Author Topic: The Monty Hall Problem  (Read 850 times)

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Scarface

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2019, 10:40:14 PM »
Changing as things change  ?  Is that not making it up as you go along  ? As you say things change .

No, I play the most recent repeaters, and stick to only 3 or 4 numbers.  If you run tests, you will see that it takes about 100 spins for all numbers to show.  The coldest will show for only 1 time, while the hottest will repeat around 9 or 10 times. 

If my bet selection doesn't produce a hit in 36 units played, I change my bet selection.  So, if no hit playing 3 numbers in 12 spins, pick another 3 numbers.  In my case, I always pick the most recent repeats.
 

scepticus

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2019, 11:26:14 PM »
scarface

" If my bet selection doesn't produce a hit in 36 units played, I change my bet selection.  So, if no hit playing 3 numbers in 12 spins, pick another 3 numbers.  In my case, I always pick the most recent repeats.  "

but isn't " changing  things as they go along " not making it up as you go along  ? If it doesn't change you don't change ?  If it changes you change ? You simply cannot tell when it will change -or when it won't .

Incidentally, I don't agree it takes about 100 spins for all numbers to show . Sometimes a number won't show for many more spins than100 .
 

mr j

Re: The Monty Hall Problem
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2019, 11:37:57 PM »
200-400 spins on the heavy end.