Author Topic: Help With EC SD Calculations  (Read 542 times)

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UnlikelySam

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2019, 03:21:43 AM »
Awesome Joe , reminds me of this post I made not very long ago :

The formula for Z-score is :

Z = (W - (N*P) ) / squareroot (N*P * (1 - P) )

W - Total number of wins.

N - Total number of bets placed.

P - Probability factor of bet actually winning.

A Z-score of  :

1.0 means 16% chance win was due to pure-luck.

2.0 means 2.3% chance win was due to pure-luck.

3.0 means 0.13% chance win was due to pure-luck.

Anything higher than 3 is a bonus and implies a fantastic system/method...

Example :

High Low EC betting strategy

Wins (W) - 30

Total bets ( N) - 35

Probability of winning (P) - 18/37 = 0.4865

Substitute those values into the Equation below:

Z = (W - (N*P) ) / squareroot (N*P * (1 - P) )

Z = ( 30 - ( 35 * 0.4865) ) / squareroot ( 35 * 0.4865 * (1 - 0.4865) ) = 4.387

We round it off to 4.39 ... So a Z-score of 4.39 great stuff... ;)

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,2754.msg46554.html#msg46554
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 03:26:00 AM by UnlikelySam »
 

scepticus

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2019, 03:30:54 AM »
Yes , but the z score can only  be calculated after the events . What newbies are looking for is what to bet BEFORE the event . After the event /s we know if we are in profit or loss .
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2019, 03:38:13 AM »
Scep yes very true indeed... That is exactly what they are looking for ; that and a polished plug and play HG :D ;)

Unfortunately Z-score wouldn't apply to that but rather to put it bluntly to see if a system "sucks" according to the number of actual bets placed vs the win ratio...  :-\   More of an evaluating process... Sorry Newbies :'(
 

Bebediktus

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2019, 05:42:33 AM »
All this math is fine, but you it want apply not to right object...so numbers is not to what you must that all apply...
 

Joe

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2019, 09:48:08 AM »
Joe, can you look to your PM box  ?
I've replied to your pm.  :D
 

Third

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2019, 05:02:50 AM »
Thanks guys.  All extremely helpful!

All I want to know is "how far off the beam" are the results in my game and SD is a great way to quantify that. :D
 

dobbelsteen

Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2019, 08:51:35 AM »
To get a real performance of a system, you can better take some 100 spins samples and compute the average winpercentages .The fast manner is an Excel simulation but you can also use a RNG roulette in the practice mode.100 Spins sample is , because a player session is not larger. Samples of more than 150 spins are senseless.