Author Topic: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?  (Read 2575 times)

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GIAJJENNO

How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« on: February 16, 2019, 12:54:41 AM »
I am curious how somebody overcome, and control the randomness of the roulette, or the negative variance.
See ecample the simpelest EC bets. (but we can see any other bet selection)

BR.

How would you control to not going too down in bankroll? How would you bet against randomness, how to win against EC randomness?
 
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Third

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2019, 12:58:21 AM »
I would be looking at all 6 EC's.  I would be betting the EC that has the largest disparity and I would bet the hot side.  I would probably use a 4 step marty, 1-2-4-8.

Eventually I will miss because the cold side will dominate for much longer than expectation.  At that point I need to surf by changing my bet sizes between min bet and press.  I would probably press after any hit following a gap of 4 or more, otherwise I would min bet.

My min bets will probably be a 6 divisor and my presses will be from 1-5 divisor, depending on the debt size and my confidence level.  I would also probably follow a "press as you win" method where I would allow the divisor to drop by one with each hit in a row.

I end all presses in either 4 bets (4 gapper) or 2 bets (press as you win), depending on the situation.


As you can see, it took almost 120 spins to break a 4-step marty on a dominant EC.  I would say this method would require at least 1000 units, as played.

I really dislike EC's because they only pay the minimum amount.  Because of this, my 4-bet press is probably ill advised and would have to be abandoned for the 2 bet press in all situations.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 01:47:42 AM by Third »
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2019, 02:02:09 AM »
Thanks.

On the picture I see very quick drawdonwns, I dont like agrressive playing way, I like play safely, firstly flatbet, than using 2 units flatbet but on EC never big progreession like Marty, or semi-Marty.

But on the other way, overcoming on ECs...how? When we see BRRBRRRRBBRBBRBBRRRBBBRBRBRRBBR Sewuences there are zigzags, two in rows, three, four in rows in one colour, than other color.

When to switch in the right time? How to know when to smitch and how long?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:04:35 AM by GIAJJENNO »
 

Third

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2019, 02:07:22 AM »
Ok, so you would approach it with a 2-step or 3-step marty.  The important part is the recovery but how you approach is also important because it affects the shape of your recoveries.  I chose a 4-step marty because its 2x expectation.  Maybe the EC pays so little that one can't afford to do a 4-step. :shrug:

I simply bet the most dominant long-term EC and don't switch until another EC becomes the dominant one.

Here we have 15B and 16R, so an equal distribution over the last 31 spins.  I would bet the EC that was most dominant from the entire session.  If this is the entire session, then I would be betting a better EC with greater disparity.

I win my presses in 2 bets, otherwise I min bet.  We have to focus on particular events and bet against (for) them with a higher bet amount.

Let's say we did min bet FTL, press after missing at least twice in a row.  We have the following W/L:

BRRBRRRR
XLWLLWWW

BBRBB
LWLLW

RBB
LLW

RRRBBBRBR
LWWLWWLLL

BRRB
LLWL

BR
WL
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:18:35 AM by Third »
 

leowls

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2019, 02:07:49 AM »
I used the double DZ progression by Talos and use it on EC. Works ok but it's a grind. Good to use for recovery. The idea is to have a long and slow progression that can outlast or outlive the negative variance.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:10:58 AM by leowls »
 
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Third

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #5 on: February 16, 2019, 02:26:56 AM »
Ok, I try to keep it simple for you. Let say we play a dozen (12 numbers) with 1 unit.
We miss.
We play once more a dozen, with 1 unit.
We miss.
We play on our third spin a dozen, with two units.
We miss. Our bankroll is -4 now.
We play a dozen with 3 units.
We miss. -7.
We play a dozen with 4 units. We hit. We win 1 unit. We plaid 60 numbers totally and we get just a single hit, but we won. That's amazing...

What I achieved is a way to endure a lot of spins (can happen that I take my first hit after playing more than 200 numbers (or, as you say it, a wheel with 36 numbers and 164 zeros...) to chase that average, that as you say is at the limit of statistics.

Thank you for sharing your OPINION.
Next.

60/18=3.34, so you are playing a 4-step marty, huh?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:28:40 AM by Third »
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2019, 02:32:34 AM »
Not a Marty, but flatbet. With 1 unit, example at -5 I switch to 2 units, and based on drawdowns, I switch unit size, but alwaxs flat bet.

