### Author Topic: The dichotomy of losing  (Read 3264 times)

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#### Astutillo

##### The dichotomy of losing
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:17:33 PM »
Suppose you have a good system
Stop win +15
Stop loss -50
Win rate γ88%

The rare times things go south and reach the loss limit I buy in another bank and possibly another one again.
Most of the time I recover, occasionally I wipe out many days of profits.

I can't decide once for all if
- Accept the loss
- Try and recover (with another good system)

This is becoming a philosophical issue to me.
It's very hard to accept a loss, even if I KNOW loss is part of the game (or at least that's what most bettors say).

I wish to know how you solved this dichotomy and why you pick an option or refuse the other.

I wish to understand the parameters involved in choosing one option or another.

I want to solve this riddle once for all and stick to my decision.

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#### ahlidap

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2019, 03:31:58 PM »
Suppose you have a good system
Stop win +15
Stop loss -50
Win rate γ88%

This question means that this isn't a good system.
Well, mathematical it is, but if that was true, having those 12 losing sessions in 100, shouldn't be a problem, as you will be in plus (according to your numbers).

(88*15) - (12*50) = +720

Quote
I can't decide once for all if- Accept the loss
- Try and recover (with another good system)

Number 1, regardless if the main or secondary systems are good or not.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 03:39:24 PM by ahlidap »

#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2019, 03:56:37 PM »
Actually I am in profit.
But not with the amount math allows with these parameters because as I said I occasionally chase my losses wiping out profits.

Even with high win rate systems I am actually scared by back to back losing sessions.
Even if you have a 90% winning systems nothing prevents to lose two in a row or face a very bad run.
That's why psichologically it's hard to me to accept the losing session and avoid recovery attempts.
If I lose a session I'm scared by the possibility to also lose the next.

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2019, 05:19:54 PM »
If you got a good system, you should understand reason why it lost. If it's due to variance alone... then continue play,  if it's due conditions that are non favorable, you should stop for a beer.. hour.. dealer..  till the sun goes up..
If you do not understand why system lost, stop playing all together.

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#### scepticus

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2019, 05:29:55 PM »
I think a maths based  method is  the best approach  but the maths is  a guide -  nothing more.

The variance of the winning numbers  is the real  problem and you simply cannot control it.   You  must accept itβs decision . Using a progression is guesswork . How many trials do you  need ?  How many Progression methods have been proposed  in this forum and  have proved profitable ? Theory is one thing - putting it into practice is another .

I   play Hit and Run over 2 x 2  spins and accept a win or loss after a win or 4 losses .   It has proved profitable .

You guys really  need to ditch the idea of becoming roulette  professionals  - orwinnng a million - until you focus  first on a sensible Bet Selection . That is the key . No progression  can work without a sensible bet Selection.

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#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2019, 05:46:10 PM »
If you got a good system, you should understand reason why it lost. If it's due to variance alone... then continue play,  if it's due conditions that are non favorable, you should stop for a beer.. hour.. dealer..  till the sun goes up..
If you do not understand why system lost, stop playing all together.

This makes complete sense

But how do you understand if the loss is due to variance alone or other accidents?

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#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2019, 05:53:00 PM »
You guys really  need to ditch the idea of becoming roulette  professionals  - orwinnng a million - until you focus  first on a sensible Bet Selection . That is the key . No progression  can work without a sensible bet Selection.
Scep,
I agree with you about the paramount importance of bet selection.

In the past I underrated this feature, but now I think it's crucial.  It is the only element which can provide what Third calls positive variance, where we can profitably go flat betting. I'm still working with (mild) negative progressions but I'm even more closer to flat bet.

So guys, so far all of you seem to avoid recovery and accept loss.

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#### Stratege

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2019, 06:38:08 PM »
Using a progression is guesswork . How many trials do you  need ?  How many Progression methods have been proposed  in this forum and  have proved profitable ? Theory is one thing - putting it into practice is another .

Very nice quote of Scepticus ! Nothing to add !

Astutillo, a profit is always the difference between losses and gains. A very old quote says "we have seen players lose their fortune, wanting to recover a single chip". If you think more about a good selection, I think fiben7 is moving in the right direction !
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 06:48:00 PM by Stratege »

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#### scepticus

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2019, 07:05:48 PM »
So guys, so far all of you seem to avoid recovery and accept loss.
Astutillo
A good Bet Selection will recover with Flat Bets . Yes . Everyone needs to accept a loss when it happens - there is no alternative.  Bettors don't TRY to lose do they ? It happens because we have no control  over variance . We don't know when a loss will occur . All we can do is control our betting . We really need to be aware that we are GAMBLING ! . Despite what  some  think - risking money is a risky business !

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#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2019, 09:07:58 PM »
I am the homework man

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#### Third

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2019, 10:51:14 PM »
This thread is extremely valuable.  I haven't found a way to avoid the upward-downward paradigm.  All I have done is cut losses at a certain point and win it back.  It is because the statistics constantly hunt us.  Its like all the worser sequences that are not usually  seen are all time bombs that are waiting to go off.  Its like a nightmare because there is no way to diffuse the bomb and save the people.  All we can do is to get as many people out of there as possible and the situation will never be predictable, the timing will always be "bad" and we simply have to respond by ultimately saving ourselves at the expense of other lives.

If we cut losses too early, the losses become more common.  If we fight to regain the smaller sized losses, we risk more until the rarer losses hit and the explosion is much bigger.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 11:00:52 PM by Third »

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#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2019, 04:33:39 AM »
The statistics constantly hunt us.  Its like all the worser sequences that are not usually  seen are all time bombs that are waiting to go off.  Its like a nightmare because there is no way to diffuse the bomb and save the people.  All we can do is to get as many people out of there as possible and the situation will never be predictable, the timing will always be "bad" and we simply have to respond by ultimately saving ourselves at the expense of other lives.

This is exactly how I see roulette.
But maybe It's such a psichological fault, a mental error in approaching the game.

Once we have a good system γ85-90% win rate and set up proper win goal/stop loss ratio, we should simply act as an impassive accountant, recording incomes and outflows and drawing up a financial statement.

Roulette still makes me thrill and excite because I love the game and hate losing.
But feelings must be set aside.
In the late months I improved my skills and thus also my profits increased.
But still I FEEL I am a loser because in my head I am a loser the way I approach the game.

To change things you must change yourself.
It's not only what you do but who you have to become in order to reach your ultimate goal.

When I'll be able to think and act like the impassive boring accountant I will know I have accomplished the paramount task.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 04:48:56 AM by Astutillo »

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#### Third

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2019, 04:58:16 AM »
Not all accountants are boring!

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##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2019, 12:31:01 PM »

Astutillo,  your honestly is appreciated and trust me your issue with losses is everyone's problem because we all have them.
the system is not where the problem is and you are right to said it is a "psychological or philosophical one".
how we approche the work is everything.
we change how we look at this game and we will win even with a semi-good system.
the most successfull players I know of are the ones who can "take losses easier then others".
one way to deal with variances is to paid yourself a hourly wage no matter what happens at the table and you will always bring home a sens of "winning" just like if you were going to work.
Cheers,

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#### Astutillo

##### Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2019, 02:19:08 PM »