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Author Topic: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?  (Read 2315 times)

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MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2019, 09:45:03 PM »
Great contribution Rinad. You bring to light the reality of a "seasoned" roulette player. It does require discipline to keep playing a method that will nett you 10 units profit after six spins when you see a streak forming that will potentially give you five times the return you are playing for. Hahaha. I've had the same experience but I have learnt to keep to my method in play. Tough, I know...Missed opportunities but I smile when I think how badly I would have lost had I chased the big win opportunity. That's the shadow of the black swan... lol

The simply guys that play a hundred dollars and move on are hit and run guys that surf between the tables. They play methods but use a lot of virtual betting to build up to a sure win scenario. Think about it.
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2019, 01:44:05 AM »
" all of a sudden I see a opportunity when I see a single dozen showing up for 8 times in a row and I would jump on the other 2 dozens thinking "easy money".  then 10 minutes later I am shaking my head as if a tornado just picked me up and emptied my pocket. here goes the master roulette player!! more then once these special opp.bets took me away from my game plan. "

That there is the absolute truth brother and I'm sure many have experienced that and the rest will experience that...


" Missed opportunities but I smile when I think how badly I would have lost had I chased the big win opportunity. That's the shadow of the black swan... lol "

Micky you are right on the money there ; missed opportunities on the path to self destruction rather... If only we have the self control and discipline not to board that train and instead take the next one - the one we have actually been waiting for ever so patiently ; our " trigger train "...

Regards

Sam...
 
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Stratege

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2019, 05:03:17 AM »
That there is the absolute truth brother and I'm sure many have experienced that and the rest will experience that...

The natural belief that we can deduce and predict !
"To become" a disciplined player, does not seem to be easy by using one's will. The will will yield to our illusions. The problem is I think "our illusions". Testing isn't just about finding a winning method, it's also about leaving illusions by understanding what we can and cannot do with a history of spins and a pile of chips.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 05:07:21 AM by Stratege »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2019, 06:51:29 AM »


"That there is the absolute truth brother and I'm sure many have experienced that and the rest will experience that..."

Stratege I somewhat agree that the word "will" might have been rather too strong and perhaps should have been substituted with "may" ... Lol I did not even have the slightest inclination that I was on the "couch" for analysing and my every word scrutinized with a fine toothed comb.

I was under the impression that that honour was solely bestowed  upon Micky... ::)  To actually allocate time to study another's writings so carefully and meticulously is to an extent a form of flattery. We I humbly thank you Stratege...  :)

Ok now back to logic of the deduction and  prediction module...  Sorry folks for that " ad break..." I agree Man as a mere mortal cannot predict the future ; however he can use a statistical module to assist to forecast the probability of a future event occurring... What is your opinion regarding what "we can and cannot do with a history of spins and a pile of chips ." ?

Regards

Sam...
 
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Stratege

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2019, 08:50:03 AM »
Analysis is a natural faculty, but it becomes a science with "disciplined" training! It's the same with roulette. There is a lot to say with your question. Without the disciplined analysis of a historic of spins, the pile of chips can do nothing in the duration. Just look at the Parlay, 1 2 4 8 16, it's already 31 units, statistically, the zero takes almost 1 unit. So, look for 1 unit with this progression, it quickly becomes an illusion !  :o
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 08:53:10 AM by Stratege »
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2019, 09:29:48 AM »
" Just look at the Parlay, 1 2 4 8 16, it's already 31 units, statistically, the zero takes almost 1 unit. So, look for 1 unit with this progression, it quickly becomes an illusion !  "

Yes this is the age old debate and will ultimately continue to be so ; with a Martingale on an EC bet risk 31 units to win 1 unit ::)  However with a Doz or Col risk 31 units to win 17 units :P  The "line"  often becomes blurred at times were to stop and retreat :'(
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2019, 10:50:31 AM »


The natural belief that we can deduce and predict !
"To become" a disciplined player, does not seem to be easy by using one's will. The will will yield to our illusions. The problem is I think "our illusions". Testing isn't just about finding a winning method, it's also about leaving illusions by understanding what we can and cannot do with a history of spins and a pile of chips.

The "natural belief" you refer to PMS,  is indeed natural as it is part of the make-up of man. Humans have advanced into this technological age because they believed it could be done. They did it mostly through trial and error; look at the Manhattan Project and the race to develop the Atomic bomb as a shinning example of natural belief.

Now, about roulette and discipline. The basis of any methods of prediction is that the there must be a history on the subject and this history is studied and analysed much like weather predictions or the financial markets. Roulette is no different, methods are developed through studying past history and current unfolding history.
Human "will" is his strongest ally and his most formidable foe. I stated earlier that "The player is the weakest link and he is the strongest link to success." I think what you said and what I said amounts to the same thing. But, you use the word "illusion" in a very dilly dally kind of way; almost as though roulette players are still in the dark ages and believe in vampires and zombies. I can assure you, No serious roulette player is under any illusions about the game. Through analyzing the history of the game, developing a method and testing that method the illusion aspect is discarded. Straying away from a well tested approach is where many fail. The reasons are not always related to a battle against the will. At times LOGIC and RATIONAL THOUGHT are the persuading factors in the reason to attempt a short cut.

PMS, in all your sermons on roulette you fixate on EC bets and the Martingale as a point of argument; so dark ages of you.
Go out and play roulette for real money in a casino and build up some "Player Experience" then come back and sing us a song. Maybe you could share with us and tell us how you dominated the game through sheer will.....HAHAHA! What will you do with your pile of chips? Play EC's with a Martingale? I don't think so. HAHAHA!
 

scepticus

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2019, 11:57:37 AM »
"  Yes this is the age old debate and will ultimately continue to be so ; with a Martingale on an EC bet "Yes. Sam . you are  right. The debate  will continue until Bettors realise that analysing  Long Historic data is not the way to go.
Neither is depending  on Negative Progressions  for  profit.  We need to look forward - not back . 
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2019, 01:01:26 PM »
Scepticus, with all due respect, how do you propose "we" look forward? Fact is, spin history is an integral part of roulette prediction so we have to look at spin history in order to predict future outcomes.

