Author Topic: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?  (Read 978 times)

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scepticus

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #30 on: May 19, 2019, 04:48:30 PM »
SamThe basic question that needs to be answered is-  " Is YOUR method profitable " ? Analysing historic data is a good intellectual exercise  but does it  produce  profits. I have seen little or no evidence that it does.

Askyourself  - Why are members here still " evolving " if they have a profitable method ? 

The more Historic spins used the more “TRENDS”  appear . The more “ Trends “ that appear the greater the problem to determine which one to follow. Why no CLEAR consistent  dominant trend ?REPEATERS , too ,  leads to more “ systems” and leads the Bettor to “ Follow the Dominant Repeater  “

Different Bettors see  different trends / repeaters . Some even see both. 
“Oh.Look !  The x trend  / repeater I’ll follow that .  Oh. Dear ! It has disappeared and the y trend  /  repeater has appeared  so I’ll follow that ! Many views - many systems derived  from Historic data appear and disappear . Why ? Because  the variables  are many and keep moving  - and not moving .
ALL trends will appear at some time so the question is - When ? No one knows  because no one CAN know . What you see is “ cloud formations “ but nothing concrete .

Negative Progressions are an added hazard as no one knows WHEN a win will occur . Progressions are a “ siren song “ luring Bettors into deep waters . They work . Until they don’t and when they don’t the Bettor blames Bad Luck while ruing his losses. They break one of the basic rules of gambling - Don’t Chase Losses .
Mathematicians have given us some tools that may help us.
The 9 Block ( Note . Not MY 9 block  ! )
The 5 in 7 Chart.
The Dice calculation.
The Expectation Chart posted by Victorwally .
Newcomers  to roulette should be wary of claims that it is EASY to win at roulette and claims of winning  of “ Thousands “ !    They need to  be cautious - not foolhardy .  Before thinking of what they  may win ask themselves first what they are likely to lose . And - Is It Worth The Risk ? 
 

scepticus

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #31 on: May 19, 2019, 04:57:26 PM »
Stratege

I haven't replied to MickyP's posts for some time now so there is no chance of renewing our " morbid "discussion.
Don't leave the forum . Just let Micky P indulge in his fantasy that he earns a living betting roulette .  You and I are not the only ones subjected to his hatred  . I and others refuse to respond - and so should you .     
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #32 on: May 19, 2019, 05:35:19 PM »
Scepticus, I don't mind that you don't reply to my posts directly because I know you read my posts and reply to them in posts directed at other members. Either way, my posts still get tucked away under your pillow at night. I'm in your head Scepticus and maybe you even dream about me, who knows.

PMS, just ease up on the use of distorted words in your writing. Try writing like a normal person and have the content of your message speak for you. No need to leave the forum.

You said you were going to start a thread and that I wouldn't be welcome to be part of it. Good for you, at least there will be a thread that will contain your sermons and I will not derail it unless you once again focus on me and not roulette or whatever subject you will be discussing. Stick around; Scepticus really needs friends and so do you.
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #33 on: May 19, 2019, 06:11:48 PM »
" SamThe basic question that needs to be answered is-  " Is YOUR method profitable " ? "

Scep yes it is as it has more wins than losses however I think " historical data" is a little open to interpretation as in how far back historically eg. 1 spin or 37 spins or 100 spins. As I said im not a fan of negative progressions ; however sometimes I will incorporate it if needs be but never chasing the losses as stop losses are in place along with profit margins. If I lose that session so be it as I will make that in the next and so on and so on...

Scep I know what you are implying by playing various triggers simultaneously which may lead to chasing more losses and BR depletion at a faster pace for one ; spontaneously placing bets when "triggers" appear... However IMHO one needs to be more devious and crafty as to their bet selection/s ; they may play more than one method at a time provided they are in total control of the situation ; not the "House"... If you do not possess any self control and discipline ; then frankly speaking do yourself the biggest favour and do not Gamble ; period...

