Author Topic: Playing with Quotes and Concepts  (Read 2464 times)

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scepticus

Re: Playing with Quotes and Concepts
« Reply #45 on: April 17, 2019, 08:11:07 PM »
Thank you Dr Talos
my method has not yet " got out of control" .  I would abandon it if it did because it would then be a flawed method.
I bet a  3 /1 shot that- when it wins -pays odds of 7 /2 . I am quite comfortable using it and have been for some time . Sharing it would not benefit me , so I don't .Good luck !
 

DrTalos

Re: Playing with Quotes and Concepts
« Reply #46 on: April 18, 2019, 09:13:34 PM »
Vitorwally, I will try to answer your question the best I can, despite the fact I am not sure what the exact information you are trying to get.

I think a System must be mechanical, and saying so I mean that the possible outcomes of the game are already set before starting a session. This because you should avoid mistakes, intuitions or emotional behavior while at the table. No rooms for "if I had choose this instead of that I would have won" saving the system while losing your money. A common mistake.
  If you are in a situation where you need three hits, is in the parameters of the game what you should play.
  Let's say your parameter is recover as fast as I can, you will play SU numbers or splits; if you plan to recover slowly but steady, you will cover more numbers.

My personal opinion is you need to find the best bet for the money you put on the felt. A good coverage with no so much units. That is the reason why I say a dozen is different that 4 streets.

 
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vitorwally

Re: Playing with Quotes and Concepts
« Reply #47 on: April 19, 2019, 10:17:49 AM »
I appreciate the time you took to reply DrTalos.

Today I’m giving a follow-up to the 144 numbers mini-parachute, the one ending with a debt of 146 units. I’m posting an attachment. It’s possible to see there how we can opt between multiple approaches. It doesn’t correspond to my current method, as my method doesn’t require me to look at an Excel worksheet. However, it does represent a template I’m been respecting the last couple of years when I want to do “bits and pieces” like the one uploaded. Some are short, others are longer (maximum 263 spins).

In addition, I’m leaving a link to the Wolfram Alpha platform once again. It shows, holding the requirements I wrote on the problem presented earlier, the array of options we have. As I’m trying to suggest throughout the topic, a mathematical representation of a problem usually helps an individual to see how extensive the alternatives are. I’m leaving a second attachment labeling the key elements of the system, even though this time it’s a quite simple one.
Link: bit[dot]ly/2GoI7pN
« Last Edit: April 19, 2019, 10:20:29 AM by vitorwally »
 
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Frequency

Re: Playing with Quotes and Concepts
« Reply #48 on: July 06, 2019, 08:49:42 PM »

Your first topic is about coverage. What I mean is that despite the same payout, there are differences in playing one dozen or four streets, or 12 SU. And other differences if played a dozen or one street for 4 spins. The most evident is the numbers of units needed, other differences are there, and those needs to be found.


I can see the difference between playing a dozen or one street for 4 spins. If we for example have 70- units exposure and play 8 u on a dozen and hit our balance is -54. By playing 2 units 4 times on a street and get on hit on of those spins our balance is now -48,-50,-52 or -54. Seems like a small difference, but if we play 1u on one number for 18 spins instead 18u one time on 18 numbers our balance during a hit will be somewhere between -35 to -52 instead of just -52.

I created a simple one number martingale system which goes like this:

18x1x1 -18  -18
18s2x1 -36  -54
18s4x1 -72  -126
18s8x1 -144 -270

Tried it for fun since it can give quite huge profits shortly and it did, gained like 3100 units with 14 failed games (6880-3780). I wonder if this kind of martingale progression could be used more efficiently as some sort of recovery, but i have not found it yet.

« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 09:05:14 PM by Frequency »
 
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Third

Re: Playing with Quotes and Concepts
« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2019, 12:14:15 AM »
That Charles guy on YouTube made the same point about playing inside vs. outside; the payouts are dynamically greater because there are so many chances to win a higher amount than 1:1.

Dr. Talos has shown us that we can recover from losses because the wheel cannot continue to provide less than expected results constantly, with the proviso that we must keep our expenses as low as possible.

Your inside Marty is very interesting.  It is kind of a "recovery March".  The most interesting part is that you played it mechanically and simply won.

How many times a single number can go missing consecutively is dependent upon how long we are betting it at any one stretch.  For 18 bets we have the following:

Base chance to hit in 1 pass: 38.94076538085938
Base chance to hit in 4 passes:  86.05120086669922[1:6.17 coup attempts]

Maximum consecutive full misses expected: 7

1 1920599 0.1200374375
2 267895 .0167434375 1:58.72 coup attempts
3 37400 .0023375 1:426.81 coup attempts
4 5199 .0003249375 1:3076.52 coup attempts
5 719 .0000449375 1:22,252.13 coup attempts
6 111 .0000069375 1:144,143.1 coup attempts
7 15 0.0000009375 1:1,066,666 coup attempts

I think with proper timing, this could work but how well does it recover when you get a hit on bet series 2-4?
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 12:31:15 AM by Third »
 
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