Author Topic: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.  (Read 5066 times)

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MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #60 on: March 12, 2019, 09:27:51 PM »
Stratege, yet another long winded sermon. I did mention that I am not buying crazy, not today or any time soon.
Sorry I stood you up on the date you arranged for us. I think to appease other forum members we should move our lovers quarrels to private messaging.  :-*  You remain as condescending as ever!

BUT... in this post I will address the D'Alembert concern you raised, but only to a point.

Your question reads as follows: How do you justify using variations of the d'Alembert, since I mathematically demonstrated that it was losing money on a winning method ?
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Firstly, direct me to your mathematical demonstration and confirm the use of a "winning method" that it is in fact a winning method without the need for a progression, D'Alembert variant specially.

I presume you are aware that the D'Alembert progression has variants like the reverse D'Alembert progression. I also presume that you are aware that write ups on the D'Alembert progression are presented with EC bets for simply explanatory purposes. I do not play EC bets at all nor do I play straight mechanical systems where the shortcoming of this and any other type of progression will end in failure in the long run. I have modified the D'Alembert progression to suit some of my methods and when I do use progressions they are strictly applied and controlled. To go into further detail I would have to reveal at least one of my methods to illustrate the strength of a modified D'Alembert progression that I use and I am not on the sharing wagon as you well know.

I play from the wheel and not the betting felt. I play strategies and methods as opposed to systems. I evaluate the play from each day spent at the casino and I do not consider myself a gambler. I go to a casino and as soon as I reach my target gain or loss, I leave. There have been days that I have gone to the casino and spent 8-10 hours at the roulette tables playing only on paper as I test a new method (this is after I have tested it extensively using spin history from the net). The last phase of my testing is at least one full day at a B/M table without any cash bets placed. If I was a gambler I would not be able to resist the temptation of placing cash bets.

The percentages I talk about are related to target goals I set myself and is an approximation on what I require from each session played. Winning the exact number of chips required per session rarely happens. More often than not there is an excess "win" and these excess wins are used to tame or nullify the occasional loss I experience.

I am not in possession of a Holy Grail System that wins every single bout. If I made such a claim then Scepticus would be right in calling me a liar. I do LOSE like every other player but my methods cater for such eventualities.
 
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Stratege

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2019, 07:29:13 PM »
RINAD wants a comparison between progression and flat betting, the rise of Alembert is the simplest to make calculations because we know that this progression wins 1/2 unit per spin played.Imagine a method that earns 1% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins (or 10 000 spins) there are 100 units won that allow you to double your capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,900 spins (10,000 - 100), 1/2 piece per spins played, or 4950 units + 100 units won thanks to this 1% advantage. That is a gain of 5,050 units. There is equality of benefits between the d'Alembert and flat betting ! [font=]Now imagine a method that wins 2% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins there are 200 units gained which allow to triple its capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,800, 1/2 piece by spins played, 4,900 + 200 units won thanks to this 2% advantage. The intuitions on the progressions are here not so good because the d'Alembert is very far from having tripled its capital !!! [/font][font=]The conclusion (with these figures) also suggests that a progression can beat the flat bet with a 0% method but it is hypothetical in practice because of the variance that requires a huge capital. But in theory, where the flat bet pays nothing, the d'Alembert or another progression can do better. [/font][font=]A progression does not show in the examples that its main quality is to make more profit. At best, it allows you to withdraw earnings more often from your method. It should be added that a method with a positive expectation[/font][font=]has two qualities: to fight against variance with the least possible number of units and to make profit in flat bet. Add to that a complex progression is often complicated. But that does not prevent him from doing his theoretical research [/font]
« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 07:33:34 PM by Stratege »
 

Stratege

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #62 on: March 13, 2019, 07:34:29 PM »

MickyP, thanks for your answer. Alas, readers will remain hungry. No private message, all the interest of this discussion is to present it to the members, the readers, without hiding anything! Do you want me to confirm a winning method without the use of a progression? I'm not sure I understood you.

The most important is your argument that to demonstrate your variant of Alembert you must take one of your methods, and that this is indiscreet. Many times, on the forums I heard this kind of answer! In fact, all you have to do is pick numbers from your past or invent them. This does not reveal a method. A succinct demonstration is not a revelation in detail.

I am very familiar with progressions. While they are usually featured on EC, we all know that this applies to all types of bets. I spent years studying progressions, and using one variant or another, eventually you pay the tax in proportion to the sum of chips played. With a winning method, a more advantageous solution isn’t in a variant ... I do not say more, because your speech is very imprecise, without clear meaning. You keep the Opportunity to completely change your message if I explain certain things.

