Author Topic: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance  (Read 3839 times)

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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2019, 09:15:36 AM »
Thank you Sputnik. Just tap "Marigny de grilleau".Or in french "forum casino jackpots Marigny".Or also "Marigny-de-grilleau.com".
 

thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2019, 09:17:35 AM »
Gathered some available literature on the Count and his philosophy, methodology including bet selection and game evaluation formulas.



Roulette: "Die Gesetze des Zufalls". Formeln und Tabellen nach Marigny de Grilleau
Taschenbuch – Mai 1999

Author Charles Delacroix    Price 19€   ISBN-10:3980283828

Amazon



Le gain scientifique d'une seule unité sur toute figure sélectionnée à la Roulette ou au Trente et Quarante assuré par des probabilités convergentes … ou les rythmes de la fatalité périodique.
         MARIGNY DE GRILLEAU (Henri-Bernard)

         Price 92€     ISBN-10: 2051027668
       
        Amazon



A german Grilleau site with google translation for those not understanding german.


https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fmatchman.de%2Fmarigny-de-grilleau%2F

       -----------------------------------------


A few formulas for ecart calculations.





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This concludes my contribution to those curious on the famous Count. For more information on the matter I leave it to Stratege to enlighten those interested in Marigny de Grilleau´s bet methodology and philosophy.

Personally,  I am not a fan of the counts bet methodology and analysis,  as I consider it way outdated compared to the VRTech-developed & extremely sophisticated wheel sector, real-time analyzing, platforms, I offer freely on my own forum.

Still, this OP has served to honor a great mind that used his mathematical knowledge to develop what was at his time a state of the art B&M bet methodology that managed to make a living for him for nearly 40 years (of which he spent a crazy amount of time at the Monte Carlo Casino)
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 09:49:27 AM by thomasleor »
 
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Dane

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2019, 09:24:02 AM »
BE AWARE:  Google searching "Marigny de Grilleau" resulted in intrusion.
 
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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2019, 09:26:35 AM »
BE AWARE:  Google searching "Marigny de Grilleau" resulted in intrusion.

LOL Dane, you dont get an intrusion by a simple search on his name, but surely clicking on links referring to it...there are many shady online casinos that shamelessly uses his famous name to try to plant virus on your computer in order to send you spam and other adware. The german link I provided below is according to my own Malwarebytes Anti-Malware,  secure to visit. And of course Amazon is safe to visit and check out his book.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 09:34:56 AM by thomasleor »
 

Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2019, 09:45:00 AM »
THOMASLEOR, my congratulations for your information and your respect for Mr. Marigny  ;) . When we respect the serious authors, we can read between the lines of the extra things! I understand your way on the sectors of the wheel, you're right, it's a good way too, it’s easier to understand than Marigny's theory. This don't mean that Marigny is difficult to understand. Players who arn’t logical enough and patient (those who want everything immediately) will not understand what is simple.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 09:48:16 AM by Stratege »
 
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Dane

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2019, 09:50:18 AM »
LOL. I confess! click click click. Thanks for your sound advice.
By the way: Some years ago I read one of the roulette books written by the Swedish Nordstöm. It did not convince me that he had found the holy grail or anything. I suppose that you are familiar with his works too?
 
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thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2019, 09:51:47 AM »


Stratege, I always respect genuinely sharp minds that devote time to develop and contribute great art & science to mankind where roulette research and advanced applications, based on the former, is not an exception.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 10:17:42 AM by thomasleor »
 
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Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #22 on: January 05, 2019, 10:13:28 AM »
The key to the final solution - Marigny de Grilleau
Is a book from a Swedish author (Sten Nordland) and the main titel of the book is International Roulette.
Its two books.
Part two is exclusive about basics and advance new development about Marigny de Grilleau's work.
I will write about this to become a reference area for cut point methodology or also known as regression towards the mean.
 

Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #23 on: January 05, 2019, 10:18:46 AM »


Stratege i made a dummy chart for the underrepresented events and the overrepresented events.
Works for even money bets using different playing models from Marigny De Grilleau
 
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Dane

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #24 on: January 05, 2019, 10:19:54 AM »
Thanks, Sputnik. One more confession from me: My memory failed.
 

Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #25 on: January 05, 2019, 10:24:56 AM »


I don't use strange lingo, any one can learn to calculate the imbalance.

The French word for STDV is ECART

First you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.

So lets assume you have an sequence with 14 series alternating with two singles present.

Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical ecart so we continue with…

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the square root of 16 = 4

And finally we divide the absolute ecart whit the square root

12 square root 4 = 3,00

The Statistical Ecart 3,00

 
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Stratege

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #26 on: January 05, 2019, 10:38:05 AM »
I don’t know the author quoted by DANE. The information of SPUTNIK is very good. I see that
there are connoisseurs. I want to know the generalities of this author, Nordland. Personally, I also improved the method of Marigny (but without changing the heart of the method, otherwise it would be a mistake).
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 10:39:43 AM by Stratege »
 

thomasleor

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #27 on: January 05, 2019, 10:45:34 AM »
By the way: Some years ago I read one of the roulette books written by the Swedish Nordstöm.

No. I do not know his work.


Quote
It did not convince me that he had found the holy grail or anything. I suppose that you are familiar with his works too?


The Holy Grail of roulette, Dane has to be defined by method and place of implementation.


My definition of a roulette HG:

A paper based system, or software based platform with specific inbuilt algorithms, that can enter any given session and produce a consistent series of wins that significantly out-waves any occurring losses.

The Win-Loss ratio in said system or platform always stays on a percentage above the expected blind bet Win-Loss ratio of the same bet selection, given the same amount of numbers but randomly selected.

Crude Example;  14 randomly selected numbers has a WL Ratio of 37.83% on any given wheel or session. This is not good for a consistent winning eligible for the HG approval.

A HG WL ratio on a specific bet selection of 14 numbers, at any given spin, and session of spins, should be higher than the ratio mentioned above. This difference becomes an EDGE is the favor of the player. Such a system, or platform will always end in a positive outcome for its user and can thus be considered the Holy Grail of roulette gaming. You can of course implement the above HG definition of all other wheel permutations , patterns or ECs.

Is there, or will there ever be a Holy Grail for B&M Casino play?

The answer is simply, no. Reason - The roulette, as a tool for games of chance, is way too complex for any paper and pen approach to produce consistent Win Loss ratio that has a consistent positive outcome. For sure certain players possessing a mind of sauvants, that can calculate immense data in their minds on a very short time, before the "no more bets "is declared by the dealer may be able to apply VB or similar techs to beat the wheel consistently, their minds should then be categorized as a very rare anomaly compared to most gamblers that are forced to use pen and paper or some crude method when approaching B&M play.

Is there, or will there ever be a HG for Online Casino Play? The answer is, yes!

According my HG definition above, Online roulette gaming (live B&M casino feed) faced with the rapid development in Computer processing power, and the fast approach of applicable AI technology will result in superior real-time based platforms that analyzes these feeds in real time with superior accuracy and apply two specific ways of sector analysis, resulting in good consistent winnings for its users.

The casinos will of course in time try to implement counter measures, but I suspect that this issue will result in a complex future for the online game providers which is a topic for another discussion.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 11:06:14 AM by thomasleor »
 
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Third

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #28 on: January 05, 2019, 10:45:56 AM »
His ability to quantify series of spins in mathematical formulas is amazing!  Thanks so much for this thread!!
 

Sputnik

Re: Marigny de Grilleau´s thoughts on the notion of Chance
« Reply #29 on: January 05, 2019, 10:50:37 AM »


Stratege i can explain the general idea behind hes work without getting deeper into the subject.
This is about hes playing models for Even Money Bets.
I have most of the playing models coded.

Series contra Singles

Series has the value of 1 and Singles has the value of 1.
There is as many singles as existing series no matter length.

Singles contra series

Singles has the value of 1 and Series has the value of 1.
there's is as many singles as existing series no matter length.

Singles contra larger series.

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
Series of six has the value of 4
And so it continues

Series of two contra larger series

Singles has the value of 0 (you just skip them as none existing)
Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
Series of seven has the value of 4
And so it continues …

Series of three contra larger series

Singles has the value of 0 (you just skip them as none existing)
Series of two has the value of 0 (you just skip them as none existing)
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 0
Series of five has the value of 1
Series of six has the value of 2
Series of seven has the value of 3
Series of eight has the value of 4
And so it continues.

Now to the underlying dimension

You can divide singles only into singles of singles and series of singles and use the same playing modell.
And you can divide singles series versus series of series and use the same playing modell

Apply same work into sector and groups of numbers

I have solutions to apply the playing models into sectors and groups of numbers using a very clever solution - my opinion
 
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