Author Topic: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.  (Read 490 times)

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MickyP

System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« on: May 25, 2019, 11:15:50 AM »
System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
This thread may be viewed by some as a do-over of already discussed topics on the forum and they may be right, however; the aim of this thread is to not only gather information from previously discussed topics and set out to establish criteria for a winning system/strategy, but to also bring new ideas to the table. What will make this discussion a thorny one is the conflict of opinions where opinions presented may all be feasible but subject to strict play parameters. The understanding that there is more than one way to profit from roulette is best assumed.
It has been stated that some players will take many years or even a lifetime trying to develop a single system. I’d like to know why? What are they doing wrong? I can only presume that it is not so much developing a profitable approach as it is a search for a HG.
There has been much controversy over progressions vs flat betting. When is a progression feasible as opposed to flat betting? What prediction methods are best? Is probability factored into play? Will variance really destroy a healthy bankroll and why? When to start looking at Money Management as part of a system/strategy in development. What points should be considered when developing a system/strategy? Is a strategy created from a mechanical system? There are many more considerations before a possible system/strategy can be pieced together before the initial test phase. Once the testing starts what should players look out for that calls for amendments to be made? When any change is made, is the test started from the beginning using the same sequence of numbers that can be used as a comparison to evaluate changes made?
What may appear insignificant in development and testing may just turn out to be the Achilles heel of the system. A system/strategy may be designed as a “hit and run” approach and players would try and play it on a continuous basis and lose. They will not understand the losses that keep digging away at their profits/bankroll.
Is the practicality of a system/strategy considered in the development phase? What parameters are laid down at the starting block of the development stage? How is bankroll determined for a system?
Anyway, from the above you will be able to get an idea on possible talking points. Feel free to add anything that may add value to the discussion. Thanks.
 
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Third

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2019, 11:17:17 AM »
It has been stated that some players will take many years or even a lifetime trying to develop a single system. I’d like to know why? What are they doing wrong? I can only presume that it is not so much developing a profitable approach as it is a search for a HG.

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Will variance really destroy a healthy bankroll and why?
What are we doing wrong, is correct.  For me it took years because I kept fighting roulette, thinking I could out muscle it with the right system and progression.  It took years of getting pounded by the game before I realized that we cannot avoid the pounding, instead we must flow with what roulette brings to us and eventually, that will be a win.  To sum it up, I learned that I must be as conservative as possible and aggressive as possible, all at the same time; sometimes conservatively waiting aggressively is the best move.

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There has been much controversy over progressions vs flat betting. When is a progression feasible as opposed to flat betting?
A progression is feasible when we either don't care if it loses (strike me if you dare), we have a bet that is more probable than usual or we have sufficient earned profit to afford it.  In all other cases, flat betting is best. 

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What prediction methods are best?
Its quite possible that none are best but if there are such methods, I am betting that they revolve around the Law of the Third and hot numbers.

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Is probability factored into play?
Yes and it is a measurement of how often we are expected to lose.

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When to start looking at Money Management as part of a system/strategy in development.
I have found a positive progression money management approach to be the most powerful but also, because debt recovery will always be required at some point, a tactical retreat strategy where debt is simply written off in favor of returning to a more favorable/aggressive mode of play.

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What points should be considered when developing a system/strategy? Is a strategy created from a mechanical system?
In the end, whatever initial approach we create, it will lose; knowing how often is nice. So, really its 1% importance on the initial approach and 99% importance on the recovery method.  No initial approach will save us.

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A system/strategy may be designed as a “hit and run” approach and players would try and play it on a continuous basis and lose. They will not understand the losses that keep digging away at their profits/bankroll.
Variance swings both ways.  It makes sense to cut a session off at an all time profit or debt recovery high (i.e. most recovery made).  It is possible and highly recommended to measure which direction variance is going and where we are statistically; e.g. it makes no sense to cut a session if there is still a large amount of negative variance present.

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How is bankroll determined for a system?
The larger the better with no limit on how large is too large.  I personally hold a 3x lifetime bankroll above the worst losing sequence that I have ever experienced; this losing sequence spanned across many sessions and days.

Learning how to lose is the key to winning at roulette.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 11:45:06 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2019, 11:42:39 AM »
Third, thanks for answering some of the questions. I actually just jotted down a few questions to stimulate thought on how a player sets up to develop a system/strategy. Your answers however, will open the gates of hell...lol

Did you answer as a RNG player? Do your answers apply to B/M table play? You say that probability is a measurement of how often we can expect to lose. Should it not be the opposite?
 

Third

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2019, 11:50:50 AM »
I have never played in a B & M casino/Live wheel. It does scare me how slowly they spin.  I respect B & M players because they must craft their system with the limitations of B & M play in mind; i.e. if you rack up too much debt, good luck getting it back in the same day.

You say that probability is a measurement of how often we can expect to lose. Should it not be the opposite?
Most definitely not.  Sure, we should focus on getting the highest probability of a win that we can but we are fooling ourselves if we don't focus all of our attention on the other half of that statistic; there is no 100% in roulette except that our initial approach WILL lose.

True system design is crafting a successful recovery method.  Everything else is practially just toying around.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 11:57:03 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2019, 12:30:49 PM »
Third, Just in this exchange we have had, I see very clearly that player mindset differs depending on the play platform. This further exacerbates the conflict of opinions on any and all aspects of the game.

You literally go into the game expecting to lose. Wow, even with a well tested system you still expect to lose? Why then does your system lose but recovery not? If you depend so earnestly on recovery, do you make provision to build up recovery so that you can deal with the inevitable loss as soon as it happens?

