Author Topic: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE  (Read 8203 times)

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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #90 on: May 17, 2019, 05:28:19 AM »
On the concept of “heat”

Third, the second part of your message of yesterday that I did not examine makes me better understand your ideas about the heat to study it, to measure it. I answer a little as I feel it, because the subject is vast.

Some members on the forums often used as trigger of the heat, 2 or 3 times the same number. The problem of straight ups is that it takes a very large number of situations to evaluate parameters. It is a very delicate and long study. But it is true that playing the heat with the right parameters is then a breeze. The only serious study I have on SU is over 70,000 units played for 2.3% net profit (in flat betting). I did not dig a lot because it's not my priority for the next few years. With the heat, it is necessary to control the environment of the numbers, to understand the force of the heat.

If the heat comes from a compensation of a gap very far. We cannot measure anything very precise. We were not there when the wheel experienced this gap.

But you remember that I presented an example on more than 100 spins. Some numbers were missing on 3 rotations (and more). These numbers then reacted collectively by coming together, often forming a sequel. Why? When there are too many numbers missing (on 3 rotations there are about 1.5 and, in the example, there were 3 - so 2 times more (and even a 4 th). the group of absentees must break, some numbers must come back. The group forms a stronger countervailing force and the tension is suddenly reversed, the numbers came back often, except for only 1 who respected the property of the binomial law to have in 4 rotations about 0.5 number late.

The "heat" can also come spontaneously, by the force of this binomial law, without reference to the past. The same numbers may be more often in heat. Measuring the strength of this heat is contradictory in a history of spins! We can only check if the environment of these numbers and favorable. If too many numbers come twice, the strength of the repetition is weakened, worn out. So, if too many numbers are missing, it is the absentees who will come to take up too much space, to come once and block the numbers twice. There are other elements to evaluate the situation. All the techniques we know can filter hot numbers that have potential or not in the spins that are coming. There is no special law to measure the heat, nor its duration (to my knowledge). There is a set of laws or reactions that are favorable (very alchemy), so that the repetition becomes predictable (this is actually heat).

But I emphasize that if the players appreciate the heat because it is nice and easy to play, it's possible to make very complex studies with all these laws more or less known and also unknown. The player also encounters the problem of time. There are laws that express themselves better on several rotations, their cycles are longer. Players only take advantage of the heat on generally short sightings; this is a problem (a lot less activity).
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 05:56:00 AM by Stratege »

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UnlikelySam

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #91 on: May 17, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
Stratege resuming to your post of Combinatorics and also the "Law of small numbers" ... I understand it for example the various patterns or combinations a  column can form namely using in this example 3 spins : ABC ; ABA ; CAB ; AAA etc etc ...

I stand corrected in my ideology in terms of "Law of small numbers"  it would not assist us in gaining an objective view in such a small case study of numbers. We need to compare it over a larger scale ; " The Law of large numbers"... My question to you would be ; how exactly can we use EC combinatorics to counter the Hazards or variance of the game? I must admit ;  my understanding of statistics and probability and the thirst for more knowledge has increased considerably due the postings of various members on this forum.

Thank you.

Regards

Sam...

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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #92 on: May 17, 2019, 10:39:17 AM »

Sam, you have understood that the first objective is to get beyond the "small numbers law". Your question: how to use combinatorics?

The most effective way is to hold on your computer a large number of columns with combinations (sufficiently independent). After each session at the casino, you add your spins history of the day. You search and find gaps on some combinations. The next day, you take and play these suits at the casino, and in the evening, you add in your general suite your spins of the day. Then you analyze for your next session.

I need to explain the "law of equality between continuous events and discontinuous events". This law is known for a long time (over 130 years), it allows to add the spins of our sessions to form a suite. This sequence has exactly the same characteristics as spins noted without interruption. This law is fantastic for the player. He no longer needs to do all his notations in front of the roulette wheel. He can do calculations that are impossible between two spins.

The principle of the game will be to look for home gaps, and play these gaps during our game session. Players who do not use this law are forced to have very simple methods (and even too simple to win). Be careful, this law works very well to look for gaps or limit the deviance of a method. I did not check for the concept of "heat".

For practice, the few interesting combinations to play will sometimes give contrary bets. As a combination that indicates to play red, and two others to play black. We'll make a difference and we'll play a unit on black (it's a zero economy and a way to reduce the variance).
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 10:44:49 AM by Stratege »

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UnlikelySam

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #93 on: May 17, 2019, 11:32:16 AM »

" The most effective way is to hold on your computer a large number of columns with combinations (sufficiently independent). After each session at the casino, you add your spins history of the day. You search and find gaps on some combinations. The next day, you take and play these suits at the casino, and in the evening, you add in your general suite your spins of the day. Then you analyze for your next session."

This is something I have been focusing on regarding the "Gaps" of each EC ; D & C..

