Royal Panda roulette

Author Topic: "Black swan"  (Read 1065 times)

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petespin

"Black swan"
« on: January 17, 2019, 01:12:34 PM »
Have ever experienced with this phenomenon? For those they don't know it , its simply u go and play a system after testing ,and your very first attempt to with real money fails!
 

UnlikelySam

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2019, 02:04:02 PM »
Petespin mate. That merely proves that not everything under test and  simulation goes according to plan under real life scenario. That goes the same for engineering from  experience whats applied  on paper often needs further modifications on site. Moral of story it's back to the drawing board for further mods provided it's not rigged bro😠
« Last Edit: January 17, 2019, 02:30:40 PM by UnlikelySam »
 

petespin

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2019, 02:50:34 PM »
U know if we separate 100 spins sample u  will never find the exact same spins sequence , the combos will be countless but we 'll never meet the exact sequence , only for this reason tests are not enough ,real play game is much more important ,can start by playing the less amount and after u 'll be confident u can rise up your bets.
 

UnlikelySam

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2019, 02:56:49 PM »
100% agreeable. When you put something to practice for the 1st time You will see even Freddy Kruger  giving you a backrub😂 truth is stranger than any fiction...
 
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MickyP

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2019, 05:41:00 PM »
The Black swan also know as the run from hell is a characteristic of roulette and the design/development of a method should include how to deal with this phenomenon. The phenomenon should be recognized and evasive action taken but most allow themselves to be swallowed up by it because they don't believe in the frills that make up a good method.
 
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Greek

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2019, 10:29:09 PM »
At what point does the black swan fly away. Does it ever go away? After years of playing, the black swan would show it's ugly face less and less, to the point where it's no longer an issue. Instead, a goose shows up, you know the one.

Don't get me wrong. I never let my guards down. Just when one may feel comfortable, it may show it's ugly face.

 

mr j

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2019, 10:44:39 PM »
Have ever experienced with this phenomenon? For those they don't know it , its simply u go and play a system after testing ,and your very first attempt to with real money fails!

My very first point/question would have to be,,,,,,,was the testing procedure EXACTLY like the playing conditions? EXACTLY the same? In most cases, they are not and that is where the issues are.  I love testing at C. Casino because they only give you a few seconds to bet, very much the same at a B&M. I never use the REBET button at C. Casino. Its too convenient.

Is there a REBET button on the B&M tables? Nope, so why would I test while using it? If I need to use the bathroom (here at home), I will skip 3 spins EVEN IF I did my business ALREADY!! Why? On average, thats how many spins you'll miss at the casino. I am not surprised when players get different results, home vs. THE ACTUAL THING.
 
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Third

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2019, 04:12:02 AM »
We will never have 100% probability in any of our bets as long as the ball has not yet landed.  The best we can do is maxmimize the probability in our favor as much as possible with all of our bets and minimize our losses as much as possible.  Statistical tests are very important for understanding what is possible, helping us to recognize when we need to retreat and for establishing an adequate bankroll.  I already know going into every session that it can be bad enough to fully exhaust my bankrolls if I let it.  I will let Clint Eastwood handle the rest:



 
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MickyP

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2019, 05:42:38 PM »
Ken called it as it should be in his post above. Testing should replicate real game play.

Many players will qualify a table before they begin play. How do RNG players qualify their entry point into the game? Can they? What difference does it make? Can they skip spins?
I don't know because I don't play RNG (computer based) roulette.
 
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Third

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2019, 09:41:12 PM »
Every RNG session is like switching to a new physical wheel.  In the very beginning of play, I don't have any statistical data collected and so I play for a certain pattern to appear and adjust my bets as the spin output achieves this pattern.  Every RNG session will achieve this pattern in a unique way, with a different assortment of numbers; the same as each physical wheel does.  Both computerized and physical wheels are RNG's and there is no way to distinguish the difference between their output.  There is probably an exception to this rule when dealing with physical bias, as computerized wheels do not have this.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 09:43:27 PM by Third »
 

palestis

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2019, 10:42:33 PM »

Is there a REBET button on the B&M tables? Nope, so why would I test while using it? If I need to use the bathroom (here at home), I will skip 3 spins EVEN IF I did my business ALREADY!! Why? On average, thats how many spins you'll miss at the casino. I am not surprised when players get different results, home vs. THE ACTUAL THING.
Y does the rebet button make a difference in betting conditions as compared to a B+M table?
In computerized betting you press rebet if you want to repeat the previous bet.
In B+M you repeat the bet by placing chips on the same spots as the previous spin.
That is if you have a reason to repeat the bet in both situations.
As far as having to go to the bathroom, you just don't start any bets when the system is telling to start betting, while your body is telling you that you have to run. I assume that you will have some warning before the need to run to the bathroom.
The biggest mistake players make, is to ignore amounts and progression steps when they do testing at home. Because it doesn't cost anything. Where is a real casino they might not be able to continue the progression, or bet the amount required, for fear of losing their B/R.
That is the most common cause of actual playing conditions to differ from testing conditions.

 
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 10:55:12 PM by palestis »
 
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Third

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2019, 11:12:55 PM »
The biggest mistake players make, is to ignore amounts and progression steps when they do testing at home. Because it doesn't cost anything. Where is a real casino they might not be able to continue the progression, or bet the amount required, for fear of losing their B/R.
That is the most common cause of actual playing conditions to differ from testing conditions.

I still am experiencing this to some degree.  This is so true, its chilling.


You need steel balls sometimes.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 11:15:01 PM by Third »
 

MickyP

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2019, 01:31:54 AM »
Testing defines the parameters of a method so I tend not to agree with the fact that players are afraid of progression amounts unless they are playing a poorly tested method or a method with a limiting hit rate.

The frills of a method should prevent a player from losing an entire bankroll with flat betting or progression.
 

mr j

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2019, 03:26:15 AM »
"Y does the rebet button make a difference in betting conditions as compared to a B+M table?
In computerized betting you press rebet if you want to repeat the previous bet.
In B+M you repeat the bet by placing chips on the same spots as the previous spin" >> Are these two the same, YES or NO? If no, then make it the same.
 

Greek

Re: "Black swan"
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2019, 04:20:40 AM »
Muscle memory, placing chips on the table in a live situation, seems simple enough. Online players may say what's the big deal, just place the chips on the same spot. It's not as easy a you may think. What happens when other players place their chips on the numbers you were going to bet and you cannot see it.

If you are not use to playing live, it may cost you your bet. Murphy law shows up an you did not place a bet on one of your numbers and it comes in. The table layout may be altered from what you are use to, like instead of 123 from the bottom up, it's 321.

Other factors include players not giving you a chance to place your bet by reaching over you. You are sitting at the end of the table and cannot reach the low numbers on the opposite side of the table. So you start yelling at the dealer, calling out the numbers you want your chips to be placed, annoying.

Play as though you are playing in real live situations. Visual, mental, and muscle memory goes a long way when combating the psychological warfare of the casinos, drinks, music, almost naked waitresses, lights flashing, to name a few.

The black swan shows up if you don't practice in a real live situation. But then again, the black swan may show it's ugly face for many other reasons, like lack of money management, fatigue, or just plain stupid. Who knows?
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 04:22:52 AM by Greek »
 
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