Author Topic: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?  (Read 3544 times)

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UnlikelySam

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2019, 11:27:10 AM »
Third not quite sure if you have seen this before. Attached is something courtesy of the great Wizard of odds...   ;)

*** At times even with Red Black take this for example RRRB ; when there is a change after a 2 or 3 series etc the run before the change hits again sometimes. So RRRB and we go for R to hit once more ; same with P and B in Baccarat... Just my 2 cents of the trends I noticed   :)
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 11:33:50 AM by UnlikelySam »
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2019, 02:07:08 PM »
As I am playing more and more, I am noticing various patterns repeat themselves.  I think the key is to track them all and bet the ones that are happening the most?  I have seen the one you just mentioned.  This is why I started this thread, to track what patterns are happening and are being bet. :D

BPPPP
The warm up.  A clear call for PLAYER with only 3-Back being undecided.

BPPPB
We lose.  The overall trend remains the same but the distribution is mixed/undecided.  NO BET.

BPPPBBP
A unified call for PLAYER, the overall trend being the strongest with a solid distribution. Bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPB
We lose.  The strong distribution remains and we now bet against the overall trend; bet BANKER.

BPPPBBPBP
We lose.  The overall trend remains PLAYER but the distribution is mixed.  NO BET.

BPPPBBPBPPBB
The overall trend remains PLAYER and the strongest distribution is 2-BACK with all but 1-BACK agreeing on PLAYER; bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBP
We win.  Results are mixed and 1-BACK becomes undecided. NO BET.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBP
1-BACK again is the dissenter but the overall trend and the rest of the distribution agrees to BET PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPB
We lose.  The results are fully split between the overall trend/1-BACK and 2-BACK/3-BACK.  NO BET.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPP
Here we bet against the overall trend with all distributions agreeing to bet BANKER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPPB
We win.  Now things have changed with 2-BACK being the only dissenter (but strongest distribution) from the unified call to bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPPBB
We lose.  Now all agrees to bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPPBBB
We lose. 3-BACK has become undecided but the overall trend and every other distribution agrees to bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPPBBBP
We win. 2-BACK dissents but all else says to bet PLAYER.

BPPPBBPBPPBBPBPBPPBBBPP
We win.  I don't have time to finish this but these wheel results (R/B) continued to devolve which made me decide to leave the table at first recovered profit.

I am trying to understand how this bet selection works...
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 02:54:45 PM by Third »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2019, 04:18:54 PM »
That's alot of warmups ;D  Great stuff... PPPB we head for P we lose as it now is PPPBB we wait and P hits so it's PPPBBP we can now chase for B we win and it's now PPPBBP. Sometimes we miss that trend in the first couple attempts however we can catch it on 2nd or 3rd attempt etc. Maybe just maybe we can capitalize on that particular trend catcher ???  Ok enough about my theories for now... Onwards Third as you were mate 8)
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2019, 05:58:47 PM »
LOL.  No you are helping tremendously. :D

What I aim for is when not only one trend but THREE/FOUR point to the same result. ;)

I think examining the B/P readout (recent results) is NOT the way to go because very soon after starting, its not so much about B or P but the collection of ALL the B/P's for the entire observed sequence! :D

What this bet selection boils down to is an almalgamation of 4-hand-sequence analyses, performed constantly over the entire observed result history.  Eventually each new set of 4 spins doesn't dictate directly the forecasted result but only becomes part of the overall forecasted trends.

The thing is that the 4-hand-analysis blocks don't go PPPB PPBB but instead:

PPPB
PPBP
PBPP
BPPB
PPBB

So, a running 4-hand analysis summary. :D

Oh my! I just now thought of a new trend to analyze called CONFORMITY.  Every forecasted hit is +1 to CONFORMITY and every miss is -1.  If the shoe is performing the opposite of the dominant trends, then it makes more sense to bet AGAINST the forecast!

O_o
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 06:29:00 PM by Third »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2019, 07:02:45 PM »
Aaaah similar to a pattern breaker method. In all honesty I was kinda heading down that road too after my previous post. PBPP last 4 results bet for at least 1 repeat in that sequence BPP(Win) on 3rd attempt. Betting for or against as you said will be determined by opposing of the dominance; personally I like going with the trend but just gotta make sure I don't forget my surfboard :P

Maybe even apply virtual losses first and then let the hunt begin?
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 07:04:58 PM by UnlikelySam »
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2019, 07:12:31 PM »
Well I monitor 4 (now maybe 5!?) trends at once and I only bet if at least 3 agree on the same result, otherwise I don't bet.  So it ends up that I don't play every hand and that's kind of good enough for me.  I would look for a stronger bet selection before I would even think of performing any virtual bets.