The main questions are to get higher wins than lost. Thanks for opinions.
 

leowls

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2019, 06:16:59 AM »

Ok, I try to keep it simple for you. Let say we play a dozen (12 numbers) with 1 unit.
We miss.
We play once more a dozen, with 1 unit.
We miss.
We play on our third spin a dozen, with two units.
We miss. Our bankroll is -4 now.
We play a dozen with 3 units.
We miss. -7.
We play a dozen with 4 units. We hit. We win 1 unit. We plaid 60 numbers totally and we get just a single hit, but we won. That's amazing...

What I achieved is a way to endure a lot of spins (can happen that I take my first hit after playing more than 200 numbers (or, as you say it, a wheel with 36 numbers and 164 zeros...) to chase that average, that as you say is at the limit of statistics.

Thank you for sharing your OPINION.
Next.


60/18=3.34, so you are playing a 4-step marty, huh?


Not a marty style progression but an increment of 0.5 for every bet won...

(click the link below to see how this is played)
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,2149.30.html

Instead of raising 1 i change it to 0.5 to prolong the progression and i apply it to EC instead of betting 2 dozens to prolong the progression life even further.

1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
.
.
.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 06:21:00 AM by leowls »
 
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Third

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2019, 09:26:19 AM »
You know, your post made me search to figure out what progression I actually use in my games.  Talos has said that the bets should be kept as low as possible but that the progression is neither too timid nor too aggressive.  This implies that there is a certain balance that must be maintained.

Here is a brutal session with the following W/L registry:

LWLLWLWWWWWW

This is LOSS CHOP which turned into a DOUBLE LOSS and followed immediately with more chop, which is 4 losses and only 2 wins.

Here is a graphical depiction of the bank balance, the worst debt was 993 units which is less than 1/3 of the table bank:



Here is the actual progression:

(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)
(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)
(3)(3)(3)
(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)
(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)
(4)(4)(4)
(5)
(3)(3)(3)(3)(3)
(4)(4)(4)(4)(4)(4)
(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)
(6)(6)(6)
(4)
(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)
(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)
(7)
(6)(6)
(7)(7)(7)
(5)(5)(5)
(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)
(7)(7)(7)(7)(7)
[8][8][8]
(4)(4)
(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)(5)
(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)(6)
[8]
(9)(9)(9)
(10)(10)
(11)(11)
(12)(12)
(13)
(6)
(7)(7)(7)(7)(7)
[8]
(9)
(10)

I could have been more timid in my approach instead of fighting to close the session and I have played that way successfully but the problem is that I end up playing sessions over 1000 spins long, taking about 2 hours just to close out a game for a small number of units profit.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 09:51:22 AM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #9 on: February 16, 2019, 12:18:26 PM »
I am curious how somebody overcome, and control the randomness of the roulette, or the negative variance.
See ecample the simpelest EC bets. (but we can see any other bet selection)

BR.

How would you control to not going too down in bankroll? How would you bet against randomness, how to win against EC randomness?
Hi Gia
No one can control the randomness of the winning numbers . Where there is uncertainty - uncertainty rules  and certainty is the illusion .
The best we can do is make an educated guess . Anyone who thinks differently  doesn't understand the problem  !
 

petespin

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2019, 01:00:57 PM »
Pure randomness is predictable , run on circles and bring same or even r outcomes again and again , about roulette there are 37 possible outcomes at every spin , no countless , Kino has 80 possible outcomes though much more complex than roulette , btw a lot of sequences u 've experienced could be cheating by the human factor ...no pure randomness.
 
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scepticus

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #11 on: February 16, 2019, 02:05:14 PM »
Wrong, Pete.
If randomness was predictable then there would be no casinos .  Predictable as predicting with certainty.
In 2 spins of the wheel there are 37 x 37 -1369 equally likely  outcomes  . In 4 spns there 1369 x 1369 and you can predict the outcomes  ?

If you understood roulette you would be aware that sequences MUST happen. The problem - which you have claimed to solve - is determinig WHEN they will occur .
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 02:08:55 PM by scepticus »
 

petespin

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #12 on: February 16, 2019, 02:30:25 PM »
The ball will land in one pocket out of 37 , now if u mean all the possible numbers by wheel distances , this doesn't really matter , there come in physics not maths !
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2019, 03:40:48 PM »
An simole question?

Math can beat physic in roulette or physic beats math?
 

scepticus

Re: How do you overcome on randomness and the negative variance?
« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2019, 03:49:04 PM »
The ball will land in one pocket out of 37  ;D
obviously Pete . but you are claiming to know which one  MUCH more often than it's probability .
Pehaps the LUCKY member who buys your method comes back  here to tell us the results  .

Incidentally, how much are you going to charge this guy ?