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Third

Tactical Dispositions
« on: July 07, 2019, 05:33:10 AM »
Quote from: Sun Tzu in the Art of War
1. The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

I spent a great deal of time focusing on bet selection as the key to winning at roulette.  After a period of years, I discovered that bet selection is actually secondary to the winning process.  The primary way we win at roulette is to craft a betting strategy that can handle the worst sequences we can expect to see; i.e. putting ourselves "beyond the possibility of defeat".

Once we have done this, THEN we can work on bet selection to make our gameplay as easy as possible, as often as possible.  Focusing on bet selection primarily is like seeking dessert before the main course.


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2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may KNOW how to conquer without being able to DO it.

5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.

Oftentimes I find myself just waiting to see what the wheel does and what the numbers are doing.  Sometimes the only solution is to keep spinning because there is no obvious opening for attack and this requires patience.  I consistently have no certainty of what roulette is going to do and must wait for the proper opportunity to act decisively.

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6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.

7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete.

Favorable statistics is "a superabundance of strength", otherwise we lack the resources to conquer with confidence.

The worst time to attack is INTO a downswing and the best time to attack is at the beginning of an upswing.  During downswings we need to be "hidden in the recesses of the earth" and during upswings we need to "flash forth from the topmost heights of heaven". 

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8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.

9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!"

10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.

Roulette is infamous for giving us "autumn hairs" and the sun & moon with easy wins.  This lulls us into a false sense of security and vulnerable overconfidence.  Its not easy witholding attacks until the right moment, having to slog through long spin sequences while little gain is made but we always have to keep the worst sequences in mind, planning for advances and setbacks simultaneously; its a cautious balance.

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11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.

12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage.

13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes. Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated.

14. Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.

"Winning with ease" can be easily misunderstood.  Its not easy to win at roulette but when our safety is secure and our attacks are at the greatest advantage, it is THEN that winning is "easy".

In order to set up our wins, we have to patiently hide, delaying our attacks for the right moment; its hard to maintain the proper vigilance and not be overcome by boredom, discouragement and impatience. 

While we are working through sequences, it can be easy to forget that we are actually in a winning position; it kind of like "a winning position in waiting".  Its a properly balanced confidence that is dependent on taking the right actions at the right time, without fail.

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15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

I spent years being overrun by roulette, being shocked and unprepared to deal with the failures of my attacks.  If we play properly and are properly prepared there is nothing roulette is going to do to defeat us, even if it means a temporary tactical retreat.

The Art of War is not a small work, neither in size nor intellectual depth.  Hopefully I can add other passages at some point.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 06:30:09 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2019, 09:58:03 AM »
Great post (thread). You give encouragement to players and I'm sure that many have taken to evaluating their stance.

In some ways this is similar to the security of a single chip that I wrote about. What will be interesting is to analyse a system/method with the pointers you have quoted in your post. The discussion on whether it is defensive or offensive play and maybe an interesting fact will be to put a value to a victory.
There has been talk of one unit gain with an attack using 20 chips. Will this be classified as a good victory? I wonder. Your thoughts?
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2019, 12:39:19 PM »

Yes I have to agree ; brilliant post Third! My all time inspirational subject matter. Don't forget the movie too...  ;) I have read the book too along with The Strategy Collection. Great stuff...

First and foremost we are always at war with our common enemy "The House". The moment we lay that very first chip on the table ; it's "On" ... The chips are our metaphorical bullets which we hope to disintegrate our target within the least amount rounds (Spins). Never letting our guard down. Never!

There are no exceptions to Life either ; we face our daily challenges (battles) and inner Demons along the way hence we always have to be on our toes trying to anticipate our every next move  - planning and strategizing is not optional ; it's Mandatory.

Likewise in business as well , always at "War" with our competitors to ensure we achieve our daily bread...
In the absence of strategic tactical exploits , we are going to war heavily unprepared and ultimately doomed for failure!!! Never take a knife to a Gunfight...



Below are two quotes I tend to draw my inspiration from when I'm facing my daily grind...


“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles."

 
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Jesper

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2019, 01:13:47 PM »


战争的艺术仍然在南京军事学院使用,我在学生时读过它,是的,我学习了中文

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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #4 on: July 07, 2019, 01:22:37 PM »
Wow Jesper awesome stuff :D  I had to rely on Google translate for your post ;D  What got you interested in studying the language? Business or the the lovely ladies :P  or rather both ::)
 

Jesper

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #5 on: July 07, 2019, 02:10:45 PM »
I study the language during Mao, I was more interested in there long civilisation. I study the classical Chinese books. I spent full time 1.5 years at the University, in the beginning of 1970. The Art of War was a must to study in class.
I have forgot a lot, but still I can by using books write and read. The old books has more complicated  tokens, the modern is simpler.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #6 on: July 07, 2019, 03:20:24 PM »
It's great to study a foreign language however not that easy for some to grasp especially Chinese ; much respect to you Jesper. Now that you mention it I did come across a version that had the footnotes in Chinese characters. Yes the modern versions of the book have simplified things quite a bit we have come a long way however I can't help but wonder if some parts were omitted from the very first original version or mistranslated etc etc ???

