Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: The dichotomy of losing  (Read 2106 times)

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Greek

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2019, 02:43:00 PM »
Hi Astutillo,
My apologies for going off topic.

I believe each individual deals with a loss based on their financial situation. If the player is playing with money they cannot afford to play, scared money, then the psychological aspect of the game affects the player much more deeply than someone who has money they can afford to lose.

From the stand point of treating roulette as a business, accepting the loss is a part of doing business, unless your business plan also includes try and recover (with another good system). If so, you could incorporate both.

From my perspective, my business plan treats every situation like a impassive boring accountant, detached and unemotional.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2019, 08:32:49 PM by kav »
 
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Mako

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #31 on: June 17, 2019, 08:08:52 PM »
Good thoughts in this thread by Astutillo, Rinaldo, scepticus, Greek, and others, I tend to agree with the consensus that "recovery" isn't something I'm necessarily worried about after a losing session.

I think specticus said it, but my thoughts are that it's just not necessary to have a recovery phase in your repertoire if you're confident on what is most likely to occur when you play your core method.

I know Third and Talos and others have developed extremely comprehensive recovery methods, and it's very cool to read through how they approach it, but for me I'd prefer to just eat the loss and resume play.
 
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Third

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2019, 04:57:32 AM »
The reason I don't eat losses deliberately, is that it opens me up to back to back (before I regain the all time high) losses.  The session where we lose is precious because it contains a high level of negative variance.  I am a firm believer in taking back as much positive variance as possible before calling it quits.
 
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Third

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2019, 08:04:40 AM »
Don't get me wrong, I mean I do abandon sessions once the variance has corrected; in fact, I abandoned one just a minute ago!  :o

EDIT: I recovered 100 units in 3 spins!!!! :D

« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 08:12:49 AM by Third »
 
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Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #34 on: June 18, 2019, 09:14:10 AM »
Yes Third too is right.

Accepting the loss is the wisest option, but one should deeply have tested the recovery possibilities in advance and if they work most of the times take them in consideration.

For example I have two very good systems with win rate „Äč88%
One is focused on hot repeaters.
Other is focused on sleeping finals.

If I lost a session with hot repeaters I accept the loss (at least should). But if i lost a session with the sleeping finals, or reach a low point in my BR with It, I can try and recover with the few hot repeaters, which can provide lower exposure and rapid recovery.
Losing would mean you lost a session with two back to back failures by two high win rate systems. Of course possible, but maybe we can allow ourselves to rely on probability.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 09:16:01 AM by Astutillo »
 
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fiben7

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2019, 11:12:01 AM »
Hi Astutillo,

On your point below, have you worked out more in depth statistics of your systems of >>88% hit ratio? for example, expected units profit per XXX spins played, average bet size, average profit size, maximum consecutive losses, maximum bankroll drawdown, maximum spins needed to recover that maximum bankroll drawdown etc?

This will better help you estimate and decide whether it is worthy to stay and recover or just leave the table at any time.

The hit ratio itself is a poor statistic, it needs to be studied along with its risk/return profile.

To use an example from football, Barcelona may win 88% of times in its Home games in the Primera Division, however if the average betting odd from the betting company for Barcelona to win at its Home game in the Primera Division is 1.02, then betting on Barcelona winning at Home games in the Primera Division is a not a winning strategy itself, when you do the maths!

Hope that helps!

 
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Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #36 on: June 18, 2019, 11:50:49 AM »
Hi Fiben,

I have not worked out the parameters you mention. I probably should.

So far I am more focused on win rate in order to set up a perfect win goal/stop loss ratio.

I play the short session possible, with a prudent win goal. I usually play three sessions per day with It. Never allows any serious drawdown.

So far the system generates consistent profits. These profits would be higher if I'd learn to better manage my rage when things go south. In fact I wiped out many other won sessions due to such a "tilt".

Anyway you're perfectly right and It's my fault not to deep analyze all the variables.
Actually I am not at all the "maths guy" though I'm working to improve this serious weakness.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 11:59:38 AM by Astutillo »
 
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fiben7

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #37 on: June 18, 2019, 12:05:01 PM »
Fair enough Astutillo, understood; agreed though that at some point you should record and calculate the parameters at discussion.

Whatsmore, knowledge of such statistics will greatly improve the psychological side of your play as well; you will not have any "rage" as you put it, once you hit 6 consecutive lossed bets when you have the knowledge that the maximum consecutive lossed bets are 15. You will sit tight and acknowledge the negative variance while having the info that it could go up to 15. Thus, no rage, just realtime analysis and estimation of the ongoing variance, whether negative or positive.

Best of luck across!
 
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Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #38 on: June 18, 2019, 01:40:55 PM »
Knowledge of such statistics will greatly improve the psychological side of your play as well; you will not have any "rage" as you put it, once you hit 6 consecutive lossed bets when you have the knowledge that the maximum consecutive lossed bets are 15. You will sit tight and acknowledge the negative variance while having the info that it could go up to 15. Thus, no rage, just realtime analysis and estimation of the ongoing variance, whether negative or positive.

Perfectly said
 
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Third

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #39 on: June 18, 2019, 05:00:54 PM »
Ya brilliant post from The Fiber!
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #40 on: June 18, 2019, 05:17:36 PM »
Well guys, you can keep patting each other on the back. Speak how well you handle losses. All of you have winning system for sure and l for sure know that it is not the truth. You can blame me, destiny,  god, variance...ets. Till the point when you face the reality and go to gamblinganonimus.com
    My posts get deleted and reducted,  l in fact do not give a f***.  For 2 reasons :
1. I deleted everything what was sensitive from my posts.
2. It's your money and your destiny. 
    But we know the truth at the end of the day, right? I just hope that you do not lie to yourself same way you lie for others that may read your posts. Misleading inocent it's a sure path to the hell.
 

Third

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #41 on: June 18, 2019, 06:45:29 PM »
I blame positive variance :shrug:

 
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fiben7

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #42 on: June 18, 2019, 08:02:25 PM »
Hahahaha what an answer Third!
 
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Third

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #43 on: June 18, 2019, 08:15:46 PM »
I mean, basically, winning at roulette can be summed up in three simple words:

Surviving negative variance.

All of system design and strategic play must be formulated with that as a chief goal; if not, we simply will lose.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: The dichotomy of losing
« Reply #44 on: June 18, 2019, 09:07:24 PM »
No. Winning in roulette sums up by other 3 words combinations.  " Exploring the edge" and " right in  time" .
   If your system is not optimised for positive , you will fight the negative all your life and will see no money.
   Real money come when it's positive and you press hard for it .
 
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