Author Topic: Daily Trades  (Read 242 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Sputnik

Daily Trades
« on: July 09, 2019, 01:35:30 PM »


Daily Trades

I am done with casino games.
Now I day trade with sports as my second part-time job.

Todays Picks with strategy 1

Korean K Leauge 1
Gyeongnam vs. Ulsan
Livebetting Betfair
Time 12:30 Europe

Finland Ladies
JYPK vs. ILVES
Livebetting Betfair
Time 17:30 Europe

Iceland Ladies
Breidablik vs. Fylkir
Livebetting Betfair
Time 21.20 Europe

- - - - - - - - - - - - -

+0............Total Profit
250...........Average Stake
00,00%.....Average Stake Matched
0/0...........Wins / Losses
00.00%.....Strikerate %
00,00%.....ROI %
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 02:38:13 PM »
That's great buddy. How did those matches go by the way?
 

Sputnik

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2019, 04:02:43 PM »


Hello I can show you my speradsheet after 100 placed bets.
Sharing with google docs.

I will be around but not posting so much.

Cheers
 

judge

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 10:54:11 PM »

If you go MLB let us know. BTW, I'm Mark and new to the forum so treat me nice.

 
The following users thanked this post: Jesper

Jesper

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2019, 11:02:19 AM »
I sometimes bet on sports and horses. I have seen people are very supporting the favorits, and the odds are a bit too low.  If place a smaller sum on the underdog, use to work. I win less times, but the profit is somewhat higher.  If for example a team from my country is in the game, much people here use the heart not the sense, and in the other country it is about the same. I have sometimes found bet which is 99% sure (playing in Sweden AND in the other country..  Due to internet it is nowdays a bit harder, and I suspect the rigged things are more common in the lower divisions. 

On  horses, we have a "double" which is bet on two heats, and if we put the second rank alone in the first, and all horses in the second, and wait for the not expected, it works well over time.  I do not play hard just small money.
 
The following users thanked this post: UnlikelySam

UnlikelySam

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #5 on: Yesterday at 05:08:00 AM »
That would be awesome Sputnik thanks. On a side note have you managed to exploit arbitrage betting before to gain some fairly decent profits? There are online odds comparison sites that reflect the various odds being offered by each independent bookie for that purpose... However...
 

Jesper

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #6 on: Yesterday at 05:26:40 AM »
There are sites where you can act as a bookie, you must have some money secured, before, and it is sense to balance the book carefully.
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #7 on: Yesterday at 12:30:16 PM »
Jesper I think you are referring to Betfair Exchange (trading ). If so ; it's quite an innovative way to also delve into sports punting ; basically as you so rightfully said "You are the bookie " and play against other punters - specifically with regards to odds trading high low buy sell etc etc. Here's a link that has more info https://www.beatingbetting.co.uk/sports-trading/betfair-trading/
 

Jesper

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #8 on: Yesterday at 02:28:26 PM »
I have seen the similar at BV.
 
The following users thanked this post: UnlikelySam

Sputnik

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #9 on: Yesterday at 03:48:09 PM »


UnlikelySam I read on sportsforum how players get limited or a ban using Arb, don't want to walk that way.
Skills and the edge trading sports is in the match reading during the live game.

Cheers
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #10 on: Yesterday at 03:53:16 PM »
Sputnik, you cant read the match so, that you will predict what will come. If you bet for goals, in vain there will be be shots on targets, maybe will end 0-0, or under, easily can come from nothing 2 goals. Corners useless s***s, cards are unoredictable too. But of course live bet is more consistently, than prematch betting, because we at least saw how the game performs, but cant predict happens.
 

Sputnik

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #11 on: Yesterday at 04:46:19 PM »


Let me put it like this 79% of games end over 1.5 goals using the correct pre-game analyze with one partiluar league among others.
When you watch a game and there is no attempt to score the game is cold, we can agree on that.
And if there is only socre attempts next to target, is cold.
And if they have the ball less then 40% is cold
And if the attack play is less then 40% is cold.

I would not trade that game if that team was the favorite and the underdog did not show any sign of scorring.

But if make my pre-game research correct and they partly match with the match reading, in-game play.
I would back that team to make at least one goal.

Now if i see that team having 2 to 3 attacks on target and 1 to 2 attacks next to target and they have the ball 50% or more and the attack play is 50% or more and i get a overall good impression of the team wanting to score, i would say the favoirte is hot and i would trade that game.

Match reading is about getting a feel for the game and likelehood of future goals.
I was not saying you predict the future.

I have exit games and exit trades at 64 minuts and 70 minutes because i predict they would end up 0-0 and i have been right both times.
The game start with action and good play but then turn into cold game and nothing happen and there was no reason to continue.

My point is valid, match reading is what creates you long term edge and overall skills to succes.

CHeers
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #12 on: Yesterday at 05:04:15 PM »
Sputnik I read about that as well however as usual they look for every reason to ban a "winner" and welcome " losers "... With the arbitrage you are using multiple bookies not betting on the same match on the WDL market via only one bookie so logically using 3 different bookies ; however yes they may ban you simply for winning  especially if placing large stakes and winning consistently without even offering a reason when you enquire it's all "there" in the small print >:( Perhaps the larger bookies like Betfair and the likes do not practice these :-\ Yes you are right do not mess with a winning formula ;)
 

Sputnik

Re: Daily Trades
« Reply #13 on: Yesterday at 06:36:51 PM »


UnlikelySam

I will tell you something Betfair and Matchbook using Players Price Market and take tax on the odds.
This means that Betfair and Matchbook don't lose money on winning players, because they win all the time taking commision on the price market between players.
That is the reason both Betfair and Matchbook don't care if you winning long term or big amount of money.
They just don't have any reason or winnings on banning or limitade players who use the Price Market between players.

But with Arb you will get limited and ban no matter how many different bookies you use, end of story.
Better option is Match-betting or Bonus trading.

Now i want to make one thing clear with Over 1.5 Market, when Players bet the Over 1.5 market before kickoff they might get a price around 1.22 but i don't enter until i know the game is hot using my match reading skills.
So the starting price might be 1.22 but i enter the game and take action when the price reach 1.44 or 1.50.
That is just the first bet among others using higher odds then starting price from kickoff.
You later in the game the higher and greater odds.

So the combination with the price markets price momvments and match reading skills you can profit long term.
The pre-game stats is only 20/30% and the matchreading is 70% of the edge and skills involved in the game.

Cheers