One thing that I do use however, is minimum betting.  If things are going really bad, I will minimum bet until I get a higher probability bet; like for example, I could wait for only all 4 trends to synch up on the result before I bet the full amount and until then I minimum bet.

@Sputnik: Have you heard that there is a new "5D" out there instead of the 4D (NOR)?  I wonder if that 5th line is CONFORMITY?
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 07:23:44 PM by Third »
 

UnlikelySam

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2019, 07:42:59 PM »
Ok Third I'm with you. I been following Sputniks March for some time with regards to EC. In terms of Baccarat have you managed to implement it successfully? There is no need to elaborate any further than necessary if it will divulge your actual bet selection...
 

Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2019, 08:14:23 PM »
Well I am still testing but so far I have come about halfway to doubling my bankroll of 200 units.  I am not testing it full time, just when I have spare moments.  Also, I have switched to roulette R/B instead of baccarat P/B because my casino doesn't allow free hands and every time Banker hits (while betting both P/B), we lose the commission.  With R/B I only lose .10 of a unit and only when the 0 hits.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 08:17:10 PM by Third »
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2019, 01:49:13 AM »
Ok, so I have doubled my initial 200 unit bankroll.  According to my still prevailing theory, only 100 units is actually required to play (table bank) and so 200 units of earning is even stronger.  My largest bet was 7 units with a drawdown of 49 units.  I never had a losing session; in the worst cases, I would get at least profit and quit.

I don't feel totally secure just yet.  If I double my bankroll again, I will have a pretty high degree of confidence.

Here is a recent game that I wanted to share:



We can see that Banker and 1-Back CHOP ran extremely heavy along with the fact that Player never had a streak longer than two, making this shoe extremely easy to play, for 10 units of profit.

The above game behaved 100% according to expectation but it doesn't always go that way; when things get ugly and its a struggle, I will leave at any profit.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 02:03:42 AM by Third »
 
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Trilobite

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2019, 02:42:57 AM »
So once you got started you just bet banker continually all the way through this shoe?

My way of tracking this shoe would have resulted in 0 bets on player and 32 bets on banker, which commenced with a bet on the 5th banker. Only missed two bankers with a 'no bet' pause on the back of the 2 double player hits.

My profit = 13 units. As you say, a very easy shoe to play.
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #25 on: April 25, 2019, 03:47:50 AM »
I bet:

10N
BPBPBPBBPB
2N
BP
2N
B
2N
BBPB
N
B
2N
BP

For 10 units profit.  The major trends were both Banker and 1-Back CHOP so it allowed for betting on both sides, at times.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 03:56:33 AM by Third »
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2019, 12:22:45 PM »
Wow, I just dropped 100 units for the first time.  So I have gone from 200 units profit down to 100.  I was playing along and was up about 5 units when the bottom suddenly dropped completely out until I hit a 10 unit bet.  Then I had some chop wins and ended up losing it.  I simply didn't get a point where I was able to even think about exiting "comfortably".  So now its time to see how recovery goes...
 
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Trilobite

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2019, 09:26:39 PM »
Third, that's bad news.

Can you post the shoe?
 

Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #28 on: April 25, 2019, 10:00:38 PM »
Well, I have changed software to include all roulette EC bets and unfortunately, I did not yet put in an output file function and thus have no shoe, I am sorry. :'(

I don't think the loss is bad news, as long as recovery is possible.  I am checking into that with simulation, now.  Of course I am also playing to recover and am already half way there. ;)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2019, 10:02:27 PM by Third »
 
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Third

Re: What Is The Next Bet (P, B, N)?
« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2019, 11:10:22 PM »
The win rate is 99.09%, which is 1:109 coup attempts.  The chances of getting hit with another loss while in recovery is .046.  The maximum expected drawdown prior to achieving 100 units of recovery is 1000 units (i.e. 900 units of debt).

« Last Edit: April 26, 2019, 12:03:49 AM by Third »