palestis,

I think you misunderstand me, I'm not in the "Real" camp regarding math. I do have a lot of respect for the guy because he really is an expert in advantage play, but as far as he's concerned the mathematical expectation tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about the "game". He takes the view that the random game is unbeatable, so you have to target the physical device, environmental conditions, dealer "signature" and so on. It's not that he's seriously tried the other way and found it wanting, it's just that he dismisses it as a fallacy, because the mathematical expectation of the "ideal" game says that you will inevitably lose "in the long run" owing to the unfair payout, no matter what fancy systems or MM you use.

I know he's mistaken, because I and others do consistently make a profit without using physics. Mathematical expectation is not the ONLY thing that determines whether you win or lose, and I'm not talking about the stuff that gambler's bang on about as being crucial, like "quitting while ahead" (which is meaningless unless you plan to never play again) or self-discipline, which is necessary of course, but not sufficient.

There is a kind of "toolbox" of techniques which I use in order to keep the deviations within reasonable limits. and once you can do that, MM takes care of the rest. One of those techniques is to exploit anomalies in the random stream, just as you do. I wouldn't be surprised if we play in a very similar way.

In a nutshell, I attack an anomaly for one or two spins, betting that it will end. If it doesn't I bet that it will continue, then when it does end I switch again and bet that it won't immediately repeat. I have one eye on my W/L results and switch to a different target if things aren't going well. I never "chase" a target with steep progressions, and I always follow a pattern as long as it continues to win. It's that simple.

I have written various programs which track spins and reveal patterns and anomalies, extreme events etc. There are countless opportunities occurring all the time, and I never wait for "triggers", but bet every spin.

I've attached a screenshot of one sequence of my morning's play. After the two long losing sequences (marked with black circles) I started betting for a return to some kind of normality. An event like this (6 wins out of the last 34 spins) is obviously an extreme event and cannot continue. Even if it HAD continued for a bit longer it wouldn't have been a disaster because I would just have kept my bets low until there was some indication of leveling off.

I strongly disagree about your assessment of probability as being useless, or worse, as an aid to playing roulette.

THE PLAYER PLAYS IN THE SHORT RUN. And in the short run the rules of probability do not apply.

In the first place, there is no definite line of demarcation between the "short run" and the "long run"; it's a matter of degree. And isn't the long run just a succession of short runs? In statistical jargon, the "sample" MUST resemble the "population" in some degree in terms of the relative frequency of events.

As I said in my previous post, the probability in the long run of an event (which is what you say IS valid, but useless for the short run - namely, playing roulette), is the BEST GUESS in the short run. If there was not a tendency for a series of single outcomes or events to converge towards their long run probability, then the long run probability would be something OTHER than what it is. That's just common sense.

And you seem to be ignoring the point I made earlier about Ashley Revell. Does probability really have NOTHING to say about what may be the best strategy to use for someone who wants to make his bank last as long as possible during an evening in the casino? This is surely the "short run", but according to you, it makes no difference whether he bets his entire bank on number 17 in one spin or splits it into 100 pieces and plays one piece at a time on red!

Then there's the issue of the house edge. Some games have a much higher house edge than others, does it really make no difference what game you play, since probability is irrelevant in the short run? obviously not.

That's y we have forums. To get information on how to exploit instabilities in the short run and win.

And probability theory is one way of getting that information. You don't have to use it, but it's there to be used, and it can often suggest different lines of attack.

The problem is that guys like Real encourage the view that math and probability is just a stick with which to beat system players over the head with. "The math says you can't win". So end of story. It is so much more than that. It's also worth pointing out that the definition of probability as a "long run relative frequency" is just one interpretation, which is not always useful. See the Wikipedia article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretationsIt's true that the mathematical rules or laws of probability are the same in all interpretations, but these rules have more to do with logic than math; they are just a way of keeping you from contradicting yourself when reasoning with probabilities.