Author Topic: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?  (Read 1154 times)

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thomasleor

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2019, 04:34:59 PM »

 All mathematicians will say that. But the works of Marigny de Grilleau demonstrate that there is a solution.

Not exactly a solution. It is more of a different approach towards the game of roulette, which most mathematicians deem to be a slave under the Law of Large numbers and hence not worth the time or energy.

Henri-Bernard de Grilleau, also known by his family tree as  Count Marigny de Grilleau,  was a very interesting man of his time. He was a sharp Mathematician and a lover of games of chance. This lead of course him to become a regular at the Monte Carlo Casino during the early 19th century for a very long time. There are some really  good  stories around his persona of which I choose to share one here;

An excerpt from his  Du traité pratique (Treaty of practice );


"When I was more than 40 years old, I went to Monte-Carlo to study roulette. There was  several old bookshops nearby on display, a great quantity of systems reputed infallible to win a large sum with a minimal capital. B eing a curious nature ... I bought a large number of them and lost money with each one of them: I was stumped. However, one of these systems  left me a pleasant memory. It cost only 20 francs; I remember it was contained in a beautiful opaque envelope, tied with golden threads, sealed, and on its beautiful surface I could read in gothic golden characters: "players, buy me, because by following my advice, you can never lose your gambling capital".  Intrigued, I bought the mysterious envelope, and on the cardboard, I read these words: " The secret to never lose is to never play !!!". I instantly understood that only this author was telling the truth ... "

« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 04:59:41 PM by thomasleor »
 
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Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2019, 05:46:48 PM »
I don't play Dozens BUT I will say that if a Dozen comes in only 20 times in 100 spins, its not MY Dozen.
 
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Stratege

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #17 on: January 01, 2019, 06:58:44 PM »

Not really a solution !!!

Understanding Marigny's theorizations is a lot of work because his 400-page main work does not clearly explain everything.
To preserve their career, mathematicians by profession will not say that Marigny is solid because morally they must not push the crowd tobelieve in easy money.

Some authors on roulette also said that Marigny was wrong. The traders don’t advertise for others. I spent a few thousand hours on these theorizations. My results are interesting because testing variants makes it possible to better understand certain things not sufficiently explained by Marigny. Many people contradict this author's theories because they Don't have all the information they need to understand, so they could not test in proper conditions.

Very curious that the contradictions on this subject for 90 years are never very technical to present arguments. But I don’t want to convince people, it's even fun to hear what others have heard about Marigny so thanks to THOMASLEAR  ;)
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 07:39:59 PM by Stratege »
 
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Ripple

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #18 on: January 01, 2019, 11:36:54 PM »
Let me rephrase my question again for clarity :

What is the longest streak of unique dozens showing up? Without a single repeat appearing.

Ie  1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 3 etc

 
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Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #19 on: January 02, 2019, 06:17:33 AM »
Aha, so play the last...

ok, calculating...

For realism I must include the zero as a "spin" as chips will be lost...

Interestingly, you get slightly better results (on longest streak) than playing a single Dozen (but worse short term results), with the expected max successive loss being 37.  Here is the distribution:

0 1682937...0.1051835625....1051835625
1 1137340...0.07108375....0.1762673125
2 768374...0.048023375
3 519303...0.0324564375
4 350675...0.0219171875
5 237140...0.01482125
6 159986...0.009999125
7 108177...0.0067610625
8 73032...0.0045645
9 49296...0.003081
10 33258...0.002078625
11 22744...0.0014215
12 15330...0.000958125
13 10294...0.000643375
14 6924...0.000643375
15 4727...0.0002954375
16 3146...0.000196625
17 2126...0.000132875
18 1364...0.00008525
19 1005...0.0000628125
20 705...0.0000440625
21 439...0.0000274375
22 316...0.00001975
23 207...0.0000129375
24 158...0.000009875
25 101...0.0000063125
26 56...0.0000035
27 39...0.0000024375
28 27...0.0000016875
29 18...0.000001125
30 16...0.000001
31 13...0.0000008125
32 11...0.0000006875
33 2...0.000000125
34 3...0.0000000625
35 2...0.000000125
36 1...0.0000000625
37 1...0.0000000625...1.0000000000

To get the actual percentage chances of gaining a hit on the listed spin number, just do a running total of the displayed percentages to the right (as shown with the first and last result).  Take that number and subtract 1.  Take that result with the following formula: 1/{result}-1 and you will have the odds of getting a hit on the listed spin (i.e. '1 in x" coup attempts).