Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: The Talos EC Progression Ladder  (Read 2259 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2019, 02:12:11 AM »
Ok, after all that work and everything, here is a method that maybe can bypass all that charting because it is so easy to calculate.  Its pretty much flat betting with the exception of a couple of situations that occur.

1) Bet EC 4 times, 1 2 4 8 until down 15 units
2) Bet DZ 5 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 2 spins; e.g. 1 hit on the Spin #1 and 1 hit on Spin #3
3) Bet DS 10 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 5 spins or lose all 10 spins in a row
4) Bet Quad 15 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 8 spins or lose all 15 spins in a row
5) Bet Street 20 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 11 spins or lose all 20 spins in a row
6) Bet Bet Split 30 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 17 spins or lose all 30 spins in a row
7) Bet SU 60 times until achieve 2 hits in a row within 35 spins or lose all 60 spins in a row

Every time you win a step (i.e. 2 hits in a row in the specified number of spins), you move up a step.

If you exit Step #7, raise your unit size by 1 and attack #7 again.

Raise Trigger: Anytime you receive two full step failures back to back, temporarily double your unit size.  Double it again after the minimum number of win spins (e.g. 8 spins on a quad, 11 spins on a street etc) and keep doubling it (i.e. every 60/min., 60/min., etc.) until a single hit occurs.

I haven't tested the raise trigger too much but I think it is solid.

I am still testing this shorcut but it looks promising.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 02:15:19 AM by Third »
 
The following users thanked this post: leowls, UnlikelySam, Astutillo

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2019, 05:03:59 AM »
Ok, the first issue is a profit leak that occurs when we get our two wins for each selection and find ourselves back at the EC level but are even more than 10 units shy of our all time high. 

I like the idea of flat betting but either there has to be some small raising or more bets/wins need to be made farther inward on the felt.

I propose that we play it through and when we arrive at the EC level, we examine our balance.  If it is more than 5 units from our all time high, we determine where to bet next with the following:

6-10 units = DZ
11-20 units = DS
21-30 units = Quad
31-40 units = Street
41-50 units = Split
51+ = SU

After a hit, if we find ourselves lower on the felt than this chart, then we move upwards to the proper category.

This, gentlemen, appears to be a winner!

More testing...
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 05:41:00 AM by Third »
 

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2019, 07:23:40 AM »
We can score our sessions as follows:

W = hit within the minimum number of spins
w = hit within the maximum number of spins (60 numbers bet)
L = miss in the maxmimum number of spins

What we are betting against with the Raise Trigger is:

LL L

So, once we pass the minimum number of spins, we double our bets because we are betting that the 3rd L event will not appear; i.e. we will get a hit before the maximum number of spins.

So, if we miss, we will have:

LLL L

And we double again.  We double once more at the minimum.  If we miss, we will have:

LLLL L

And NOW we are betting against 0:300 which is a very rare event:

.9997550201416016 which is 1:4082 coup attempts.

So I don't think this trigger is too aggressive but it might be.  So far I haven't been bit. :)



My first test is complete!  I reached 280 coups by simply betting Low and focusing all my quad,street,split & SU bets on the number 1.  The raise trigger struck large and won me over 100 units to put me over the top.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 08:24:35 AM by Third »
 
The following users thanked this post: UnlikelySam, Astutillo

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2019, 11:30:03 AM »
Wow, all my initial testing is showing that this "hip shooting" parachute is quite solid.  I feel a certain freedom playing it, like as if I would know what Talos means when he says "something must happen"; I see the way the numbers roll out either within expectation or outside of it and either within 60 numbers bet or outside of it and I just "know" that it can't keep coming back outside of these and its just a matter of time before the series of hits I am looking for will come in and it doesn't matter which numbers I am betting, they will come in no matter which selection I use.

From another thread, I have also found that the 2 Dozen Labby, when played conservatively seems very safe and a very reliable way to make 10 units, while being fully in control of the amount risked.

