There is a common point between

**the basic theory of Marigny de Grilleau** and "

**the Monte Carlo method**". It is the convergence of information to predict an event that is random in its statistical distribution, but which by cross-referencing of several indices becomes less random according to the convergence of these indices. I said this morning, in another topic, that an old author said, in 1862, "you have to have the spirit of combination". One of the strong points of "

**the Monte Carlo method**" is to make random scenarios to gather clues.

Personally, without knowing the formulas of the Monte Carlo method, I also make scenarios with my personal model because I learned "the spirit of combination" (by several old authors

) and "convergence of probabilities" by Marigny.