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Author Topic: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy  (Read 5781 times)

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dobbelsteen

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #150 on: June 01, 2019, 01:22:58 PM »

My research is based only on one of your systems.You write about real data of thousands of spins and 50 different systems.

A million sequence of real data is not necessary for a trustworthy research of a random sequence. A fair random number generator is enough. Long run sessions have no secrets. Every particular event can be computed.

My table is the result of 5000 spins of short run sessions. Players play only short run sessions. You must focused your research on short run sessions.

You must ask yourself , what you are looking for or what do you think to discover.
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #151 on: June 01, 2019, 01:53:01 PM »
Dobbelsteen,

I am not saying anything different regarding the short sessions, I myself stay at the casino for around 150 spins (90-200 the min-max) and apply risk management rules within that short sessions as well. And my top systems based on my research exhibit above 70% winning ratios for these short sessions.

So I am focusing on short sessions due to practicality and executability, however longer term data and analysis depict the bigger continuous picture of the system/strategy. A significant performance timeseries to study.

You take care and continue your excellent work dobbelsteen!

 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #152 on: June 01, 2019, 03:10:39 PM »

A million sequence of real data is not necessary for a trustworthy research of a random sequence. A fair random number generator is enough. Long run sessions have no secrets. Every particular event can be computed.
   It's easy to say " random sequence "... "real data is not nessesary...  fair rng..."...
    When l read something like that, l can not make sense.  On one hand we got reality... and it sucks to be a roulette player. On other hand folks post that life is simple .
   What you gonna do when you find a way to beat rng ( excel) , or what you got there? Will you go to casino or just make a post about it?
  In casino there is rng, but fair is that? Or you will play roulette wheel with is not random with your systems designed to beat rng...  what you gonna do?
 

fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #153 on: June 03, 2019, 06:59:27 PM »
A short note to thank you all members here for the interest, feedback and discussion on my thread; it has been a real pleasure.

I learned a lot from so many interesting threads in this priceless roulette forum.

I wish I made even the smallest contribution myself, it would be an honour.

Keep the research alive, share as much as you wish and please be open to other views and approaches.

This forum should not be a competitive ground to measure whose system/strategy is better, more effective, more profitable, more intelligent, more mathematical, more more more.

Ego destroys it all.

Share and discuss in a civilized way, our ancestors have worked very hard for us to communicate here.

And when mistaken, it is nice to admit it. When insulting, it is nice to apologize.

Numbers on the roulette dictate our profit and loss whereas written words here dictate our essence as human beings.

Best of luck to all!
Fiben7
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 07:36:50 PM by fiben7 »
 
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Stratege

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #154 on: June 12, 2019, 02:22:13 PM »
By fiben7
"Given that the system's rules on the bet selection are static and no parameterization occurs on the system based on any new data (algorithm's logic free of data overfitting), I find it surprisingly "stable" and recurring as a pattern. There are clear floor levels (at 5/36 hits or 13.89%) and clear cap levels (at 16/36 hits or 44.44%) and most importantly when these levels are hit either way, the reversion to their mean - the expanding hit ratio level - is very sudden and succinct (well in the vast majority of occasions).
For example, one could stop playing for a number of spins once the upper band is reached (or deleverage). One could double up the bet once the lower band is reached. One could not bet at all until the lower band is breached and then continue playing till the rolling hit ratio meets its expanding mean (and not the upper band say) and then stop again and wait for the next step-in opportunity. And so one and so forth.
I would appreciate yours and the other interested members' view on this, how you would handle such dynamics!"


                                                                       ********************

fiben7, this is absolutely what to do! We have to delimit. productive areas. Personally, I have in my game 3 types of attacks (long, short and mixed). My "long" attacks may occupy. a space too long if I do not touch very quickly. So, on this type of attacks my floor isn't a maximum number of spins, or chips, played but, a value of 2, 5 STD. on this type of attacks, I stop computer playing, little sweater loss, if I go down to this value. This avoids me playing with a probability that is no longer very favorable.

Setting limits is a work of precision, seeking these limits is understanding things and having a real experience to make decisions. Your "tool" could give you a "floor" and a "ceiling". It's important, you have limits to work.

