that I am on the right track.

First, it would be nice just to get someone to acknowledge what I am saying even makes sense at all!

TIA!
« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 06:36:37 PM by Third »

#### Jesper

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2019, 07:13:53 PM »
Banker wins more often, but there is a commission. If we back the banker in a long martingale, and win, we may have lostwin the  it in commission.

#### Third

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2019, 11:09:36 PM »
Right.  Its OK to compensate for the commission with extra bets BUT only to a point and my point is that this point is the HE amount of \$1.06 per 100 bets placed, with \$1 wagers.

According to my understanding, we simply cannot attempt to recover that amount from the missing Banker commission but have to leave it on the table as we go from all time high to all time high.

This is all my personal theory and I have made it up all on my own, which is why I am looking for someone who knows better than I do about these things, to confirm or deny what I have said.

Let me give you a really great idea as to why betting Banker is better, regardless of commission.

« Last Edit: August 01, 2019, 11:13:02 PM by Third »

#### Third

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2019, 02:51:01 PM »
I am thinking the actual model I need to use is to track the total size of all my wagers and then apply the HE to those and use that as the unrecoverable benchmark.

#### Third

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2019, 04:46:23 AM »
Ok my final update on the game of Baccarat.  I am going to harsh the mellow here so if you are a hard core baccarat fan, this is your opportunity to click away...  *queue jeopardy music*

1) Banker Commission -- This is a massive ripoff, destroying the ability to recover properly after a negative variance swing.  When your chop wins turn into losses, you understand very quickly how absolutely horrible this is.

2) Player -- Banker is so heavily skewed toward hitting, there is a massive risk here of running into worse sequences than would normally be seen in an EC game -- its far worse than roulette in fact and roulette has a .027 HE!

So to put it simply and without further ado, I think Baccarat is a ripoff game that is packaged as the ideal gambler's solution for EC chances but nobody ever discusses the above issues; I had to discover them for myself.

I don't recommend that anyone play Baccarat.

« Last Edit: August 08, 2019, 04:52:30 AM by Third »

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2019, 10:20:21 AM »

I don't recommend that anyone play Baccarat.

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#### scepticus

##### Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2019, 10:23:22 AM »

I don't recommend that anyone play Baccarat.