Poll

Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?

Money Management (wagerring plan)
Bet Selection
Either
Both

Author Topic: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?  (Read 590 times)

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MrPerfect.

Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2019, 04:31:57 PM »
If loses do not bother you, then who you are?
 

scepticus

Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2019, 04:44:08 PM »
If loses do not bother you, then who you are?
I am ME  ;D
 

Stratege

Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2019, 10:01:06 AM »

1) In order for a bet selection to offer an advantage, it should be showing more often than it should. You are actually looking/asking to bend probabilities. The point is that in order for your bet selection to offer an advantage it should win more often than expected by probabilities. Futility?.. Fallacy?..

2) Variance can eliminate any advantage. Even worse, it can make your bet lose for extended periods of time, winning much less than it should. What do you do in this case - go bust?

3) But the worst part of their approach is the dismissal of money management. "Flat bet is the way" they preach. "Money management is the way" I reply.

4) Why look to obtain a minuscule and unrealistic advantage in bet selection and ignore the powerful tool of MM?
Bet selection is important. But not because it can offer a win ratio (risk/reward) advantage. It is important because:
  • can create powerful synergies with the wagering plan
  • maybe it could diminish negative variance

1) Yes, that's right, a selection can show more hits statistically, because it's choosing only some spins on a chance, that's another probability in this case (inside the probability of a chance). But you have to know how to choose spins.

2) An advantageous probability has a lower negative variance. The average line rises, so the negative amplitudes are lower. In a winning selection, we never pursue the game for a long time to finish winning. We abandon the share on a profit or on a loss. Because continuing, it would go back into a completely random game, where it is always the negative variance (+ zero) that will triumph over any bankroll.

3) I assume you're talking about the flat bet that would reject the MM? In fact, those who have found a winning selection in flat bet, will not be able to find a better advantage in progression negative. The only solution is  progression positive. A "MM" with the flat bet will consist of reinvesting its profits to play the chip at 100 then 110 then 120... This is like any speculator on the stock markets.

4) In fact, a tiny advantage must be relatigrable with the height of the bankroll. In flat bet, we don't have thousands of chips. The MM is not ignored, it is rather secondary. Talking about flat bet does not reflect reality, because there is a reinvestment on the one hand of profits, to increase its profits. Two very different paradigms. In flat bet, the priority is on the statistics and the extraction of the spins, the probability of winning is sought over a very short period. With a negative progression, the priority is financial mechanics (changing bets) and the probability of winning is calculated over a long period of time.

PS: we choose a paradigm according to our beliefs (founded or unfounded), our psychology and our skills, to act effectively.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 10:33:19 AM by Stratege »
 
The following users thanked this post: scepticus, fiben7

MrPerfect.

Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2019, 05:30:38 PM »
How in this world positive bet selection with negative variance can wipe out a bank? Or someone do not understand concept of the bankroll, or doesn't know how to choose positive bet selection. 
   There are math limits ... probability theory takes care of these. If someone ( like me) can not be bothered to apply these formulas,  they can be seen on graph empirically. 
     Bankroll is to survive 80% of longest negative variance possible.  There gonna be 3 cases... you win first, you lose first , you catch the wave in the middle. 80% protects you from 2 of these and third one is rare event to be really considered about it. There are more things to wipe out bank ( not positive bet selection for example or conditions change).