What I would do (or what I have already done) in the face of such a dynamic ?  It must be thought that on a very unbalanced cycle, the return to the equilibrium must verb bring. some series or a few repetitions (or a few winning cycles to be done). It’s best, on the next 36 spins of your example, to wait for the start of a series (2 spins on EC) to play the tendency towards balance and give up verb. Every attack from the break. The statistic indicates that on 36 spins / 2, you achieve 18/4 = 4.5 series on a color. Computer 5 to 7 chips must suffice, to hope. Meet a series that brings an advantage over one cycle. Why not play as soon as the late color comes back? In a cycle of 36, there are 9 singles. If you had a strong imbalance on a color, there were few singles red and black. By playing on the next cycle, you might have the return of the singles that would lose a unit at every time. It must be said, on a discrepancy, it is the series that is dominant, then hope. winning on a reverse series must be investigated.

You could bidder to play the 36 spins ? This is how the Casino WINS, because a "probability" advantageous to us, nevertheless remains less than 2, 7% profit. There is computer for you, cycles that should be played according to 5 to 7 attacks and other cycles that should be played only partially, or not at all (depending on what will happen in your game space of 36 spins.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 02:31:34 PM by Stratege »
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #155 on: June 13, 2019, 10:20:09 AM »
Dear Stratege,

Excellent feedback, thank you very much for this and your general contribution across threads, deeply appreciated.

Such tools can only enhance the performance of a winning bet selection process. It is the second stage of the very very difficult first stage (the bet selection rules themselves).

Working on the risk management side though allows for a better understanding of your bet selection dynamics and sometimes even provides ideas for a better bet selection in the first place!

It is an exciting journey, lets keep our eyes open for any kind of usefull metrics so that we we sit (or stand) in front of the roulette we enjoy the game at its best being confident of our system/strategy and its limitations and not experience the psychological turmoil of a pure gambler!

Best regards
 
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Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #156 on: June 13, 2019, 12:57:21 PM »
Keep up the good work guys. I really enjoy this topic!
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #157 on: June 13, 2019, 01:18:49 PM »
I am a dynamic player. I use the VL strategy in all kind of wagers. On the Multi Roulette terminals I jump from table to table and change from chance after every hit At this moment I am very lucky with the black hotspot
 
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Stratege

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #158 on: June 14, 2019, 06:43:14 PM »

fiben7, this is absolutely what to do! We have to delimit. productive areas. Personally, I have in my game 3 types of attacks (long, short and mixed). My "long" attacks may occupy. a space too long if I do not touch very quickly. So, on this type of attacks my floor isn't a maximum number of spins, or chips, played but, a value of 2, 5 STD. on this type of attacks, I stop (accounting) computer playing, little sweater loss, if I go down to this value. This avoids me playing with a probability that is no longer very favorable.

What I would do (or what I have already done) in the face of such a dynamic ?  It must be thought that on a very unbalanced cycle, the return to the equilibrium must verb bring. some series or a few repetitions (or a few winning cycles to be done). It’s best, on the next 36 spins of your example, to wait for the start of a series (2 spins on EC) to play the tendency towards balance and give up after every verb. Every attack from the break. The statistic indicates that on 36 spins / 2, you achieve 18/4 = 4.5 series on a color. (Accounting) Computer 5 to 7 chips must suffice, to hope. Meet a series that brings an advantage over one cycle.

You could bidder to play the 36 spins ? This is how the Casino WINS, because a "probability" advantageous to us, nevertheless remains less than 2, 7% profit. There is computer for you, cycles that should be played according to 5 to 7 attacks and other cycles that should be played only partially, or not at all (depending on what will happen in your game space of 36 spins.


Maybe fiben7 will explain the rest of his game? We know that there is a floor and a ceiling, the limits for short sessions. What are the first elements of your fiben7 strategy ?

Best regards.  ;)
« Last Edit: June 14, 2019, 06:49:23 PM by Stratege »
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #159 on: June 15, 2019, 12:08:23 PM »
Hi Stratege and fellow members!