The members on roulette forums spend their time inventing variations on the main progressions. There is no secret to keep on such a subject, because the end result is known in advance! If a variant of the d'Alembert brought an advantage, long ago that in my simulations I would have found this phenomenon that would exist in a variant but not in the classic progression. Admit that the opposite case would be strange. Simply changing differently would cause another result ?

I give you a simplified example of EC. Selection at 10% profit, bankroll 30 units. After 100 spins played +10, 33% of the bankroll. Strict application of the Alembert for this selection: 465 units (1 + 2 + 3 ...+ 29 + 30), after 100 spins played +55 (1/2 chip per spin), or 11, 8% of the bankroll. The difference between the two types of play is 21 points (33 - 11,8). The d'Alembert is naturally a disaster on a winning selection (here at 10%), so your variant remains in the structure of this progression. Otherwise your variant would be exceptional, because it would cancel the "negative" effect of the progression of Alembert and then bring a greater advantage than the flat bet! MickyP, you are as usual exceptional, your speech belongs to another world! But don’t say that your variation is only a few spins, or chips, out of 100 played. Then add the sum of the spins played with your variant to have the equivalent of the classic d'Alembert. You will find the same disaster.

As you read, I understand more and more that you don't have a long experience of roulette, you say things that arn’t based on experience, techniques or experience of winning. That cannot be imagined. The way you speak shows me that you don’t know, your speech did not move anything forward. You may never know, so it's best that I absolve you from any demonstration.

Members will find that "your methods" were "fabricated" with the characteristics cited by your two favorite mentors: 1) you have several methods, 2) you with a winning goal, 3) you use a progression in some cases, 4) your daily bankroll is 200 units (exactly MrPerfect's advice), 5) you play exclusively on the straight up.

Understand, MickyP, you have several methods, you talk about a 6% advantage (this is unclear). But, to underline a detail, to get 6% on Hazard with straight up is to have found methods that earn on average 6% + 5.4% = 11.5%. Find several very unique methods and having so little to say at the technical level is very amazing!

Without learning theories and techniques, many players will have a gaming experience but never a real roulette experience. A forum is also a place where different bell sounds resonate. The inexperienced members and readers are often lost, and a few years later, they still do not know what to think. It's the same with the bad authors on roulette.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 07:44:17 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #63 on: March 13, 2019, 08:52:01 PM »
Progressions do not cause failures.  Improper bet sizing causes failure.  A flexible progression allows for a player to lose less and win more which is the formula for a winning method:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHhtVfeoCdQ
« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 09:35:06 PM by Third »
 

mr j

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #64 on: March 13, 2019, 10:15:11 PM »
If you cant win flat betting, you won't win with your silly negative progression. Real players know this.

Ken
 

Third

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #65 on: March 14, 2019, 03:24:42 AM »


Don't get me wrong, flat betting has its usefulness; it is excellent for soaking up negative variance.

Its basic economics:

Quote
Buy low, sell high

Its also common sense but hey if you like singing other people's mantras, then have at it but you should know that you are simply a tool.


Every number goes through the same cycle as depicted above.  We raise in the green and flat bet the red. 

Certain numbers are better than others even though you don't watch for it.  Your method only looks at numbers in the very short term.  The people whose mantra you are singing don't play that way, so I don't see how singing their mantra makes you feel more secure since you don't follow their method.

You aren't the only person in the world with a successful method.  I think you seriously need to step back and actually realize that.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 03:53:22 AM by Third »
 

MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #66 on: March 14, 2019, 10:13:40 AM »
Stratege (PMS), I see you are still trying to reign me in with yet another dribble infested sermon. You almost guarantee yourself an afterlife in the "halls of the Holy Grail house of Roulette". Beware, it is chip infested.
Refer back to your question in blue text and explain your choice of words regarding a winning system. (......losing money on a winning system.)

You are right, I don't have a long history of the game compared to the history of the game itself.
You see, I am a free standing thinker. I rely on logic and rational thought to identify and and solve problems. Logic and the ability to be rational is not innate in people. It has much to do with IQ. The higher ones IQ the more natural logic and rational thinking appears to be. There is not enough time in an average human life to learn logic and rational thought. You either have it or you don't.
My stumbling across what you call "gap reducer" in the Dozen Drive was not an accident at all in spite of the fact that I did not study the works of a dead mathematician. It came about as a logical remedy to a problem. Rational thought was applied to place all the pieces together.
I don't build scientific models and create scenarios that do not reflect a B/M playable approach. I sketch a scenario for myself, something like: I have 100 units in hand and I want to increase it by 10 units within 15 spins of the wheel.This reflects B/M reality! I will address the inevitable losses that come with the game by looking at as many aspects of a method that will possible lead to a loss. How do I recognize weaknesses and counter them within the method?
Anyway, I'm sure you get the idea.
Your explanation on progression tests do not follow a logical approach, scientific maybe but logical, No.
Think logically about what you want from the game. Chasing the "Holy Grail" is a job for hobby academics who lack functional intelligence. Learning the works of someone else simply qualifies you as a smart parrot. Being able to used acquired knowledge to challenge what is perceived as flawed logic or irrational thought puts you on the road to evolving from your current parrot status to understanding how to use the ability to rationalize your thoughts; on condition that your IQ allows it.
 
