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Author Topic: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance  (Read 2072 times)

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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #30 on: January 05, 2019, 10:57:27 AM »
Thank you Sputnik for contributing to the Marigny de Grilleau thread with excellent info on his methodology. It will certain help certain B&M players here.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 10:59:42 AM by thomasleor »
 
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Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #31 on: January 05, 2019, 11:02:28 AM »


Thanks, i will follow this topic and share what i know.

Cheers
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #32 on: January 05, 2019, 11:04:34 AM »
It is very significant to me that a progression can be quantified by averaging the amount of all bets placed.  This was a calculation that I needed to know! :D
 
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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #33 on: January 05, 2019, 11:11:26 AM »


I suspect you ran the formulas, posted on this thread, on your own progression methodology and had some nice outcomes. Happy times, that this thread can help  ;)
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 11:38:16 AM by thomasleor »
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #34 on: January 05, 2019, 11:18:12 AM »

Sputnik, thank you for this presentation. Your approach is realistic. This is a possible way to create games between figures. There are others. The most important thing is to make it simple for the game at the table.
Tomasleor's post on HG is still an example with an author who wants to make believe that he
found the solution and others not. He don't know reality at a real roulette table, or it is to sell !
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 11:21:32 AM by Stratege »
 

thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #35 on: January 05, 2019, 11:22:35 AM »
[font=]]Tomasleor's
post on HG is still an example with an author who wants to make believe that he
found the solution and others not.[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]He does not
know reality at a real roulette table, or it is to sell.[/color]
[/font]

Stratege, that was merely MY definition on the roulette HG. I did not say it was the absolute definition on the HG. You have of course your own definition on a roulette HG and I respect that as I have seen your basis of approach towards the roulette.

And no, I do not sell anything at all, nor promote sale of anything like a system or platform. As I have mentioned about my own platforms offered in my own forum so many times before. They are FREEWARE, which means they cost nothing to the members and test pilots applying them for over 4 years now on various online casinos linked to B&M Casino feeds. Perhaps you should consider this before you make any hasty assumptions next time.

In any case this thread is about the Count and we, posting on it, should strive to NOT derail it with internal squabble. There is enough of it on other threads on this forum. Lets keep things as purely Marigny as possible, ok?
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 11:29:05 AM by thomasleor »
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #36 on: January 05, 2019, 11:30:26 AM »
On the forums roulette systems are discussed on the idea the random results are created by a fair RNG. This ia changing. Nowadays online roulette uses very often not a RNG but a database.
A database can create a manipulated random sequence. The number or sector depends on many data subjects.
What you see on internet are mostly illusions.

With database driven roulette all our theories fall in the water.
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #37 on: January 05, 2019, 11:47:19 AM »
Tomasleor, I thought this theorization came from a reference author. Sorry. If you know the principle of "personal permanence" of Marigny, or the "law of equality between continuous and discontinuous blows" which is even older, we can do the calculations and then play at any table, because chance is also formed with the spins written by the players in his notebook, this is his personal table. There is no obligation to follow all spins on the same table, we can calculate and after play, no matter what happened before. Because we can not change chance by making a choice. We can only change his bankroll by playing the good times.

Dobblesteen's intervention adds another problem to the discussion and you talk about it better than nobody.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 11:51:30 AM by Stratege »
 
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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #38 on: January 05, 2019, 12:26:35 PM »

Dobblesteen's intervention adds another problem to the discussion and you talk about it better than nobody.

Dobblesteen is of course right in his argument against the RNG driven Online Casino industry.

The RNG is to a gambler, or player, as such,  pure anathema when it comes to a REALISTIC outcome compared to the IDEALIZED outcome all RNG are supposed to be configured for, in accordance with the set rules by any gaming commission in each country that certifies said invention.

Sadly to say, Gaming Commission inspectors are often highly corruptible by an immensely rich industry that has too much profit to lose by not bribing said inspectors with sufficient funds which allows them to rubber stamp their RNG "roulettes" and other games to their own liking as to maximize profit from unknowing amateur gamblers.

Never use a RNG based "roulette" that basically is a highly manipulated number generator with an image of a roulette on it to fool the noobs that think it matches the real outcome of a real roulette wheel,  devoid of RRS and RNG connected computer.

If a gambler want to play for fun on a RNG, do it, but betting real money on a RNG "roulette" is asking for trouble on the long run. But then there are gamblers that has a bankroll he doesn´t care for much,  other than getting a gambling kick out of his or hers gambling addiction.

The good player who wants to play Brick & Mortar Casinos but cannot travel to such due to long distance, or suffering a B&M Casino that is not of good service and quality, may find such in various  Sport bet Online Casino Portals, or even original B&M Casinos that offers, via their own web page,  their tables on a direct live feed from their grande salons with present gamblers.

