Just to let you know, the system do exist.
DrTalos starts his journey in this message board with this sentence.
For many, these words and future ones are already judged. "There's no such thing as a winning system", "Have you ever heard of House Edge?", "HG straight up on the topic title? What a disgrace", ...
For the remaining, posts of encouragement and intellectual challenge on this game that brings us here.
But what if someone really tries to live up to the illusion of an approach providing a good bankroll growth rate?
The only way to achieve that (other than connect all clues and hints of this long thread) is start with the idea that not all that there is to know is already known. I suggest an empirical approach to find a backdoor to crack the game. If you start with the same point of view of others, you will follow paths already fully explored.
Pure math says the HE cannot be beaten? Well, maybe there's another way, a creative one to bypass that rule we don't like.
I've been reading DrTalos posts, posts from other users claiming to have the Holy Grail (sorry, my bad), posts from experienced users that hadn't such claims and posts from people "giving a fight" to previous mentions.
I never closed any door, if we talk about what I read, but it's indeed important to close some doors, even if for brief moments, when we're thinking about our options. There's the only way to INSURE that you go all out in the doors that are left open. It's a pathological fault of mankind, especially men. Attention should be given to a close spectrum of hypothesis. The wider it is, more time it will take you to fulfill your purpose.
Therefore, I enrolled in my own testing and I kept reading. I watched videos, I heard opinions, I eyeballed behaviors.
I've been developing a way of playing for over a year, and lately the breakdown of my results is shifting from a "Hmm, still not good enough" to "I need to double-check these". However, before the results, let me emphasize the main aspects of my playing:
- an hit ratio; @DrTalos
- insurance of my moves in the table; @Rinad
- a money management tool;
- static bet selection and variable bet selection;
- variable sized bets and flat betting;
- having a stop point;
- wagering every spin.
Here arrived, let's proceed with the results. I have two versions derived from the way of playing I ended with. One is more mild, the other is more aggressive. Basically what differs is the number of losing MICRO-sessions I get in a MACRO-session. I had my simulations running for thousands of iterations (before you ask, it did cross the million mark). Results:
- Mild version: average 0.8 units per spin in a long run, less than 10 micro-sessions per 100k iterations, all ending with profit.
- Aggressive version: more or less 1.25 units per spin, over 90% win rate (winning micro-sessions Vs losing micro-sessions). The average profit per spin here is more volatile due to the increase in risk. I can have it reach per example 1.4 units per spin. It depends of the nature of the MICRO-sessions individually and the MACRO-session as a whole.
IMPORTANT: I never lost the starting bankroll units in the more mild approach, and in the more aggressive one it happened ONCE (with the MACRO-session ending in LARGE profit). The cases where I have to stop simulations because they're getting to long establish the norm, e.g., leaving a simulation overnight and get it still running in the morning. To conclude this "important" note, as long as it's insured that the ways and means you use protect you from a rare loss event, what's the deal of the loss event at first place?
Before I end, let me say I'm gonna upload as attachments some graphs. They're named in a way that eases the identification of the conditions. That leads me to the major motivation of creating this topic:
What do you guys have to say about them?
I'm not here to brag on or start a brawl. Although I infrequently post, because I have my duties, I think some of you know I'm not the type of person that promotes that type of environment online. I'm just curious to know what goes trough the mind of users with other involvements after considering my results.
Recalling the first post I started with:
Good work to all, and thank you for keeping this forum so amusing.