" For practice, the few interesting combinations to play will sometimes give contrary bets. As a combination that indicates to play red, and two others to play black. We'll make a difference and we'll play a unit on black (it's a zero economy and a way to reduce the variance).   "

Now all this remains to be seen and tested...
« Last Edit: May 17, 2019, 11:53:37 AM by UnlikelySam »

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #94 on: May 23, 2019, 07:22:24 AM »
Some numbers were missing on 3 rotations (and more). These numbers then reacted collectively by coming together, often forming a sequel. Why? When there are too many numbers missing (on 3 rotations there are about 1.5 and, in the example, there were 3 - so 2 times more (and even a 4 th). the group of absentees must break, some numbers must come back. The group forms a stronger countervailing force and the tension is suddenly reversed, the numbers came back often, except for only 1 who respected the property of the binomial law to have in 4 rotations about 0.5 number late.

Very interesting trigger!  Roll a 111 spin cycle and anytime there is more than 2 numbers that miss, bet all of them (3+)!!

Unfortunately, my posts (2) that prompted this reply, disappeared from this thread.

But I found them both in my history.  Only one of them was in THIS thread:

Quote from: Third
I hold that as long as we have at least 37 spins, there is no such thing as "a heat concept" that is dependent on subjectivity; its an objective and persistent fact.  The statistical chances of a single series of 37 numbers is statistically beyond the span of all of our lifetimes -- now what about it repeating twice in a row (74 spins)?  So we have no need to talk about the fact that hotness is not guaranteed because that is a practically theoretical consideration.

What is interesting is that the same statistical probability that forces heat, also limits its duration through gaps.  Since the Law of the Third is the manifestation of this forced heat, the question is, what is the Law that determines how/when this forced heat is limited and returns; i.e. the Anti-Law of the Third.

We already know the force that causes the heat; it is simply that 37^37 is so profoundly rare that it is practically impossible for any of us to see.  That's easy to understand!  However, hidden in this statistical picture is the fact that since heat must be produced, it also must be produced in groups of numbers (of any size) as the hottest, simply because the same winnowing force of 37^37 must also produce it!

So we will always have our Ultimate Heat to work with in every sequence of at least 37 spins and it will always defy statistical probability for the sequence but THERE IS AN ANTI-FORCE THAT LIMITS HOW FAR BEYOND PROBABILITY IT WILL GO.

If we can learn to measure this Anti-Force, we will simply break the code of roulette and any other randomly generated sequence.  How do we even identify it so we can study it?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2019, 07:32:24 AM by Third »

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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #95 on: June 12, 2019, 11:50:35 AM »

Third, to answer about a more precise law that would organize the notion of "heat" in proportions that interest us, it is necessary to specify several elements. If in a cycle of 37 spins a number comes, it is "normal", it has a chance against the 36 others. But those who come 2 times exceed their theoretical chance. They are therefore in "heat", say from the theoretical point of view! Determining whether the heat will be slowed down (fewer repeating numbers), or amplified, is certainly a matter of "configuring" rotations for perhaps weeks or months, so that a cycle, today, will favor plus some numbers or leave them out? There are, in this case, too many known and unknown laws that act.

In philosophy we say that "we can only deliberate on what is known", this means that to discover a truth (approximate), we can only use criteria that we know (so we will always be imprecise, despite the certainties of our knowledge that has only one eye). So, for simplicity, it would take an equation to determine the absence or repetition of a number (to have a shorter list). This equation would count the types of "delay" and the types of "heat", to find this list of numbers which should form a heat or form a delay !
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 11:53:31 AM by Stratege »

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Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #96 on: June 12, 2019, 12:14:43 PM »
Yes, and wouldn't that require a very large sample size to be able to form any relevant conclusions?

Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #97 on: June 13, 2019, 06:26:42 PM »

I believe that the number of (sliding) spins to achieve this (satisfactory) equation depends on its purpose, and type of luck. For example, if the player limits himself to looking for "heat" on a number that has come 3 or 4 times, he will see only a small part of the totality of this phenomenon which affects globally all the numbers. It's the same with the "delay". To widen the frame of our observations is to reach a very different dimension, where things will find better explanations. But we must know how to limit ourselves to the essential things.

The "pyramid of effects" begins at its base by the notion of pattern or repetition! the hazard no longer "behaves" in the same way if we observe chains of elements. A spin is an information of the first degree (can we say) and that does not tell us anything! But if we have 4 times the same number fast enough, we call it "heat"! Total chaos, with a few spins, we can talk now, after 20 spins or more, of a phenomenon! The difference is huge!

So, to answer the question (unpretentious), we have already talked about 111 spins. This is beginning to be a more serious basis for hoping to capture an advantageous phenomenon. By intuition, we can admit that if with 25 spins we found a hot number, it is obvious that if we look back two or three cycles and that number was already out, we should measure this impact in our statistics, for to know if this is a good or bad "configuration". The heat must have its strict criteria.

With "delay" I know these criteria better, so I can add effects up to the fifth degree. To have these effects, I need a greater volume of spins but, when I have my criteria aligned, their "sensitivity" becomes strong, and a trigger will be a real information (because it belongs to a group of criteria that form a chain). I am talking about the trigger of a phenomenon (compensation or trend or even heat). It's very different with a totally random game, because in this case, a trigger only triggers the bets, nothing else, or maybe there is a phenomenon in the end, the fortune of the casino!
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 06:32:27 PM by Stratege »

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