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Jamndy

Question.
« on: May 27, 2019, 11:22:01 AM »
if a system requires a bank of 3,200 units - has made 620 units - after 448 spins to date —— is it a viable system to continue to test or is the bank roll of 3,200 units out of proportion [i.e. too high] and further testing should be abandoned.
Yours thoughts are welcome.
 

MickyP

Re: Question.
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2019, 01:15:16 PM »
The bankroll is a bit high but that's not a problem. Out of 448 spins you made 620 units. That's about 1.4 units gain for every spin. To me that is just fine. I try and gain at least one unit per spin with any method I play.
What draw-downs do you experience with your method? If you have an erratic graph then you may need to look a your method again.
 
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Jamndy

Re: Question.
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2019, 01:24:48 PM »
Hi Micky - I’ve now done 537 spins with 673 units gained now. I thought the bankroll required was a bit high too. This is why I asked for others opinions. That high bankroll was only required once but of course once means that bank roll IS required.
Sorry but draw-downs and erratic graph is double Dutch to me. I don’t know about these things -I just try and think of something that might work and then test it at the lowest units possible.
 
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Joe

Re: Question.
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2019, 03:20:02 PM »
Sorry but draw-downs and erratic graph is double Dutch to me.
Drawdowns are the state or value of your bank when in losing runs. The maximum drawdown is the lowest point your bank reaches in the course of a session. So for instance if your bank is 3,200 units but at some point it goes down to 2,200 units (and no lower) then the maximum drawdown is 1000 units (3,200u - 2,200u).

Severe drawdowns are usually an indicator that your system needs attention.  ;D
 
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Jamndy

Re: Question.
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2019, 03:34:07 PM »
Joe thank you for your explanation. A very clear explanation too.
When I said in my opening post that 3200 units were required, I meant so far that on the longest losing run 3200 units were required to see through this losing run.
For fear of an even longer losing run occurring as I test this system I am now waiting for 5 virtual losses before beginning to bet rather than previously I was waiting for 4 virtual losses. If I had waited for 5 virtual losses from the start the longest losing run would have required 2200 units, not 3200 units. Of course playing now that little bit safer means l am missing out on some potential wins but as I say my bank is a little safer now and profit is still continuing to climb albeit a little more slowly.
 

Godfrey

Re: Question.
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2019, 09:38:04 PM »
3200 units is way to high if your aim is to win 1 unit per spin or per session closed.

A stable system requires no more than the 500-600 units range.

An ideal system requires around 35 units to win 1 unit. But it all comes down to the unit value. For example if you have a bet selection which requires you to bet 5 units per spin instead of 1 unit it would equal 5 x 35.

If you are a beginner I would advise you to steer away from any progressions. Focus more on flatbetting, parlaying and divisors.
 
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Third

Re: Question.
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2019, 12:46:08 AM »
If your bank is 3200 units, until I would reach 3200 units of profit, I wouldn't even begin to consider the system as viable.  While you are testing, you should identify the sequences that will defeat your system and think about what would have happened if that sequence came out instead of the win you just received.  Its good to know the statistics associated with the worst sequences, for your system.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 12:48:18 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: Question.
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2019, 03:08:12 PM »
An average return of at least one unit per spin is a realistic expectation if you are playing on a B/M table. I use a 200 unit bankroll and achieve this on a very regular basis.

Change your playing platform and test your methods/systems virtually on a B/M table with a drastically reduced bankroll (in units) and see how you perform.
 
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kav

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Re: Question.
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2019, 04:47:43 PM »
It is extremely hard to be a consistent winner in roulette. If you manage that, everything else is much easier to finetune. The hard part is to consistently win 1 chip. No matter how many spins or how much bankroll it may need. If you find a way to win more than you lose in all possible outcome sequences, you have done the hard part.