 Examples on such excellent High Quality, beyond reproach Casinos, are S:T Vincent Casino, Italy, San Remo Casino, Italy, Portomaso & Oracle Casino, Malta, Hippodrome Casino, London and of course a few more, which is a topic for another thread.

Anyone wanting to implement Marigny´s betting methodology online should choose these B&M casinos.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 12:38:27 PM by thomasleor »
 
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Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #39 on: January 05, 2019, 02:50:14 PM »
Also, some roulette wheels are better to play than others when comparing old roulette wheels to new modern ones.

I daring to say is that the house edge has grown when the wheels have become more modern with lower pockets, and the balls has also become more modern than it was in the old times past, and also computer software monitors wheel activity and The RRS .etc

RNG Roulette is like videslots with different graphics, that resembles roulette but with real roulette it has nothing to do with, just a different Videslots game  ;)  shape.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 02:54:36 PM by GambleOnlineRoulette »
 
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Dane

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #40 on: January 06, 2019, 08:45:37 AM »
A reply to Strategy (see Reply #37): We are still trapped in TIME.
 Marigny de Grilleau was occupied with attempts to transcend time in a way that can make us dizzy.
If it is true that each and every spin is independent of all other spins in the whole wide world in the Past, Present and Future, we should feel safe mixing spins as we like.

With "Heimbuchung" we could study our own personal Permanences at home, and just when some ECART seemed to be good enough, we could go to the B&M Casino and wait for some mystical Law to manifest itself. Right?

It sounds absurd, and I am sure that it is a false interpretation of Grilleau´s thinking.
We should get our priorities straight. Transcending time and place may not be as easy as it sounds.

« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 08:53:19 AM by Dane »
 
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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #41 on: January 06, 2019, 09:28:58 AM »
A reply to Strategy (see Reply #37): We are still trapped in TIME.
 Marigny de Grilleau was occupied with attempts to transcend time in a way that can make us dizzy.
If it is true that each and every spin is independent of all other spins in the whole wide world in the Past, Present and Future, we should feel safe mixing spins as we like.


Post #37 ?  Are you sure poor Dobbie mentioned something that made your Danish breakfeast coffee taste like  brewed through a 10 mile walked sock, Dane? LOL

Perhaps you referred to some other post, like post #38?  ;)
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 09:31:12 AM by thomasleor »
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #42 on: January 06, 2019, 09:52:59 AM »


DANE is not a false interpretation of the personal permanence (PP) of Marigny de Grilleau. Many players have difficulty understanding this phenomenon. A person records numbers in his life, chance expresses his laws everywhere. To note balls in Amsterdam then in London, then elsewhere, forms a suite expressing rigorously the laws of the chance. If we draw numbers at home with a "perfect" die and we continue to note balls in a casino, it is a continuation that still expresses the laws of chance.

This sounds mystical so here is another observation. The wheels are changed quite often and if we note the numbers of the same table we will always have the laws of chance that are formed. Yet players follow the gaps at the same table but had several cylinders! The important thing is the series of numbers noted in his notebook. It is on these player-specific numbers that the laws are expressed, and this player plays with his "pp" by going into any casino to write the sequel and play, without looking at what just happened at the game table in his absence because it is not his numbers personally lived.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 09:56:05 AM by Stratege »
 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #43 on: January 07, 2019, 02:25:20 PM »

I appreciated DANE's last post because it's important to say how we think things are. With the vast theorization of Marigny, many players have stumbled but what is important is to get up. THIRD also said in his last post that his deviance research showed him that playing after a gap was even worse.

I recall a quotation from Marigny (and all mathematicians agree) "the statistical difference alone isn’t enough [to win]". But, mathematicians don’t agree with Marigny when he says that "the convergence of deviances" gives an advantage. It should be noted that there is no formula in probability to affirm that Marigny is mistaken. The formulas deal with generalities and not specific cases. The opinion of mathematicians on this subject is therefore not scientific.

THOMASLEOR spoke of figures (spins of 1 against series of 2 or more). These figures are more stable than simple spins R or B. Explanation. If we start an experiment and that 4 Red come (RRRR), it don’t miss, according to the concept of cycle, 4 Black! It is a basic vision to think of a delay of 4 Black. The counting of simple chances according to their cycle duration of 2 spins gives RR; RB; BR; BB. With our early RRRR, so there are two RR cycles that have come. Two RB cycles are missing; two cycles BR and two cycles BB. If the players routinely take R / B the deviances will be stronger. To simplify the visual, Marigny preferred to choose easy to observe figures.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 02:28:18 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #44 on: January 07, 2019, 02:46:26 PM »
What I meant was that if we attempt to reverse engineer the wheel results to find the worst STD's and then play them, we will get the worst results possible, far worse than statistically expected.  We must stay grounded in a specific bet selection to avoid the curve fitting curse.