Lastly Man has the ability to evolve and why should we not ; however it does not mean you have to reinvent the proverbial wheel... You may fine-tune a strategy by implementing appropriate stop losses and realistic profit margins as when you put it to play under live conditions after numerous testing beforehand you may come across ways to improve your strategy...

Just my 2 cents Scep...

Regards

Sam..

 
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scepticus

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #34 on: May 19, 2019, 11:28:46 PM »
Good to know Sam, that your betting shows a profit.

Yes. “ Historical Data “ is open  to how much . My point here is that no one knows how much is enough. The usual amounts range from 100,000 UPWARDS , not one -two -four -six -ten hundred. Just how can anyone play long enough to collect  hundred of thousands . Anything less is not considered sufficient to be of any use . So, unless you have  collected Hundred of thousands of spin results then your
data  is , according to Statisticians ,useless  for meaningful evaluation.
 In addition “ Historical Data “ is open to interpretation so it depends on the individual’s interpretation . If it is open to different interpretations then how can you do anything but have one of many opinions ?   Can they all be right ?

Play several methods at the same time ? These all need to be capable of profit in their own right . Even then you may flnd that one loses what the other wins so where is the point when  profits are reduced ?The sensible thing to do is bet the most profitable of your strategies. Anything less suggests lack of confidence , not a good trait in a gambler.  You are quite wrong to think that you are in control . Variance is in control and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t understand the problem.

You miss my point about “ evolving “ . A child “ evolves” to become a Man but then his “ evolving” is complete. All he can do is become “the  best he can be “ . He cannot evolve further and become a fish or bird , can he ?. Similarly with the roulette player . If  he  becomes the owner of a profitable method then he works to make THAT  method “ the best it can be “ .

“ If I do not possess self  control and discipline “? .   I smiled at that   Sam !

 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #35 on: May 20, 2019, 10:31:11 AM »
For purposes of testing a system, strategy or method there is a database of spins that players have at their disposal. The testing phase requires a large amount of spins (spin history) in order to test it thoroughly. Playing a tested and approved method in a casino is a different story. A few spins may signal that you can commence play.

Playing several different methods in a day is wise. You see, each method operates on different parameters and the recent spin history gives an indication on what method will be best suited to play at that time. I's all part of strategic play. If I am at a table and the numbers start doing a dance, I select a method to play that falls into the rhythm of the dance. Matching a method with table spin history has served me well. That's not to say the other methods I use would not have performed well. Why push a method to its limits if you don't have to? Playing different methods has got its merits. It's almost like using the methods on a "hit and run" basis. You do understand "hit and run", don't you Septic?

Dealing with variance is taken care of in the testing phase where parameters for a method are set. What we can't avoid are anomalies that are rare but the parameters of a method will prevent total loss even in rare cases. No approach is perfect and lost sessions are inevitable; they are a part of the game. Playing strategically and selectively simply increases the chance of success. A good example is Palestis Single Dozen System where Palestis uses virtual play to bypass B2B losses before he plays. Not perfect but because of testing the limitations are known and the odds of a string of B2B losses is extremely rare.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2019, 10:33:53 AM by MickyP »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #36 on: May 20, 2019, 11:40:55 AM »

Thanks Scep...  Sorry I should have been much more clear ; my apologies as I was making reference to historical data during Live session play... I did not make mention of "system testing" deliberately as its a subject that has been debated many a times on the various forums with very varied opinions...

You are correct we may never in our Lifetime be in a position to play 100 000 spins in a real B&M setting ; well maybe if we setup another home there... :P However with the Dawn of access to information ; I have 3 million live spin data and  2 million RNg spin data and access to B&M data from different sites. However how valid would this all these testing actually be ; especially if one  is into dealer signature at their B&M of choice or is that irrelevant as its just all random either way... It's also believed that testing 100 k spins will expose the flaws of a system as it goes through the ups and downs of variance which may never be revealed during the short run of live play...