Great advice -->>
While you are testing, you should identify the sequences that will defeat your system and think about what would have happened if that sequence came out instead of the win you just received. 
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 05:29:13 PM by kav »
 
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Jamndy

Re: Question.
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2019, 05:16:51 PM »
Thank you everyone for your posts.  I’m listening, I’m attentive and I’m trying to learn.
P.S. I cannot play at a B/M casino. There are none anywhere close to me, so with regard to B/M casinos I’m geographically challenged. 😠
 
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Godfrey

Re: Question.
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2019, 05:34:20 PM »


Then your best option is to play online through live streams connected to b&m casinos ie. Hippodrome, St
Vincent, Dragon Ara etc.

It's better than nothing. But just be very careful as streams can be manipulated or connection can be cut off due to "technical reasons".

Always check and test enough results before playing to see those wheels correspond to the spielbank permanences. Not some auto live cammegh wheel with sudden rotor speed changes, airball or RNG. Those will f*** you up.

 
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MickyP

Re: Question.
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2019, 08:05:56 PM »
"It is extremely hard to be a consistent winner in roulette. If you manage that, everything else is much easier to finetune. The hard part is to consistently win 1 chip. No matter how many spins or how much bankroll it may need. If you find a way to win more than you lose in all possible outcome sequences, you have done the hard part." Quote from Kav.

Kav, I thanked your post because it has value and not because I'm sucking up to you as one of the stooges suggests.

I agree, it is difficult to win constantly with roulette. I discovered this many years ago and every so often I get reminded about the fact. I would sit for hours scrutinizing my day's play trying to work out where I went wrong. At a time during the day I was up by a good margin but when I walked out I was in the minus. This would happen enough times for me to study my play pattern. I had methods that all started off very well but at times would leave me chasing losses.

I changed my whole approach to my day play (casino visit) while continuing to research and test new methods. Eventually I formulated a playing structure that works on small gains over short sessions. This self study also confirmed that playing one method, although not wrong was limiting my options at the tables. I qualify a table for a method and very seldom do I exceed 20 spins on a session. Some call it "hit and run" but I prefer seeing it as strategic play.

I pre-select about four different methods that I will utilize on that day and I make sure that the methods are able to be used in different sequence strings. As soon as I reach my session goal I close the session.

By restyling my play pattern I have greatly reduced the number of lost sessions. It is a big adjustment and requires discipline but it worth it. I evaluate my play on sessions won and lost as opposed to individual bets.
 
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Stratege

Re: Question.
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2019, 07:37:12 AM »
Jamndy, to evaluate the value of a balance sheet, your information is insufficient. Bet on EC or straight up? Flat bet or progression? Average bet and bet higher? With 448 spins you cannot predict anything. There are several essential criteria for measuring the reliability of a method. And there are several statistical methods, depending on what we want to measure. But there is another much simpler model, by the "empirical evaluation" to determine an excellent level of confidence that you can give to your tests. This calculation uses the value of 5 STD, because the deviance limit would be close to 6 STD (this calculation was presented by a very old roulette players magazine (using Marigny's research)). But this calculation is done in flat bet (or possibly with an average bet really very low). According to this evaluation, we can estimate that in flat bet (or with the use of a progression with very low bets), it will be necessary to gain between 5 and 10 bankrolls to be certain that the gains are not abnormal, and we are not going to give everything to the casino! This estimate is not excessive, but with some progressions with huge bets, evaluation isn’t useful, it will lose sooner or later!
« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 07:46:16 AM by Stratege »
 
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Joe

Re: Question.
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2019, 08:27:05 AM »
Hi Jamndy, you can evaluate your system using my "Significance" software. But it doesn't take into account any progression you use, the results from the software apply to flat bets only. This is better really because if you don't have an edge then no progression will work in the long run.
You can download it from here- http://www.roulettecoder.com/utilities.html [nofollow] (scroll down to the 2nd program on the page). I hope the instructions are clear but if not ask questions.  :D
 

kav

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Re: Question.
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2019, 09:55:29 AM »
Joe,I totally disagree about flat betting. Here are my thoughts:
Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
 
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