 
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MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #67 on: March 14, 2019, 02:25:41 PM »
 
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Stratege

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #68 on: March 14, 2019, 07:26:21 PM »

MickyP, I'm not trying to control you because I'm "absolving you" (I said recently) of your demonstration. The reason is that you can not do this demonstration, so I do not insist. By the way your last message speaks very little about roulette, but it expresses your need for a revaluation of yourself. Be careful, the absence of a technical discussion will end up discouraging your readers.  >:( 

Here is another lack of rationality with your methods. You talked about your "daily gain goal". This scenario is really a bad plan! Your game session is, for example, 4 hours daily. If you win quickly you go home after 1 or 2 hours. But if you do not reach your goal you continue the game and it's 8 hours. Your gambling life does not allow you to plan a dinner with which you want, because you do not control the time factor. Your winning goal is therefore a galley in practice, you can not predict anything. This goal gain is useless (except with a losing method to slow bankruptcy). If you did not understand this evidence, it's because you have never tested "your" methods.

Between your Alembert variant costing you money, and your winning goal that keeps you normally manage your time, you have still the audacity to tell us about your logic and rationality, which are inborn you !

Regarding your question, yes, some players actually lose despite having a winning method or losing financial potential because they are bad technicians! In the heyday of counting blackjack cards, I saw this at the gaming tables and an American author (Canfield) also spoke about this in his book. At roulette the winners are very rare. Some players lose money (financial potential) because they do not have the techniques to amplify a small advantage. And if they want to use a progression, they do not really know how to do it (everyone is not called Third), nor manage stress.

You imagine things about me. I'm not interested in the "Holy Grail" (I used that word once in a topic that talked about the grail, that's it. Understand that studying the theories of others then used to invent with more rigor scientist (without searching for years what has already been discovered) I am the only one on this forum that talks about my personal research (I presented several phenomena and other elements that are not discussed in the books).

I talked about your winning goal but it's like your variant of Alembert, you will not have a logical explanation to give me. I said that "your" methods were calibrated on 5 things said by your mentors. Who is a parrot? the scientist or you? It is useless for me to continue this discussion, you just have imagination, any demonstration is inaccessible for you. Readers understood.  :-\ 
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 07:30:29 PM by Stratege »
 

palestis

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #69 on: March 14, 2019, 07:55:58 PM »
                             Throughout the years of playing here are my conclusions on how to evolve and be profitable in roulette playing.
1.   Construct the system ( either thru hypothetical scenarios that seem to have good hit rate, or systems published here).
2.  Test the system for as long as it takes to master its behavior.
     It's not how many millions of numbers you test that it's important, it is how many situations you test (call them triggers), that prompt the commencing the bets. ( that can be thousands of situations).
If you test long enough you will have a pretty good idea of the range of bets required to get a hit after a trigger.
3.   (Very important). Test long enough to find out what the worst possible scenario can be as well as how often it can happen. (black swans).
4. Make system changes to fit the test results rather than sticking to the initial hypothesis.
5.  Develop your strategy:
     That is progression if needed, virtual bets if you don't want to take the risk of betting the entire range of bets, and money management. (available B/R VS. minimum chip value etc.
6.  Risk control.
     Learn to identify dangers that lead to the black swan and pull out on time. (stick only with the range of bets that tests have proven to produce a hit.  ( Not less  not more).
                     
   Some members might come up with negative comments and all types of objections, but I don't care.
    What I just described works for me just fine and I wouldn't change it for nothing.
( Thanks for your constructive objections, but no thanks).
I am not here to prove superiority of intelligence, I post what works perfectly for me.
Anyone with an average intelligence can win if they follow these steps.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 08:07:07 PM by palestis »
 
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MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #70 on: March 14, 2019, 08:52:00 PM »
PMS, you are losing your condescending stance but it still hangs in the air like a heavy fart that envelopes the messenger, following him around the room. Well done Pastor, well done, I say.

The thread is about growing/evolving as a player so I'll stick to the topic as best I can. I will also reference your dribble where necessary.

You say I parrot my mentors in the five things you have identified as my sails on this roulette ship that I captain. They did assist in upgrading my ship. You state as follows:

"Members will find that "your methods" were "fabricated" with the characteristics cited by your two favorite mentors: 1) you have several methods, 2) you with a winning goal, 3) you use a progression in some cases, 4) your daily bankroll is 200 units (exactly MrPerfect's advice), 5) you play exclusively on the straight up."