Yes Scep I know what you are thinking with my last statement ; " Why bother going through the long haul then - just hit and look for the quickest exit... " I agree... When I system test something it's just purely to see how a system fares over time and it in no means deters  me from playing it under live conditions if it fails and I can ascertain it can gain some profit over the short run...

Seven methods simultaneously ; however with a strategy in mind .. Ok ok  Perhaps two or three lol... Ok I get what you mean by sticking to one method and one only provided it's a "Champion"... Unfortunately Variance is always the enemy and sometimes it even invokes suspicions that the House is " at it again ". How do we counteract Variance then ; play shorter sessions - somehow I think that's not the entire solution at every occasion. Personally I rather just stop right there and move on ; no point trying to fight Variance as it would be like an object that is being pushed and pulled at the same time going nowhere fast...

Yes perhaps I missed your point about Evolution but I do acknowledge being the best version of yourself 8) ... P.s> I'm glad I brought a chuckle to you ; there's just far too much seriousness in this world which leads to substantially more issues also... :)

Regards

Sam...

*** Sorry Micky if my post seems to include similar content to your last one. I posted it before reading yours hence the similarities if any :o
« Last Edit: May 20, 2019, 11:48:50 AM by UnlikelySam »
 
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scepticus

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #37 on: May 20, 2019, 07:14:52 PM »
O.K. Sam,

Look at it this  way. You have a method that produces a profit of 20%. You  also have a method that produces a profit of 28%. Betting both at the same time gives an average profit of 24%. Why not just bet method B?

And if you bet 3 or more methods at the same time ?

Variance can kill both whether one at a time or both together. You are right there though. Variance is the real enemy - not the unfair odds.

Regards

Scep.

 

UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #38 on: May 20, 2019, 07:52:37 PM »
Scep I really do understand that you prefer taking 1 direct train and 1 only no stops in between the journey(session) and that's perfectly acceptable as its not everyone's cup of tea to stop and smell the roses along the way... However Scep I think I mentioned this before while playing my way of play  if I see YXX on the scoreboard and just make a note of it and then forget about it and then when I see the scoreboard again and realise Y has missed in 7 spins Scep I am going to go for the Kill for 4 spins and if it so were to fail then I just continue with other play...

If it were to happen again then you know whats next :D but somewhere down the line we must know when to just focus on the game at hand but that's a personal preference... Everyone has there own signature of play and if it helps them profit even a bit then thats just Great...
« Last Edit: May 20, 2019, 07:55:28 PM by UnlikelySam »
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #39 on: May 21, 2019, 10:40:21 AM »
Here is a scenario where you would use two methods at a table, playing one at a time.
The two methods are Palestis Single Dozen System and the Dozen Drive.

You start playing the Dozen Drive because you have good representation of all three dozens in recent spin history at the table. During your games you lose a game as the target dozen has fallen asleep (a dozen can sleep for many spins) and instead of waiting  for that dozen to resurface you switch to Palestis Single Dozen System and take advantage of the two dozens that are dominating the table as triggers will form fast and games will be won just as fast. Here are two methods that have a lot in common but perform best under different circumstances.

With both methods at hand, a player can play continuously through the different chops of a number sequence. Not 100% because we can not predict when the chops will start. The end of the chop is not such a big deal because each game is bet on limited spins. You will not get caught chasing your tail.
 
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MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #40 on: May 21, 2019, 11:06:13 AM »
To answer the question of this thread directly, I present an exercise in discipline.

Practice at home.

Have a mini roulette wheel at hand. Select a large room or passage for the exercise.
Stand upright, breathe in, stomach in, chest out and chin up. For the English, stiffen the upper lip and for the others, avoid chewing gum during the exercise.
Now once you have aligned your body correctly you must balance the mini roulette wheel on your head and bring your arms to your side. Take five to ten steps trying not to let the mini wheel fall. Do not use Velcro or glue to secure the wheel to your head. Rinse and repeat.

This exercise teaches you how to walk like a winner but do not place the mini wheel on your head when you walk into a casino.

This was a free lesson sponsored by "Walking With Millionaires".
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 11:11:32 AM by MickyP »