### Author Topic: valid system?  (Read 807 times)

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#### Joe

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2019, 11:30:41 AM »

So my question is right now i have been trying some play recording to my analyses and i found out if i play a certain way, after 1900 spin CW i would have been 1200 units in profit. Playing 5 numbers acording to my trigger.

So would you say its valid if been in profit 1200 units after 1900 spins?
Ok let's see. 1200 u profit means 297 wins if you're playing 5 numbers. The probability of a win is 5/37 = 0.1352 but in your sample the empirical probability is 297/1900 = 0.1563, which is obviously higher. But you really need to find out what the probability is that you would have got that result (or better) by chance alone. You can do a binomial test to find out-
Putting the numbers in you get this-

2.685 standard deviations above the mean is quite good, but you should really get more results before coming to any conclusions.

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#### bulow

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2019, 02:20:32 PM »

2.685 standard deviations above the mean is quite good, but you should really get more results before coming to any conclusions.

Hi Joe

Thanks for your time and input, looking through all the data i have around 2000 spins now and around 1500 unit plus. But yeah i see that more results should be there before any conclusion thats why i started this topic. How many spins do you think is enough to drag any conclusion or to decide that i might have broke this wheel?

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2019, 02:35:41 PM »
Need : spins as they come one by one.
Your prediction, final number. Two columns.
There is a high probability you are not required to predict there at all, you probably can just bet. And for higher return as well...
If you took anything besides your prediction and outcome, that is wellcome as well. If not, it's fine.
Do not post totals, l can count, besides it has almost no value...  same as distances. Just belive me on this one. Need your prediction, resulting number, side by side, spin by spin as they come one after other...
When you post it, l will look and post what l see... probably you gonna like it.
Just 2 columns... prediction, result...as they come.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2019, 02:40:10 PM by MrPerfect. »

#### bulow

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2019, 09:48:25 AM »
Oh sorry i misunderstood, i will post it Mr.P the thing is i think i only have like 500 spin that way, cause i startet just writing down how many pockets it fell away from my target, and stopped writing pred. number and final result. But i will write down the data i have of pred. number and final number and post it.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 10:05:06 AM by kav »

#### Joe

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2019, 10:34:02 AM »

Hi Joe

Thanks for your time and input, looking through all the data i have around 2000 spins now and around 1500 unit plus. But yeah i see that more results should be there before any conclusion thats why i started this topic. How many spins do you think is enough to drag any conclusion or to decide that i might have broke this wheel?
Don't worry about the number of spins too much, just use the web site I linked to above to get the standard deviation every few hundred spins. You need the number of wins, the number of bets and the probability of a win which is 5/37. If you have a winner the standard deviation should keep going up. If it starts to go down or regress then it's no better than random betting.

#### Joe

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2019, 10:48:12 AM »
Better yet, you can download the free "significance" software from my website

#### bulow

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2019, 10:59:57 AM »
Better yet, you can download the free "significance" software from my website

Hi Joe

Thanks again, i tried to download it but since i use Mac it seems that i cant open the file, is there by any chance a version for mac?

#### Joe

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2019, 11:20:28 AM »
Hi Joe

is there by any chance a version for mac?
Sorry, Windows only. But it should work using a Windows emulator? Never had a mac and don't have access to one so can't say if it will or not, worth a try though.

#### bulow

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2019, 11:54:42 AM »
Need : spins as they come one by one.
Your prediction, final number. Two columns.
There is a high probability you are not required to predict there at all, you probably can just bet. And for higher return as well...
If you took anything besides your prediction and outcome, that is wellcome as well. If not, it's fine.
Do not post totals, l can count, besides it has almost no value...  same as distances. Just belive me on this one. Need your prediction, resulting number, side by side, spin by spin as they come one after other...
When you post it, l will look and post what l see... probably you gonna like it.
Just 2 columns... prediction, result...as they come.

So i just wrote down the info i had on prediction number and final number. the first 619 result is number by number. and the last 60 result is taken today.  since i mentioned that i stopped writing down prediction number and only wrote the pockets between pred. and final result, and that was apperently after 619 spins, i stopped doing that.

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2019, 05:46:17 AM »
As you can see, they are not randomly scattered around the wheel... appreciate chance of randomness.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 05:48:36 AM by MrPerfect. »

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2019, 05:56:50 AM »
And here are your final numbers. Exactly 15 % on 5 number sector around number 1.
Funny, isnt it?

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #26 on: May 14, 2019, 06:00:03 AM »

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #27 on: May 14, 2019, 06:11:33 AM »
Now coming back to the topic.
My conclusion :
Method is not valid. Wheel is very good and exibit beatable behaviour. ..l would play definitely.
If you consider to learn how to track properly and adjust for rotor speeds, your results will be better.

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #28 on: May 14, 2019, 06:49:35 AM »
I think my conclusion sounded too harsh.  I didn't intend to be mean,  just objective.
The thing is that on this particular wheel it may ( or may not) work. But qwestion is why to bother? There is same 15% available statically on the numbers... so why predict, adjust, calculate distances? Much better to go for static numbers and play Kelly criteria for example.
Attention... it's not a call to go all out. To play bias numbers is very good to understand why and when they are biased... so proper tracking is required.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2019, 06:52:38 AM by MrPerfect. »

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#### bulow

##### Re: valid system?
« Reply #29 on: May 14, 2019, 08:44:06 AM »
I think my conclusion sounded too harsh.  I didn't intend to be mean,  just objective.
The thing is that on this particular wheel it may ( or may not) work. But qwestion is why to bother? There is same 15% available statically on the numbers... so why predict, adjust, calculate distances? Much better to go for static numbers and play Kelly criteria for example.
Attention... it's not a call to go all out. To play bias numbers is very good to understand why and when they are biased... so proper tracking is required.

Hi Mr. P

Thank you so much!, no i don't think your mean at all, i like that you are honest, and you just opened my eyes to go even further. And you just made me realise why the late sessions hasn't been good compared to the beginning maybe its because i dont get the prediction to be around number 1. And looking through it myself now i see that you are completely right about bias on this wheel. And now i will go further and see when there is 10 rev. left i will see which sector the ball is at, and then see where it drops. Maybe i can find a pattern to identify the biased sector more. So i dont play it all the time and only when i see a strong signal.

Your help is much appreciatet belive me on that.