1. Correct, I use several methods on a day visit to the casino.
2. Here I take it you say I have a win goal, if so then correct.
3 Correct, I do use progressions where and when necessary.
4. My daily bankroll is 200 units (the value of the units differs through time) This I believe I stated in my first thread on the forum.
5. I only play inside numbers; straight up numbers and splits or a combination of both.

I am not ashamed to say that I have learnt from some members on the forum. The members in question are all seasoned players with real B/M table experience that is more meaningful to me than scientifically researching the game without setting parameters.

Mr J (Ken) has not given me a free ride to unwrapping his understanding and experience of the game; however, I studied his progress on the forum and gathered his "nasty one liners" for a closer look. I then included my findings as parameters in testing old methods as well as new ones. In this way I can say Ken helped me guide my finger out of my butt. I have studied the posts of my other mentors in the same way. Do I mimic any one of them in particular? No, I play my own style and Yes, I do evaluate my play at the end of a day. On an annual basis I am exposed to an estimate of less than 50 000 spins at a B/M table. I have not worked out the played spins but I would imagine it to be about half (25 000). Funny thing about roulette is that through all the different moments it is a fairly constant game and you can almost read the mood at any given time.

My time is my own and if I make an appointment with anyone I always keep it. I am never late because I always give myself time to deal with the unforeseen like our daily protest actions...lol. Roulette is not my life, it is simply a source of income for me and I work at my own pace. My monthly goal is attainable in less than half the time I have allocated to the task.

Third plays online roulette but he has an understanding of the use of progressions. I just think his transition to B/M table play will prove more difficult than he may believe.
Most players will include a progression as a standard feature in a method that is only reset on a new bankroll high and this can be dangerous unless you have a large bankroll and high table limits. It is not always doom and gloom but simply repeating the steps of a progression as a game rule is in many cases like playing on the side of the house. With much practice the ability to read table trends becomes easier and with this "skill" selectively using a progression becomes a practical and rewarding "attack" in a game.

See you around Pastor.
 
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MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #71 on: March 14, 2019, 09:01:22 PM »
As I was writing my post above one of my mentors (Palestis) posted his views on evolving as a player and his advice is sound, it's solid but it's not a handout as hard work is required. It's a map with directions to a hidden treasure that many will be able to benefit from.
 
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palestis

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #72 on: March 14, 2019, 11:05:52 PM »
Hard work is required indeed.
Most of it for testing of thousands of situations (triggers), to get an average percentage of successful hits, within a range of bets than you financially can afford to wager. Most likely with increasing progression.
If that range is too wide for the number of numbers you bet, then the system is unstable and should be rejected. It cannot be trusted.
What you want is a narrow range of bets that succeeds to get a hit, and it has to happen by an overwhelming percentage.
When it doesn't happen,  you have to have an idea how far the number of bets can go before they reach the black swan.
And you have to make sure that this only happens very rarely.
All that translates to hard work testing and drawing conclusions.
By doing your homework, you may find that beating roulette is easy after all.

 
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MickyP

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #73 on: March 15, 2019, 11:55:37 AM »
https://youtu.be/rPv3CD8RZ0Q

Here is a video that can be used to slot yourself into the roulette marketplace.
PMS tells me I should be concerned about what others may think of me through the content of my posts. Whatever side of the scale those opinions fall on does not affect my time at a roulette table so I am not concerned by worldly opinions.

I do not look for ways to change the House Edge because it can not be changed but that does not mean you can not profit from roulette. It just requires a focused approach to show above average gains from a game with a constant advantage over the player.

The video links I post are there to challenge you the player to weigh and measure your mindset so you give yourself room to think freely about your own shortcomings and it also allows you to affirm your own strengths as well. A solid approach to roulette separates the men from the boys

I know I am helping some players even if it is in ways that does not include spoon feeding systems to the gullible. I know as a liberal despising, Trump loving person I have placed myself in front of the firing squad. I can handle a degree of dribble and being peppered with jelly tots and the like from snowflakes. Shake off the emotions and step into reality, the real game awaits you there.

The best thing any newbie can do is to identify a few seasoned players on the forum and learn from their contributions. Engage in discussions with them and use the knowledge and advise you receive to create your own approach to the game.
 
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Third

Re: Growing/Evolving as a Roulette Player.
« Reply #74 on: March 15, 2019, 05:18:20 PM »
Third plays online roulette but he has an understanding of the use of progressions. I just think his transition to B/M table play will prove more difficult than he may believe.

This wisdom rings in my head as true long after it has been posted and even beyond a full night's sleep.  Everyone should understand this about all my posts.

I am going to call myself a "RNG specialist". :D
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 05:20:40 PM by Third »
 
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