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Author Topic: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?  (Read 780 times)

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Ripple

longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« on: December 30, 2018, 01:13:02 PM »
What is the longest streak of a unique dozen ? So longest streak of a dozen NOT repeating.

Any statistics ?
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2018, 01:31:13 PM »
If I say 15, could you make a strategy for this?
 

Ripple

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2018, 01:34:25 PM »
how often does that happen streak of 15 non-repeat dozen ?

Does the hit come on the 15th spin or the 16th ?

 

solaris

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2018, 01:34:56 PM »
55 times a dozen can miss. This was verified by BlueAngel during his tests, and he put it somewhere in this forum.

And, just imagine if the dozen comes after 55 spins, and then goes sleep again for another 30 times. No progression method will survive your BR. Lesson learnt hard way is never go after sleeping dozens.
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2018, 01:37:29 PM »
I think you minsunderstood his quesrion.

He meant not repeating one dozen. This means x y z x y z y x z x y z y z y z x y and then comes y then this is repeat.
 
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Ripple

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2018, 01:38:21 PM »
I am not talking about a sleeping dozen.

Attacking a sleeping dozen is for n00bs.

I am talking about the last spun Dozen Result.

How long is the streak of the LAST result not repeating.
 

solaris

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2018, 02:54:53 PM »
Ripple,

If you have a specific input file of past spins, then post it here. I can run this test coming week as I have plans to code something else.

Each file will give a different result and it’s better to test a file of past spins from a B&M table.
 

Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2018, 06:50:14 AM »
Pretty certain you will find that 40 spins will be the largest, where the 41st spin will achieve the hit.  The fact that it is the "last spun Dozen" doesn't have any noticeable effect, that is certain.  Regarding 15 missing spins, we should find that this will occur as follows:

.9981

where the 16th spin will achieve the hit.  We can quantify this as:

1 in 525 coup attempts.

Deviations from the above expected results (both positive and negative) are variance which can be easily tracked.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 07:00:15 AM by Third »
 

Stratege

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2018, 10:26:19 AM »

The question of RIPPLE is incomplete (but we understand  :) ) since the length is, in statistics, proportional to the number of spins. The gap will grow in proportion to the number of spins. There is therefore no limit in the absolute of mathematics.
I checked two months ago a dozen that do not repeat, this on 200 or 300 000 spins, I don't know !
However, the answer I can give would be incomplete for the practice if I don't speak of the indirect statistical discrepancy.
On my sample, I met the absence of my dozen 21 times and even 23 times. But there is worse with 29 times against 1 in 30 spins. This indirect gap is more devastating.
One can calculate the length of a delay on the dozens by multiplying by 1,5 the value of the déviations on the simple chances. The calculation becomes easy  :D
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 10:44:13 AM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2018, 02:56:37 PM »
But there is worse with 29 times against 1 in 30 spins. This indirect gap is more devastating.

Excellent point.  That is the next statistical question, the "indirect gaps". :D
 

Stratege

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2019, 09:59:36 AM »

Happy new year 2019

Your question that focuses on indirect gaps is actually more important. We can't win against the gaps that are dépendent on the law of small Numbers, so gaps formed in the short term.
The Reason is simple. A direct absence of 18 times the same dozen (which corresponds to a difference of 12 on the simple chances ; 12 x 1.5 = 18) is a probability, among all possible, that Don't mean that the break is more likely than the continuity. Other conditions are needed for the probability of breakage to increase.

 

Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2019, 10:27:46 AM »
Cumulative probability still applies to "indirect gaps" but once a hit is achieved, the probability becomes more likely that a gap will occur again, even though it is far less likely than if the first gap wasn't already present.
 

Stratege

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2019, 11:27:02 AM »

Despite my thousands of hours of theorical and practical study on gaps, I don't understand your last message !
My interpretation of your point is uncertain.

 
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Third

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2019, 01:57:53 PM »
a) 200 spins and then 1 hit vs. b) 199 spins and no hits.  It is more likely that A will again gap than it is that B will continue gapping but it is far less likely that A will gap again vs. a gap occurring from 0 spins.
 

Stratege

Re: longest streak of Unique Dozen ?
« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2019, 03:09:47 PM »

Ok. To consider values that meet at the tables, if on 100 spins our dozen comes only 20 times, there is a gap (loss of 40). The probability that our dozen comes in spin 101 remains 0,3333(%).
 All mathematicians will say that. But the works of Marigny de Grilleau demonstrate that there is a solution. To schematize (I say !), If our dozen has come excessively isolated shot, the convergent probability, formed between the gap of our dozen and its unbalanced distribution, will Promote the return of the series on our dozen.
Without this double gap and some other conditions, it's too uncertain to hope to win by this path.