Experiencing these things so far, makes me want to start playing this way because of the advantages gained; i.e. higher win rate, more relaxing play and even possibly less overall units required to be safe. 

Tbh, I am scared to try it.  Roulette is a deceptive and deadly foe and I have been crushed so many times that I fear moving into new waters...


One issue of major concern is how my unit size is raised during play and at the end of my long-term profit cycle, I am dealing with 8x my starting unit size; I make a mistake at this level, I could blow a large majority of my bankroll...

EXAMPLE

I play the 2 Dozen Labby with my unit size at 8x and lose 18 units.  So now I am down 18x8=144 base units (1x).  Ok, so no big deal, its just units right? 

Ok, well I break out the Talos Hip Chute and I get hit with a sequence like:

LLLLL

That is 5x8 Dozen, 10x8 DS, 15x8 Quad, 20x8 Street and 30x8 Split, which puts me down 80 units (which isn't bad) but these are at 8x and so I am down 640 base units now and I am betting a SU number.

Granted, I have 1500 units available and I am only down 80 and roulette simply won't be bringing anything more than 7 L's in a row, which would look like this:

LL

Which is 60x1, followed by 60x2, for a total of 180 units additional.  I will then receive a hit, and so let's say its at 27 spins, I will gain 16 units of profit and so I am down 244 units and have 1256/2 = 628 units remaining.

So here I am betting a straight up number with over half my bankroll gone...

What I am counting on is that roulette is going to start delivering hits and my unit size increase is going to magnify that and I will recover but the problem is that I haven't done a large amount of recoveries at this level and with roulette being as tricky as it is, can I really say with enough certainty that I can rely upon recovering from this situation?

Now, compare that with how I normally recover.  I only use .67x units to bet and I have 9000 of them available.  I have a tonne of experience recovering from deep debt and am confident in my play and the debt levels that can be generated.

I am so scared that my debt will spiral out of control playing the Hip Chute!

« Last Edit: May 09, 2019, 12:05:33 PM by Third »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Astutillo

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2019, 10:49:44 PM »
Quote
Raise Trigger: Anytime you receive two full step failures back to back, temporarily double your unit size.  Double it again after the minimum number of win spins (e.g. 8 spins on a quad, 11 spins on a street etc) and keep doubling it (i.e. every 60/min., 60/min., etc.) until a single hit occurs.

Just wanted to post an update about this trigger:

DON'T DO THIS!!!

I played it for the first time today and it was the most horrific thing I have ever done.  I saw a number had gone missing for 200 spins and so I started the marty, first betting against LLLL and when that failed, continued to bet against LLLLL; I went 2 4 8 and then 16 (the table limits were 20!!)!!!!

In case you were wondering, the number came in around spin 270 but believe me when I tell you that when I finished with the 8, I had a serious bit of considering over chucking the whole thing but I put down the 16 and started spinning anyway.

Let me tell you that the profit that came back was VERY SMALL compared to the risked amount and I learned this up close and personal; I was absolutely horrified (at all the risk) and disgusted (at the small returns)!!!

ITS NOT WORTH IT!!!!
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 10:57:20 PM by Third »
 
The following users thanked this post: kav, Astutillo

Rinad

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2019, 11:57:19 PM »


    sorry you had to go through it Third.  I have been there myself trust me. thanks for posting.

Rinad
 
The following users thanked this post: Third

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2019, 05:00:21 AM »
I also wanted to point out that the recovery system is pretty interesting the way it soaks of losses at the higher levels which allows us to profit more easily at the lower levels.

On the Raise Trigger, I have simply substituted a temporary 1 unit raise (D'Alembert) instead of the marty.  At least that way our profit is greater than it would have been but without all the massive insane risk for such little reward.
 
The following users thanked this post: Astutillo

UnlikelySam

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2019, 11:03:37 AM »
Third it's only you bro that could find the weakest flaw in any system... Much respect bro much respect... 8)  Your thoroughness and in depth research like a scientist in his quest for ground shattering results is very appreciated...
 