Spin history is everything from the current number that has just landed to as far back as you like. Using older spin history has its merits in testing a method. Testing should be conducted from the spin history of different wheels to eliminate spin history with possible bias.

The crux of the matter is in prediction of future spins (that's looking forward) and short of AP style techniques, system players are yet to come up with a way to predict that hasn't already been presented.
We need spin history in order to move forward, or am I wrong?

The EC/Martingale combination can be found in Mr J's book titled "What Not To Do."

Have a great day.
 
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Joe

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2019, 01:02:18 PM »

The player learns through the tedious and often very boring test phase exactly how to apply a method. He knows its limitations and surely he must have practiced the method over and over. He should know exactly what to do in cases where the method is slowly, spin by spin, pushed to its limits. Cracking under pressure is a very common reason for failure. If a player can not handle the pressure then he should readjust the parameters of his method or select a less stressful method to play.

To emphasize my point above and I suppose your point as well, take a look at the number of players/visitors on the forum that want a ready to play HG! No such thing. Plug in and play systems still require an understanding of the system and should be tested thoroughly and hours of practice must follow before real money is waged.
Micky, I agree 100% that any potential system should be thoroughly understood in terms of its performance and weaknesses, and the system developer should have a rule or decision for any eventually which could possibly be encountered. And of course all these rules should be based on research. But once this work is done (which may take years!), isn't the player (the human element) essentially redundant? All that then needs to be done is to play the system faultlessly without emotion; something which computers are very good at.  :D
A "Plug 'n' Play" Holy Grail is of course what everyone is looking for, and I don't see any problem with that, although it's safe to say that no such system would ever be shared on a public forum.

I know there are those who say that "intuition" is required and that no "mechanical" system can ever work, but to my mind, a system must be mechanical, almost by definition.
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2019, 01:26:39 PM »
I agree 99.9% with you Joe. Dobblesteen put it so nicely when he described a system and a strategy. You are right in saying that a system should require no human input other than to follow the rules of the system. Strategies and methods are different because they still require human brain power to function optimally. I like strategy/method play.

In the same manner that we condition the play of any approach, be it system, strategy, method or even AP; we must also condition ourselves as players to "operate" with regard for the parameters of that approach. Player conditioning remains a big hurdle to overcome.
 

Stratege

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #26 on: May 19, 2019, 02:36:01 PM »

Testing isn't just about finding a winning method, it's also about leaving illusions

But, you use the word "illusion" in a very dilly dally kind of way; almost as though roulette players are still in the dark ages and believe in vampires and zombies. I can assure you, No serious roulette player is under any illusions about the game.

Another sterile controversy! If MickyP read with intelligence and not only with his contradictory nature, he would understand that I said that doing tests helps to "leave" his "illusions". Then, if MickyP had studied at university, the theme of "illusions" (with neuroscience, psychobiology, social psychology , psychology and even in economics), he would understand that the "illusion" is at the center of the subjective experience that drives the player inexperienced to believe that he can anticipate on the hazard. Different experiences in social psychology have been made. One group chooses a lottery ticket, and another group does not choose their ticket. Those who chose, agree to negotiate the redemption of their ticket, to a value almost twice as high as the other group. It's the illusion that a personal choice to a lottery game has more chance of winning! I'm not going to talk about the limbic system (brain of emotions) etc, I would not want MickyP to be even more enraged by understanding his idiotic ideas (his "illusions" about me).
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 03:04:14 PM by Stratege »
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2019, 03:33:04 PM »
"Yes. Sam . you are  right. The debate  will continue until Bettors realise that analysing  Long Historic data is not the way to go.
Neither is depending  on Negative Progressions  for  profit.  We need to look forward - not back . "


Scep you know we value your opinion ; well at least I do  :D  However I got to agree with Micky here... I and I'm sure many other players rely on historical data input to configure our strategy of play... Our future  triggers are based on past results... I guess you could say we are guilty of being " repeater " offenders :P

I myself love a good flat every now and then... However sometimes it's just not enough to get us out of the Rabbit Hole especially when the variance settles in... I know bet selection is " Key " to eliminate the utilization of a negative progression but until then... :-[
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 03:42:36 PM by UnlikelySam »
 

MickyP

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #28 on: May 19, 2019, 04:00:21 PM »
"the "illusion" is at the center of the subjective experience that drives the player inexperienced to believe that he can anticipate on the hazard."

@PMS. Try and rephrase the vomit (in blue) you wrote so the less educated among us can get a feel of your tickle.
Your writing leads me to believe that you failed to put your limited education to good use.

"I would not want MickyP to be even more enraged by understanding his idiotic ideas (his "illusions" about me)."

Words from a moron who preaches world peace....HaHaHa! You fascinate me to no end and I really don't even bother too much with your dribble because to this point you have only recited the words of others in a very poor manner (your writing really sucks, buddy). Share your roulette experience with the needy. Should be a blast! HaHaHa
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 04:02:09 PM by MickyP »
 

Stratege

Re: Advice on how to become a more disciplined gambler?
« Reply #29 on: May 19, 2019, 04:47:25 PM »
 The injurious tone that one addresses on a regular basis is the obvious sign of a pathology. I don't want to feed the other's need to vent his hatred to feel a little better, a brief moment. From now on, I will no longer communicate on the public forum. I will continue to communicate or respond in private message to those who wish.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2019, 04:49:44 PM by Stratege »