### Author Topic: Using long shots and stay low in bets.  (Read 4229 times)

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #30 on: July 23, 2019, 05:18:36 PM »
I see near every cycle of 36 one or more numbers coming after each other, but it is normally not that number I play.
I did a test for some years ago using 20000 spins, and the longest gap we get a double hit was so much as 870, and thyen it was not a special number it was any.  So it may be so much as 5000 spins.  We are use to such things and should survive that!

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#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2019, 05:51:28 PM »
I just realized probability is: 0.000729 which is 1:1371 spins.  I am weak at math, but pretty sure this is correct, since it is simply .027*.027 or .027^2

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #32 on: July 23, 2019, 06:08:35 PM »
The pay out is 36 and the odds is 37, so you have got it right.    1369 is the odds.

I will make a trial using BV 1 cent table and see how this best can be handled.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #33 on: July 23, 2019, 06:31:23 PM »

1 1 29 11 17 13 5 22 34 23 20 5 26 2 15 21 24 32 30 5 3 29 13 24 4 10 11 31 36 31 15 1 14 8 5 28 19 15 34 6 24 24 3 17 32 17 33 15 32 21 7 14 25 13 1 18 15 34 1 29 25 9 22 4 36 16 8 4 20 36 21 23 2 28 9 28 17 24 23 22 10 32 17 21 27 29 5 36 27 32 36 30 8 1 2 32 26 2 29 30 0 5 34 29 1 33 20 33

The numbers are in reverse order.

Backing number 1 I got the parlay hit in only   108 spins  pay out 1296 cents, and net is 1194 cents.

I will do some more and see how we can handle losses over 1300 spins.

#### Nisayon

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2019, 08:35:07 PM »
I ran a quick excel test and probability of getting a double hit on DS in 36 spins (aiming only one DS) is about 70%!

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #35 on: July 23, 2019, 09:11:49 PM »
it should be as a single hit in 36 spins, which is just below 70%, or near 2/3.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #36 on: July 24, 2019, 05:03:16 AM »
I think we should only try a single for a few spins, more like a lottery. If we change to a split, we get four times more hitrate, but also four times less payout.  Hit a number two times in a row, has a large variance, so we can hit early, get a good win, but it can take over 5000 spins, which should be very expensive, even a hit at 900th spin, will not pay of very well.  We could handle a session of a hit after 4000 spins. This is not so clever, as we will win very little most of the time the play will be long, and at some point it will like a 20 step Martingale bust.

20 singles and shift to split for 30 spins, corner up to 81 spins, sounds better, or only play DS or streets.

#### MickyP

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #37 on: July 24, 2019, 09:15:33 AM »

1 1 29 11 17 13 5 22 34 23 20 5 26 2 15 21 24 32 30 5 3 29 13 24 4 10 11 31 36 31 15 1 14 8 5 28 19 15 34 6 24 24 3 17 32 17 33 15 32 21 7 14 25 13 1 18 15 34 1 29 25 9 22 4 36 16 8 4 20 36 21 23 2 28 9 28 17 24 23 22 10 32 17 21 27 29 5 36 27 32 36 30 8 1 2 32 26 2 29 30 0 5 34 29 1 33 20 33

The numbers are in reverse order.

Backing number 1 I got the parlay hit in only   108 spins  pay out 1296 cents, and net is 1194 cents.

I will do some more and see how we can handle losses over 1300 spins.

With my hot zone method based on few numbers I would select 8, 11 and 30 as a standard selection but because you selected 11 as your number, I would play 30, 11 and 36. If any of the numbers appears it is counted as a win and you can decide how many hits to go for.

In your example the 30 hit on spin 9 and then again on spin 17 followed directly by the 36 giving you three hits in 18 spins. The 8 hit on spin 16 so if it was used then your two hits would have been achieved in 16 spins.

I know this is a different game to what you are testing but the principal is the same; instead of one number you play three numbers giving you 12 options plus the zero combined making it 13 options to play. The extra chips played will be made up with faster hits. You just have to select neighboring numbers within a hot zone. This is where prediction and money management will come into play.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 09:29:39 AM by MickyP »

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #38 on: July 24, 2019, 09:27:41 AM »
I did test one number!   I use other with 4,6,12 numbers as well.  If using six numbers, I try to win any number twice in a row, and distribute six on each.   Or just back the hitted with 9 units, and a repeate in a few spins is a win.   I use to start with the last fallen.

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#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #39 on: July 24, 2019, 11:48:43 PM »
Backing number 1 I got the parlay hit in only   108 spins  pay out 1296 cents, and net is 1194 cents.

How did you gain so much??  Were you betting .18 at the time and how did you net so much!?

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2019, 03:10:46 AM »
I did not bet more than one at the time  108 spins were 108 units and the payout is  36 x 36.  We lose a chip a spin, actually a bit less as every  attempt to parlay is "free" spin, the winning from the last spin.

The net is (36 x 36) - missing spins which is 108 (or little less, depending on the single hits).

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #41 on: July 25, 2019, 03:45:07 AM »
This time it was a gain of  34 units in 115 spins.  Started with a single for 20 spins, and not a hit at all. Went to split for 20 spins, and no hit at all. Then backing a corner up to 72 spins, two hits but a miss in the parlays. Then I decided to back a street up to 144 spins (72 spins), to save the session, and got my parlay at spin 115.

I think this is a good way, as bet a double single is very hard, but if we try at start for some spins, and when we do not got an early hit, switch to somewhat easier bet, the chance to prevent a loss is very much higher.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #42 on: July 25, 2019, 04:11:00 AM »
Similar as the last one. I got a single hit at the 4th spin (31), but miss the parlay. On the splits I had two missed parlays, and on corner two as well. At spin 72 a street was bet and the third parlay hit at spin 90. The gain is  79 u.

The street could hold up to spin 144 without a loss.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #43 on: July 25, 2019, 05:04:21 AM »
Ended  at  144th spin with no success, the debt is 142 units.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #44 on: July 25, 2019, 05:31:53 AM »
What we can learn here is the game needs some luck. We could bet virtual, until a number comes up, and then put 36 and have a 1/37 to win. That means on a fair wheel, we could as well bet 36 units on a single every spin. We slow down the process.

If we use DS, it will take 6 win in a row to achieve the same as a single, or 12 dozens.

We normally do not want to take this risks, so then we try methods like this.  If we go for splits, we get 1/4 of that a hit on a single pays. Yes hitting two singles in a row, is 4 times more difficult than a split.  A split needs hit on two numbers twice and there are four ways  (i.e.   11,11   11,12, 12,11  12,12).

If we stay on DS we will win easier 1 in 36 times (on NOZ), and get paid 36.  We do not change any odds at all. But it is easier to get a win using DS. That holds however we play, a DS is less difficult hitting than a single.

All bets are the same odds, and IF we want to go for the big, we can play for a single to hit twice in a row. We pay a chip a spin until we win.  If we are very lucky we hit early, if not it may be sound to switch to an other bet, like corner or streets, to save the session, and put a limit how far we want to go.  If we put a limit at 144 spins, no sessions will cost more That's 144 units.  Compare to negative progressions, this is better.