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Author Topic: 112 bets, covering 224 spins  (Read 13554 times)

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random

Re: 112 bets, covering 224 spins
« Reply #30 on: May 26, 2015, 09:34:48 PM »
I think Kav is right, Random. We should be wary of simplistic Expectations.
If it were correct that a series of 10 appears 85% of the time in a series of 200 spins then a profit could be made by parlaying 9 consecutive spins in 100 series of 200 spins.
85 times a profit of ( at least ) 55 = 4675
15 times a loss of 200                  =3000
Or have I got it wrong ?

I do not get your calculations.
 What i said is a confidence interval.
Let me be more specific:
runprobability%
0-3
0,002
0,2
4
0,042
4,2
5
0,166
16,6
6
0,248
24,8
7
0,219
21,9
8
0,146
14,6
9
0,084
8,4
10
0,045
4,5
11
0,024
2,4
12
0,012
1,2
>12
0,012
1,2

the above values are for a run of one side only.

please note that 85% cover from 6 to 10, being 6 the lowest expectation and 10 the maximum.
cheers
« Last Edit: May 26, 2015, 09:38:34 PM by random »
 

scepticus

Re: 112 bets, covering 224 spins
« Reply #31 on: May 26, 2015, 10:13:08 PM »
I had presumed that you meant that in 85% of series of 200 spins a run of 10 consecutive Red or B|ack would occur.
Was I wrong ?
 

random

Re: 112 bets, covering 224 spins
« Reply #32 on: May 26, 2015, 10:29:59 PM »
I had presumed that you meant that in 85% of series of 200 spins a run of 10 consecutive Red or B|ack would occur.
Was I wrong ?
Sorry if i was misleading. minimum 6 and 10 tops. That is what happens in 85% 200spins sessions.
 

scepticus

Re: 112 bets, covering 224 spins
« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2015, 12:42:10 AM »
Which poses the obvious question -have you any data on 10 in a row streaks  ?.
 I am  interested in ideas for playing roulette so was intrigued with your post. I had kept a card I had used at the weekend when playing roulette in a casino. I am a Hit and Run player and had won my target . When I do this I stop playing at the tables and try out ideas at the screens  for 25p ( UK ) stakes . I played an Airwheel and had 84 numbers on my card. I have long felt that streaks begin with 2 of the same so I  checked your theory using my
numbers. After a colour had hit  twice in a row I started parlaying the next four spins to be the SAME colour. ( Your six in a row )  1 point initial bet parlayed for 4 spins if successful yields a 15 / 1 profit.
You might be interested to know that betting 16 x 1 points it had 2 wins for a 16 point profit.
It had one 5 in a row. One 8 in a row and One 11 in a row.
A one off scenario certainly  but you may find the idea useful.
 

Jesper

Re: 112 bets, covering 224 spins
« Reply #34 on: May 27, 2015, 05:34:42 AM »
The probabillity of losing a session is in many methods smaller than winning, sometimes much smaller. The backside is the losing when it comes will strike hard. This goes for negative progressions mostly.

With a bold progression on a win, the run can be shorter. The run is enough wins i a row, not only a run of colors. We can choise any selections.

If we use a martingale we risk a chip every trail, if Grand Martingale a chip a spin.

It is easy to compute the effect of zero, it is very large when using a positive progression. The turn over of the bankroll  is large. I use to check the statistic and it is common to see
876 spins  net 123  sum of bets  2346.

The zero has effect on your play even if it NEVER shows, just being at the Wheel changing 18/18 to 18/19.

The method is therefore best suitable online with a NOZ Wheel. It is to slow too, for BM, and  there
are allways at least one zero.

We may have a very large run which can recover a large downdrown after 1000 spins.
1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 is eleven  steps which eventually use to kill the Martingaler, but saves
the game if it is used in positive progression.

1 3 7 15 31 63 127 255 511 1023 is one importent step less.

We need a casino allowing us to bet from 1 to a few 1000 chips on a EC, and for most bankrolls the mimibet have to be low.

I allways progress until catch up, even if a long run is needed. Sometimes I place the last bet just to reach the new high, and if  loss, it is closer next trials.

1000 is the minimum bankroll, I use  2000 or more, and  2000 it is 100 Euro at 0.05.
I do not remember a bust.
It is very slow, and I use to play it just sometimes. We can sometimes go for 1000 spins and have just a few cents profit.

Another counter from the casinos is when using no zero Wheel is limit maxbet. They can limit session time. On NOZ we pay 10% of net win a session. If we do not reach profit in time and are timeouted before on plus, next session will be taxed 10% of ITS OWN net, which can be a lot more than 10% of totan net win.  Sometimes we can be forced to start over because "Connection error".

If we try with very small bankroll, say 10 Euro, we should use a 1 cent table despite the zero, as the number of chips is critical. 1000 works much better than 100.