Let's take the instance of the book by Napoleon Hill - Think and grow rich ; it was first published in 1937. I know MickyP is quite well versed in this book. Some argue that some of the modern versions are flawed in the editing and poor quality of print and even information missing ( omitted). :-\  I personally prefer the original version of an author's best seller as it will always  reflect his initial thought process behind the writing of the book - unedited and originally intact  throughout the many years that stroll by...
 
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Jesper

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #7 on: July 07, 2019, 04:02:55 PM »
Many think it is hard to learn, but it is not. The grammar are simple as English, the writing is something different. If you in English see a word you do not seen before, you can find out how it sounds, but not the meaning. In China you may easy see the meaning and may be harder the sound. The reason they do not use letters, is they from different parts have a spoken language which is not interchangeable, but the tokens are.  Today most of the Chinese speak  p the common language as well.
 
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Third

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #8 on: July 07, 2019, 10:27:15 PM »
There has been talk of one unit gain with an attack using 20 chips. Will this be classified as a good victory? I wonder. Your thoughts?

That one unit has an exponential value that can even be said to represent the value of the entire winning roulette system itself.  There are exceptions to every rule but I hold that concept as the standard.


战争的艺术仍然在南京军事学院使用,我在学生时读过它,是的,我学习了中文

ZMGOSH!  :o

Quote from: UnlikelySam link=topic=2831
planning and strategizing is not optional ; it's Mandatory.

Thank you for this important reminder. :)

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“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”

I seem to recall a warning about this passage, where Suz Tzu says that in order to appear weak we must be very strong indeed because it is likely to incite an attack from our enemy.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 10:31:08 PM by Third »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #9 on: July 08, 2019, 08:43:18 AM »
Yeah Third we must appear absolutely "weak and vulnerable " and open to attack to gain an edge on the enemy forces...



Or perhaps oh so cute and fluffy...



And then go all psycho sheepy mode up in here...



 
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MickyP

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #10 on: July 08, 2019, 01:29:59 PM »
A player never has to present himself as weak and vulnerable; the house sees every player in this light and will win even if it means banning a consistently successful player. The house will always recover any losses from other players. The win % required of a table is always achieved over a period of time. ;D Losers pay the winners and the house (facilitator) takes its cut of the pie.

A player who shows a gain on every session is not a strong player but a wise one. This type of player goes in not to defeat but to disrupt. The house is never defeated; table limits prevent this defeat. The best a player can do is to disrupt in the time he spends at the table. The player must take breaks whereas the house carries on 24/7.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #11 on: July 08, 2019, 01:48:52 PM »
So Micky essentially what you are implying is we should not hide the fact that we are a winner ; no need for incognito or stealth mode :D  The House could care less :'(  Lol most definitely the winners are cashing their winnings from the losers' chips :-\  True the house can not be defeated due to unfair payouts etc etc... Guess I can throw that ninja kit away now ??? ;D
 
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MickyP

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #12 on: July 08, 2019, 03:03:07 PM »
lol, Sam, consistently winning may get you banned but this will depend on how much you win each time. The casinos love winners because they attract other players to the table. If they suspect you are winning through an unfair advantage (luck is not an advantage) like using a roulette computer, they will ban you from table games.

If a player wins small amounts per session using a well grounded method it will not be in the casinos interest to ban the player. Negative publicity is not good for the casino.

Casinos are concerned with the turnover of each operational table. A table with no players is dead space and space pays rent (Merchandising 101). Winners attract funds to the table. Casinos are battling 24/7 to reach their targets while creating winners at the same time. Imagine if winning was impossible, people would rather play slots.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #13 on: July 08, 2019, 03:45:37 PM »
Yep I guess small consistent wins will keep us under the radar and away from raised eyebrows :D ... Winners do attract other players to the table even with other games as well. As long as the others keep losing and placing more chips on the table ; the house couldn't be more happier - Heck that may even be the perfect beautiful distraction one needs ::)

If you wanna be rich in gambling ; own a casino ;D
 

Jesper

Re: Tactical Dispositions
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2019, 05:05:07 PM »
On line or at live casinos they know everthing you do, if you win, they do not mind, but if you win more than they think is "real" they faith you, by banning or other methods.  I have to use several casinos, i like NOZ, but must be careful, as no casino think it is possible to win long, they think you cheat.
 
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