The following users thanked this post: Astutillo

DrTalos

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2019, 04:11:07 PM »
The issue with your progression is that there is room for it to spiral out of control.
As it did. The riddle to solve if you do not want to use a flat bet is exactly that. What helped me was considering an option to bet two opposite Ec. Was like "if I bet Black and Red, one of the two will hit" . I know it is absurd, pure nonsense, but helped me to find a way to always cut the exposition.
 
 
The following users thanked this post: Rinad, leowls, Third, Nisayon

Rinad

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2019, 05:26:36 PM »


     I am so glad you bring this up Dr Talos.  two of the same bets may sound absurd when you dont know the reason for doing it but it meets a purpose.  even betting 2 tottaly different groups of numbers played at once can compliment eachother. 

Rinad
 

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2019, 08:48:20 PM »
Ok, well the secret there is simply doing the math, subtracting what you are betting on Red and what you are betting on Black and simply bet the difference on the one with the highest total.

Since we know that Talos is very deep into the game of roulette, the above formula is probably involved in his method?
 

Rinad

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #26 on: May 12, 2019, 01:06:36 AM »


   here is weakness to consider. all ec's may be the same in terms of odds, but are they the same in term of betting opportunities ? I dont think so at all. cut the carpet in half and attack high/lows.  now you have a whole different game. when losing a high bet or low bet you can stay within your half of the felt and go after dz,ds,st,ect....  you cant do that with red/black.  very well known that the advantage of team play is that variance is greatly reduced no matter what game is played.
then math of couse comes into play.

Rinad
 
The following users thanked this post: Third

DrTalos

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #27 on: May 12, 2019, 02:55:26 AM »
Sorry, I did not meant to mislead you, but probably I did. Allow me to clarify.
  First of all, I am not talking about the system or progression I use. I try to be of some help with your ideas, when I think are valuable.
Second, more specific. What I meant is that we have to keep our bets low by all means. I do not talk about EC or Dozen or else. I talk about concepts. In order to keep a progression at , we need to hit. And if we wish to hit frequently, we shouldn't rely on few numbers or sleep on a bet. We must move and adapt, using to our advantage the variety that the game offer us. Sometimes it is better get a hit gaining back just a single unit from our exposure than nothing.
 
The following users thanked this post: Third

Rinad

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #28 on: May 12, 2019, 04:04:03 AM »


  Dr Talos thank you for clarifying.

I know you were only speaking about concepts and ideas and not about red/black .  but thinking out of the box is where you are trying to get players to do.
there can be a lot of ways to keep the bets low and using 2 ec's or other plays to do just that in my opinion is a good concept even if miss-anderstood.  why not do anything if it can buy you time until the hits come.
the parachute idea has been the most used to acomplish that but it is not the answer and perhaps just a piece of the whole pie. I like the "not staying with just the same group too long idea" .  38 numbers is what real-estate we have to deal with. and since the ball cant hit in two places at once we can reduce the spots by covering or paying rent somewhere while we wait for our numbers to come home? 
just my thoughts.
cheers,

R.
 

Third

Re: The Talos EC Progression Ladder
« Reply #29 on: May 12, 2019, 08:10:58 AM »
I would like to point out a few things about this parachute method:

1) There is a raise at the bottom when we reach SU and miss 60 times in a row.  This raise is permanent for the entire recovery.

2) There is a raise when back to back 60 numbers bet occurs (+1 unit).  This raise is temporary until a hit is gained.

3) According to Dr. Talos' opinion that many spins soak up negative variance (to which I wholeheartedly agree), this system does this for the least cost possible, while using the advantage of the felted bets to maxmize the winnings.

4) This parachute system automatically calculates the original Dr. Talos 1:60 hits to spins ratio with no math required.  One only needs to count spins.

Granted this method is spin heavy and so playing online is required. 
 
The following users thanked this post: Astutillo