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Author Topic: The Monty Hall Problem  (Read 1800 times)

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mr j

The Monty Hall Problem
« on: February 18, 2019, 02:35:02 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0 << Always interesting. So in the long run, its better to switch doors(?) My biggest issue with this has always been the human interaction element. Monty already KNOWS.
What if this was all RNG related (no people)? Still switch doors?

Ken
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2019, 11:55:59 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0 << Always interesting. So in the long run, its better to switch doors(?) My biggest issue with this has always been the human interaction element. Monty already KNOWS.
What if this was all RNG related (no people)? Still switch doors?

Ken
Yes , ken , switch .  It is only maths at play . At the outset you have 2 against you so after the " outing " of one of the three you still have to guess . Better to go with the original FACT that there was 2 choices against your original pick . Still a guess though .
 

mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2019, 04:25:20 PM »
Ok but take out the human element (Monty). Lets say its all RNG. Still switch?
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2019, 04:42:55 PM »
Yes , Monty NEEDS to know where the prize is so that he can keep the tension up  . Have  you listened to the LOUD audience reaction when he opens the box ?    He winds them up  !
It  is a PROBABIITY question ken . Just maths  !
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 04:44:48 PM by scepticus »
 

mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2019, 05:27:36 PM »
(lol) I already know the correct answer. Just wanted to see how "you people" would respond.
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2019, 05:42:57 PM »
Ken
Some of "  You people " are not as dumb as you seem to think !
 
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juice

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2019, 05:48:03 PM »
Ken, let's make it easier to understand.
Let's say that you have 50 doors.
You have got to ask yourself, " what are the chances that I picked the correct door on the first shot ?".
It becomes a lot easier to grasp the concept when you see it in the situation of large numbers / choices.
My everyday winning method was derived partially from this paradox.
Many, many years ago I was trying to wrap my head around it.
The paradox, in my case, is not applied to the actual outcome, because in a game of 50 / 50 chance, you have no "control" of the result. However, if you can create an equation, that originates around mathematics and distribution, and other variable that I will not go into, then the Monty Hall paradox can be applied nicely.
To a player of your conviction, it is pointless to go any further into the application, completely due to the fact that you, personally, don't believe roulette can be profitable in any other way than the way you have figured it out. ( and I respect that ).
What I will say is that, if I personally have any kind of advanced notice into my limited mortality, I would contact you specifically and give to you my method of play, simply because you have claimed to have searched every angle of the game and have found, " no other way to win " , except playing few straight ups and a couple of splits. ( I know it is more complex than this in as far as which numbers to bet on ).  But this is not the only way.

I know, through reading your comments, here and on other forums, that once you understood my method, that you would be a big enough person to publicly admit that you were mistaken in your core beliefs.
I am a tad older than you are but not by much, so I am hoping that this never happens, cause I want to live a long and happy life playing just the way I do. 

 
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mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2019, 05:48:24 PM »
@scept >> no no no no, trust me son,,,,,,its me HERE and the rest are "you people". All I have to do is read your posts. Dead give away. You're only a decade behind schedule.
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2019, 05:50:29 PM »
@scept >> no no no no, trust me son,,,,,,its me HERE and the rest are "you people". All I have to do is read your posts. Dead give away. You're only a decade behind schedule.
;D
 

mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2019, 05:51:36 PM »
"winning method was derived partially from this paradox" >> Thats a bit why I posted it. I can see the roulette in this Monty question.

Ken
 

vitorwally

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2019, 06:10:39 PM »
The Monty Hall Problem is a great brain teaser. For the ones who might not know the paradox behind it, have a read:
mathworld[dot]wolfram[dot]com/MontyHallProblem.html

DrTalos has posted good content about it as well.
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,2149.msg31540.html#msg31540
 
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Scarface

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2019, 11:33:31 PM »
Here's an idea, that somewhat relates.  Think about it, an equal distribution of numbers is a rare occurrence when it comes to random.  So, when playing dozens, there will usually be 1 dozen that is fairly cold, hitting below expectation.  So, choose one of the other two.

Will this work 100% of the time?  Of course not.  There is always the possibility that hot numbers become cold as soon as you play them.  This is why you have to be fluid with your bets...change bet selection if something isn't working.  I mean really, what are the odds that every single time you play hot numbers they suddenly turn cold.  It may happen sometimes, but more often than not they will continue to hit.  At the very least, this strategy seems to reduce variance enough that you can overcome losses with good money management
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 11:39:27 PM by Scarface »
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2019, 12:09:19 AM »
That idea has been mooted in the forum before Scarface - as have some others  !  There ia a sying  " there is nothing new in the world "" ;D
It wasn't taken very far as i recall .

Changing as things change  ?  Is that not making it up as you go along  ? As you say things change .
I think it best to stay loyal to a profitable method . Even if it produces little profit . As Micky P has pointed out small profits addd up  !
 

mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2019, 01:02:55 AM »
"There is always the possibility that hot numbers become cold as soon as you play them" >> True and the average loon does not know WHEN or WHAT to switch to. Good.

Ken
 

MickyP

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2019, 01:44:46 AM »
That idea has been mooted in the forum before Scarface - as have some others  !  There ia a sying  " there is nothing new in the world "" ;D
It wasn't taken very far as i recall .

Changing as things change  ?  Is that not making it up as you go along  ? As you say things change .
I think it best to stay loyal to a profitable method . Even if it produces little profit . As Micky P has pointed out small profits addd up  !

Septic, Please do not use my name in an attempt to lead others in believing that we share common ground on issues because we don't. Small profits add up means something very different to me as it does to you. If you recall you disagreed with me on this very issue.
 
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