Well on this rolling hit ratio dynamics concept as a risk management tool, we need (i) a robust expanding hit ratio of the system and (ii) a mean reverting rolling hit ratio process with clear floors and ceilings; just like the graph I shared before.

In my specific example, after doing various tests and sensitivity analysis in backtesting mode, I found that the optimal way to exploit this tool is:

Continue playing each and every spin  - as this is a winning system in any case - and (i) with an average of 10/36 winning bets, then double up the bet once the rolling hit ratio is equal to or lower than 7/36 (the low floor) and (ii) bet as usual even for rolling hit ratio is higher than the average of 10/36, i.e. do not stop at ceilings because even if the win ratio drops, you are still in winning territory so do not stop.

This results in a 50% increase in profits along with a 20% increase in maximum drawdown (nothing comes for free hehehe but as long as the risk/return ratio is favorable for the performance, we go for it). The general sharpe ratio so the system/strategy is higher so great stuff!

The strategy to only bet once rolling hit ratio hits the lower floor is not a bad one though you miss a lot of winning opportunities and on top it is psychologically tiring to await for so many spins without betting in exchange of a performance that may be a bit more stable but is not significantly better than the "bet on each spin" strategy.

Best regards
Fiben7
« Last Edit: June 15, 2019, 12:32:10 PM by fiben7 »
 
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Stratege

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #160 on: June 16, 2019, 10:20:58 AM »
Hi Stratege and fellow members!

The strategy to only bet once rolling hit ratio hits the lower floor is not a bad one though you miss a lot of winning opportunities and on top it is psychologically tiring to await for so many spins without betting in exchange of a performance that may be a bit more stable but is not significantly better than the "bet on each spin" strategy.

Best regards
Fiben7


Really, you worked your subject ! For your value less than 7/36, you have 2 Λ 36 = 68 719 476 736 possibilities. The possibilities 0/36 + 1/36 + 2/36 + 3/36 + 4/36 + 5/36 + 6/36 = 4 782 790. And 2 Λ 36 / 4 782 790 = 14 368.

So, you have a situation less than 7/36 every 14,368 spins. Indeed, a player who expects this value less than 7/36, must follow 144 spins per day for 100 days, to find 1 situation. Or on 3 EC, 33 days. Or on 100 EC, once a day! Here it is very interesting! Doubling the unity on these situations is absolutely realistic. Congratulations !
« Last Edit: June 16, 2019, 10:25:56 AM by Stratege »
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #161 on: June 16, 2019, 12:37:34 PM »
Much appreciate your double-checking and verifying my risk management concept Stratege! Thank you for your kind help!
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #162 on: September 15, 2019, 08:46:47 PM »
Following more than a 100 sessions in real B/M casinos in Athens and Wien across airball machines and real croupiers tables with a 95% hit ratio on visits and an average of +25% return on bankroll per visit:

(i) find a System with a CONSISTENT hit ratio that even by little surpasses the expected probability hit ratio and is a winning profit-and loss-strategy in your sample data

(ii) trade NOT the System itself but the HIT RATIO dynamics. This is the Strategy; Dobbelsteen is right on this.

(iii) trading the Strategy involves waiting for virtual losses; Palestis is right on this.

(iv) Hit and Run. Reality (Life) is right on this.

(v) welcome to professional roulette investment asset class

Micky P. you 've summarised all the above in many of your posts, so well done mate.

Take care and Roulette is surely beatable.

Best
Fiben7

 
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MickyP

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #163 on: September 17, 2019, 04:47:46 AM »
Fiben7. well done on your achievement. The rewards of hard work are so sweet.

You give me too much credit but thank you for the recognition. What you stated in your post fits into the current discussion being torn apart (ROFL) in the thread "Roulette Why?". You come across as being very business minded because you are so calculating and analytical in your approach. Maybe you should join the discussion, your thoughts and ideas may provide some direction for like minded players.

Thanks again buddy.
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #164 on: September 17, 2019, 05:54:11 AM »
My pleasure MickyP, you 've contributed and explained really important concepts here so praise well deserved!

I just wanted to summarise the basic points of my approach after extensive testing in case there is any interest from like minded roulette players.

Thanks again to you and other active members here for some invaluable threads!

Best
Fiben7

 
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