### Author Topic: Help With EC SD Calculations  (Read 1969 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

#### Third

##### Help With EC SD Calculations
« on: July 28, 2019, 06:53:23 PM »
Hey everybody!

Anyone can calculate the percentage chances of a hit based on a series of EC losses (LLLLL) but when it comes to more complex series (LLLWWLLLLW), it would seem we need the help of SD, no?

I would like to make these calculations in my head to a rough degree of accuracy.  How would I approach the series of LLLWWLLLLW ?

In my mind, I would say, 7 losses in the last 10 spins; what is a quick way of estimating SD here?

Sorry for the burden, I am just busy testing and figured I would ask for help!

#### Sputnik

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2019, 06:19:05 AM »

You use two or three examples in your mind.
Then you split in half or take one third or any amount.

For example with two examples.

12 versus 2 is 2.5 SD
14 versus 2 is 3.0 SD

Memorize them.

Now LLLWLLL is 6 verus 1
That would be half of 12 versus 2 = 2.5 SD

So the value is 1.25 SD

Cheers

The following users thanked this post: Third

#### scepticus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2019, 10:25:28 AM »
Nice Patrik  but is it as simple as that ?

Thanks.

The following users thanked this post: Third

#### Sputnik

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2019, 01:20:10 PM »

Any one can make a chart and memorize.

For example

3 versus 1 = 1.0
6 versus 1 = 2.0
9 versus 1 = 2.5 actually value 2.7 but simple to use average value

I attach excel sheet for the Z-Score, Roulette 0 & 00 and Baccarat

Cheers

The following users thanked this post: scepticus, Third, fiben7

#### Joe

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2019, 03:30:51 PM »
If you're playing online and using a software tracker, why not just program the formula in?

SD = (W - 0.4865 * N) / sqrt(0.2498 * N)

Where W is the number of WINS and N is the number of spins.

eg using your example of 7 losses in 10 spins this equates to 3 wins, so W = 3 and N = 10.

SD = (3 - 0.4865 * 10) / (sqrt(0.2498 * 10) = -1.180
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 03:34:43 PM by Joe »

The following users thanked this post: Third

#### scepticus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2019, 03:55:00 PM »
O.K   but how does this  help us in choosing our bets ?

#### Jesper

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2019, 05:31:18 PM »
Screp it does not, but the game is  fun.  Today I have seen not anybody here can make the diff between probability and odds, that is not the same, The odds are on a EC lower than probability, This I know, but my English is no good enough to explain. PLS  go google.  This is very hard to explain. There are at least 3 models of probability. The math, which come close, but never describe the world, And the freq, which tell something close, and the sub, which see it as lack of info. All models are used in science.

#### Joe

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2019, 05:50:01 PM »
Today I have seen not anybody here can make the diff between probability and odds, that is not the same, The odds are on a EC lower than probability,
If what you mean by odds is the payout, then yes it's lower because of the house edge, but this applies to all bets so I think maybe you mean something else.

Otherwise probability is just another way of expressing the odds, and  vice-versa.

#### Joe

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2019, 05:57:38 PM »
O.K   but how does this  help us in choosing our bets ?
Maybe Third will tell us how he plans to use it.

#### scepticus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2019, 07:39:07 PM »
As I understand it jesper, a probability  is still  a probability  even without any odds . So , yes , they are obvioulsy  different  . Fun ?  Yes  but no help in arriving at a solution . The fun is " working " on an idea  until it " confesses " ! and finding it's" confession " is true  when betting it at a B& M  casino  !

#### Bebediktus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2019, 08:16:50 PM »
If you're playing online and using a software tracker, why not just program the formula in?

SD = (W - 0.4865 * N) / sqrt(0.2498 * N)

What is meaning of this coef. - 0.2498 ?
Maybe you can write something universal formula for any amount of numbers to play ?

The following users thanked this post: Joe

#### vitorwally

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2019, 08:21:52 PM »
0.4865 is an approximation of 18/37.
0.2498 is an approximation of 18/37 × 19/37.

Am I right Joe?

The following users thanked this post: Joe

#### Joe

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2019, 09:03:53 PM »
That's right vitorwally. The formula which applies to any group of numbers is

SD = (W - N * p) / sqrt(N * p * (1 - p))   Wherestands for the probability of a win.
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 09:08:27 PM by Joe »

The following users thanked this post: Bebediktus

#### Bebediktus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2019, 09:12:20 PM »
Thanks
« Last Edit: July 29, 2019, 09:20:15 PM by Bebediktus »

#### Bebediktus

##### Re: Help With EC SD Calculations
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2019, 09:23:52 PM »
Joe, can you look to your PM box  ?