I don't know about other B/M players but if I lose in a day I don't try and chase the loss. I have losses in every game but I play in sessions and win most. I do make provision for a lost session in my MM so chasing lost sessions is not on the cards. If I can not dissolve a lost session completely then I spread the outstanding amount over several sessions by either increasing my goal by a few units or using surplus wins of each session to balance the books.
I use probability as a betting guideline (number of spins to bet on) based on the method I'm using and confirmed by test results. Other aspects play an important roll in the bet selection and so on.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2019, 12:52:02 PM »
Third is correct ; we have to look at the probability of an event not occurring however sometimes we need to read both sides of the paper as well... We have to take into consideration of the probability of the event also occurring to strategize our gameplay... Most may not agree and that's perfectly acceptable as we are in a forum afterall. Yes Micky agreeable to not to chase the losses with a hatchet - best bury it. I think the way forward with that is that you are implementing a number of sessions to  play so that is paramount..

As stated your losses can b split or carried over to your next sessions call it a recovery process if you may... One has to factor probability into the equation especially when betting more straight up numbers at a time... A little goes a long way cannot be over emphasized in terms of MM...
 
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Third

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2019, 02:28:48 PM »
You literally go into the game expecting to lose. Wow, even with a well tested system you still expect to lose?
I've played plenty going in excpecting to win and I've made good amounts of money doing it but I was fooling myself because probability and statistics always include the time when we will lose; it is inevitable, unavoidable, and destined to happen.  It might take months, like it did in my case.  Many players get completely blown out by this, which is why I stress the largest bankroll possible.

Going in expecting to win?  Been there, done that.  I prefer going in knowing that I am going to lose.  That way, I am prepared for it.

Just today I went 0 hits for 180 numbers bet.  The impact was only minimal.  Yesterday I went 1:120 followed immediately by 0:120 (1:240) and I survived without risking huge amounts of money in the process.  I am PREPARED to lose.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 02:37:30 PM by Third »
 
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Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2019, 04:12:34 PM »
Interesting topic.
Thanks guys.

It's nice to see two seasoned players like MickyP and Third differ about how to manage loss.

Accept lost session vs recovery.

I talked to MickyP and I know he agrees that recovery is such a form of chasing losses.

But actually I still have trouble in accepting a small loss and always try and recover.

This is because even with a high win rate system you can meet two or more back to back losses because... its roulette!

And two or more consecutive losses scare me very much.

The point is... when recovery fails and you lose more than twice your "accept loss amount" you start wondering again what of the two options is really the best.
Still I cant go through this.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 04:14:19 PM by Astutillo »
 
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scepticus

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2019, 04:29:17 PM »
THANK you Astutillo
Reality dawns !  ;D
 
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Third

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2019, 05:59:56 PM »
Exactly so!  One method that I use which helps, is to keep the debt but restart the session and continue recovery in a new session.  Even though its true that personal permanence will catch up to me at some point in the future, the session permanence has definitely changed in the present!  :D
 

MickyP

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2019, 06:20:11 PM »
Two people look at the same glass of water; one says it is half full and the other says it is half empty. Both people are thirsty; one sees water and the other see the lack of water. Two people make provision for a sustainable supply of water; one digs a well and the other puts a container out to catch the rainwater....The well could dry up and the rains could stop due to drought (variance in roulette).
I do agree that a player must learn to manage loss. Loss has to be controlled and contained. Loss will happen so  prepare a management plan from spin one. I agree that consecutive losses are possible. I have experienced this in real play on a few occasions.

When you are testing a system and you encounter a loss do you dump the system or do you push on with testing to see how frequently losses occur?
What does the statement "It will eventually lose" mean?

 
« Last Edit: May 25, 2019, 06:22:41 PM by MickyP »
 

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2019, 06:32:14 PM »
When you are testing a system and you encounter a loss do you dump the system or do you push on with testing to see how frequently losses occur?

I would like to say that I remain still and strong and go on my way, but I dont.

Today I lost a session after more than 20 consecutive sessions won. And the result is that my mind is starting to think about tweaks and revolutions. While instead it should remain still and strong and keep on.
 
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MickyP

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2019, 06:42:46 PM »
This is where testing data reveals its value. To me, one lost session in twenty one sessions played is manageable and should not disqualify the system but this depends on the cash flow of the exercise.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2019, 09:43:16 AM »
You literally go into the game expecting to lose. Wow, even with a well tested system you still expect to lose?
I've played plenty going in excpecting to win and I've made good amounts of money doing it but I was fooling myself because probability and statistics always include the time when we will lose; it is inevitable, unavoidable, and destined to happen.  It might take months, like it did in my case.  Many players get completely blown out by this, which is why I stress the largest bankroll possible.

Going in expecting to win?  Been there, done that.  I prefer going in knowing that I am going to lose.  That way, I am prepared for it.

Just today I went 0 hits for 180 numbers bet.  The impact was only minimal.  Yesterday I went 1:120 followed immediately by 0:120 (1:240) and I survived without risking huge amounts of money in the process.  I am PREPARED to lose.
That hearts! !! I'm already terrified just reading that. Maybe you should do right the opposite of what you are doing? This ratios of misses just indicate that what you do is wrong.
 
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Third

Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2019, 08:27:39 AM »
What can I say?  Those sequences have occurred all throughout my play; they are expected to occur.  What I have changed recently however, is when I cut sessions off.  I am watching the short-term statistics and cut sessions on wins, when indicated.  I have noticed my sessions do seem to be shorter because of this.
 
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