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Author Topic: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy  (Read 4743 times)

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MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2019, 10:13:16 PM »
Amount of the money is not a primary. ...you lost me there...
   It should be some other kind of quants then.
 

fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2019, 07:20:59 AM »
Thank you very much for your kind words Third! I was just sharing a few points to discuss, I know you guys here have extensively researched the topic!

Mr.Perfect, I understand your point; my note here is not that flat betting is the best and only way for a winning system. I am just sharing my view, from a system research process view, that once a system is good enough to be a winner with flat betting, then in my humble opinion, it would most probably be more robust and well controlled as a model than another winning system using progression betting amounts etc.

I could be wrong, I am just discussing about it.

As kav and UnlikelySam said, such a predictive model is very very hard to find. So I am trying my best  :)
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2019, 07:33:19 AM »
Fiben7,  don't get me wrong. .. and welcome to the forum.
   Btw,  there was a paper made by quant about one specific roulette device 
      https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,1707.0.html
Could you please give your opinion on it?

« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 07:38:48 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2019, 07:40:12 AM »
Thank you Mr.Perfect for the welcoming.

Sure, I will have a look on the paper and let you know of my thoughts in due time.

Best of luck across!
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2019, 09:19:11 AM »
Fiben 7 : on this forum there are two different kind of players with  different approaches. The AP players are focused on the wheel. The system players use the statistic history. The history and the knowledge of the statistic features gives the information for their approach. I am a follower of the statistic manner.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2019, 09:43:23 AM »
And AP ignore stats or what?
 

fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2019, 11:31:28 AM »
I am also a follower of the statistic manner as well, this is the reason why I choose the automatic mechanic roulette as well, which I believe is as unbiased as possible and follows invarariant statistical properties in the long run.

AP players mostly play with human dealers / groupiers, correct?

This is an important distinction I think, AP may be of the belief that they can exploit such dealer or diamond anomalies and biases.
 

fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2019, 11:41:12 AM »
In addition, the power of statistics is that a player gets over the lucky/unlucky sentiment and focuses on the numbers and the statistical phenomenon evolving. Unlucky is now a an extreme statistical series event that will soon revert to its mean (for some an opportunity to leverage their positions) whereas luck is the other side of the statistical extremity that will again soon mean revert (for some a signal to de-leverage their positions).

People cursing at a roulette wheel is just a signal of no systematic play in place.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2019, 12:36:20 PM »
Speaking of statistics and the like ; below is a link to an eBook by John Solitude - Fact and Fiction Guide ; it offers some beginner info along with some interesting intermediate info... Statistics etc etc... Trust some may find it useful...

http://www.john-solitude.be/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/JS-Roulette.pdf

Regards

Sam...

 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2019, 03:17:39 PM »
I am also a follower of the statistic manner as well, this is the reason why I choose the automatic mechanic roulette as well, which I believe is as unbiased as possible and follows invarariant statistical properties in the long run.

AP players mostly play with human dealers / groupiers, correct?

This is an important distinction I think, AP may be of the belief that they can exploit such dealer or diamond anomalies and biases.
   AP stands for advantage player ( play).
 Biggest one is casino industry themselves.  Their advantage is hardwired in games rules. 
These who can disrupt odds in their favor become AP as well ( same as casinos).
   It's naive to think that AP is "that or this"... AP is someone who can see advantage,maintain it and explore it to his favor.
    Math, and it's branches  ( stats, physics. ..ets) are weapons of choice of A Players.
   Same as there are only few real quants at markets, there are only few AP in casino industry... we all know each other, if not directly, then with the help of friends...
   AP is a black bone and blue blud of casino industry. ... independently of the side of the table.
 

fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #25 on: May 18, 2019, 03:52:35 PM »
Thanks for the clarification Mr.Perfect, makes sense.

Agreed, identifying the advantage and playing it in your favor is the way to win over the famous 2.70% house edge. Stats or math among others are just tools to achieve the AP.

I am not very familiar with the jargon here, so I thought AP described the professional player who sits over roulette tables with human dealers and tries to estimate and predict the "hand" od the dealer, the most frequently hit diamond of that specific wheel etc.

By the way, one question please, are automatic mechanic roulette wheels popular across Europe at casino venues?

For example in Greece, in Athens, the most famous casino has just 2 such roulettes playing 24/7.

I am asking because my real tests are done on such type of roulettes only for now.

Thanks in advance
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #26 on: May 18, 2019, 05:17:54 PM »
Check novomatic, interblock,  evolution,  alfastreet,  admiral,  organic. ... it's auto wheels brands. On respective websites you may find map of their costumer distribution as well...
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #27 on: May 18, 2019, 05:34:39 PM »
excellent, thanks for the promt reply and help. I will dig through
 
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fiben7

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #28 on: May 19, 2019, 06:59:18 PM »
Fiben7,  don't get me wrong. .. and welcome to the forum.
   Btw,  there was a paper made by quant about one specific roulette device 
      https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,1707.0.html
Could you please give your opinion on it?


*** also posted in your topic ***

MrPerfect,

As per your kidn request, I had a look at the paper in this topic discussing a quantitative trading approach to a specific roulette wheel.

I have to agree with your main point here, that the logic of the writer when choosing straight numbers to flat bet just because the in-sample probability of appearance during the first 5,000 spins is higher than 3%, looks rather naive. Kelly's comparison to FBS looks poor as well, it is not well put and tested through robust sensitivity analysis.

A few points of my own

  • I do not believe that 10,000 spins are enough for any statistically significant result and system development, whatsoever if this system is as simple as bet on some straight numbers that looks like they appear more often than usual
  • Math is nice and relevant to the topic under study here. The author tries to formalize his concept in a concrete way, no harm there. However, math should be used with a wise mind based on the actual practicality. Example, it makes no sense that the author uses a Chi square test to check whether the roulette is biased, the result of the test is that the roulette is not biased but then the author says that he could exploit short-term biases of the roulette on betting on certain numbers. whaaaaat???
  • the quantitative approach is evident here and as per my post, I fully agree on the point to use quantitative tools in order to analyze, evaluate and compare roulette systems and strategies; maximum drawdown, calmar ratio etc are powerful enough to lay the truth upon our eyes
  • in order to use such quantitative tools, I agree with you that there is no need for players to understand or follow such advanced math; as you said, prob is 1/37 and payouts per type bet is also known and simple to understand for all players. after the real play, one could just use the series of recorded spins and analyze such performance metrics through simple excel functions or relative finance software packages
  • in addition to my previous point, given the fact that when playing live on a roulette, the player is not allowed to have any application, laptop, tablet etc using software that features all such complicated and difficult math to generate predictions but is only allowed to have a pen and a paper, then the complicated math stuff becomes unapplicable in reality. Whatever system one has, needs to be practical, i.e. all calculations and rules, trigger signals etc. should be relatively easy to be performed at the limited time between each spin.
Kind regards MrPerfect.
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Reply #29 on: May 20, 2019, 08:26:41 AM »
fiben 7: roulette has 37 different chances. Every chance has his own sequence. Short sessions does not fulfill the stipulations of randomness. But what is a short session.The one number bet has a short session of one happening. The 37 number has a short session of more than a million spins. For all chances you can statistical compute the length of a short session. There where a short session change in a long session , I have called that point DTOP.For a 18 number bet it is about 250 spins.
 
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