Author Topic: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE  (Read 5101 times)

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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #75 on: April 28, 2019, 04:56:53 PM »

Stratege I will show you something interesting about balance and imbalance.
There is a book with the name 'Conquer the Casinos'' by Philip Koetsch.

He simulate 60.000 placed bets with 1.7 House Edge.
83% had at least one reversal during 100 placed bets samples flat betting.

Will post the complete test with all parameters.
I use them as a reference when the testing selections.

Cheers

Sputnik, can you give us more information? It is rare that an author has a realistic advantage. A 1.7% advantage is here +1020 units!  Is it a game in flat betting or progression? What interests me most in your message is this observation about balance and imbalance (yes, theory). Thank you for bringing your information and thoughts on "Conquer the Casinos". :)
« Last Edit: April 28, 2019, 05:01:58 PM by Stratege »
 
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Sputnik

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #76 on: April 29, 2019, 02:56:48 PM »


Stratege - I have been warned about posting to much sensitive information that others steel and try to sell - also get several private messages about the question of how to play.
To be honest I only feel I been meeting two that are on a similar level.
That is you and the member AsymBacGuy at betselection cc.

Now I stop revealing sensitive information and can only talk in general, I feel I moved from Marigny more and more and concentrate my research and development on my discovery.
The basic idea has already been posted as Sputnik's March and you can google it, the deeper understanding behind the concept I am willing to share with you and AsymBacGuy who I email yesterday.

The reason is that I might be missing some angle or tweak or other information that I might be unaware of where you could contribute - give and take.
No one has discovered such strong bias with random bits using any similar concept.
There have been close attempts that did not work - Like Ellis NOR method.

I reach a level of understanding where i can claim to know why and where larger series will unfold based upon math and probability with such likelihood that my odds is better than the average punter.
When you follow the norm and the traditional thinking you end up on no man land where there is no solutions.

I can isolate one bias among other bias sequences and pinpoint out what will happen next or I can use a march to try to take advantage of all angles because I understand how to read random bits.
This means that I been working on solutions to play Baccarat Tournament and try to win the first price - there you have the serious money.

Cheers
 
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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #77 on: April 29, 2019, 06:18:53 PM »

Very nice message, Sputnik! I understand your discretion (I also avoid, since your signal, to say very specific things). Thank you for saying that AsymBacGuy has a similar level to mine (I am honored by your praise). I will read his messages, what he tells.

I really understand your discretion, because I also have my secrets. Marigny has not discovered everything about EC, and all authors must be out of date. Our creativity and our potentialities must not remain within the limits of authors. We must look further, higher up. You want us to think, with AsymBacGuy, about an improvement. I love trying to improve a method that already has a good base, it is energizing. I then accept your sharing about your concept (remember to protect your "intellectual property"). And, I will soon study "Sputnik's March" on betselection. If you can explain the problem clearly enough, I could give you my opinion quickly. Traditional thinking a "no man land"! I think that roulette must be above all an object of study, otherwise we cannot understand the reality of things. Between being distracted by the game and aiming for the top prize in a contest, there is a huge difference! Congratulations for your work.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 06:21:53 PM by Stratege »
 
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Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #78 on: April 29, 2019, 07:05:26 PM »
Ya, for me, I have simply given up (regarding EC's); I simply look for the set probability and focus on loss recovery.

I think this guy ends up being correct?

While people do not see eye to eye regarding bet selection, really it is a defensive mechanism, they need to convince themselves more than anybody else. In essence bet selection is a lottery. Each bet is a 50/50 bet, what happens after X is a lottery. No worries 'bout what you think, this can also suit your mindset.

It really doesn't matter, either mathematically or logically.
If you believe in trending, then wait for one column of four and use the bet selection SAME. If you don't believe in trending maybe use the bet selection OPPOSITE. Random is probably the best.
Logically it doesn't make any difference.

If you decided to play the options sequentially, option 1 is BBBB, you need to decide if you will bet the same as BBBB or the opposite of BBBB, which of course would be would be PPPP, It all works out the same, you're playing with of 15/1 odds no matter what.

Yes IT WILL lose eventually, will you be at the table when it does?  It can even lose when you are at the table...hence the reason to limit your exposure.

It really doesn't matter how you determine your bet selection.

I love playing against gaps with inside numbers and it works very well for me but I suspect that the reasons it works for me are:

a) Bet Sizing
b) Payout > 1:1

And not because of the gaps.  I have also run tests on gaps and in the end, they perform exactly according to expectation.

I would love to flat bet but until I can identify a method that surpasses the effectiveness of a progression (e.g. 93% win [coup] rate for a series of 4), I will be using a progression and simply attempting to limit my losses as much as possible.

If a bet selection works, it should function with a two step progression; i.e. 1,2 or 1,1.x
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 07:19:41 PM by Third »
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #79 on: April 30, 2019, 05:41:15 PM »
You know, this is such an uplifting thread and after my last post I feel like such a "Donald Downer", so I thought I would contribute something positive (in more ways than one).

One thing about the Ellis NOR trend monitoring system, is that the obtained data can be viewed for various purposes and utilized in different ways.  One can say "his methodology doesn't work" but can you be sure?  There is a great amount of flexibility available with the collected data; it all depends on what you want to achieve.

Here is an excellent example:

What if we combine RU&P with Ellis' OR count?  What we monitor for are the EC's that have a negative OR count and we want to bet the one that has the lowest and we use FTL.

Just to explain it, the OR count is where the current result is compared with the result before it and the count is scored +1 if it is chop and -1 if it is streak; thus, negative counts mean hits for FTL.  The Ellis data will also show us the dominant EC in every pair and so we want to focus on that EC as well.

The point is that the Ellis data gives us so much information and we are able to use that information in so many different ways that I don't think someone can say, "NOR doesn't work".  It certainly didn't work the way that I was trying to utilize it recently (only bet the dominant trends when all NOR data agrees on the results) but here is an example using the above criteria that works very well:

4 29 28 22 23 2 13 35 22 30 35 35 21
LHHHHLLHHHHH
EOEEOEOOEEOOO
BBBBRBRBBRBBR

Let's just start off betting FTL and let the data lead us from there.

4 W+2
29 W+3
29 W+5
28 W+7
22 W+10
23 L+6


The OR count for HIGH is equal to BLACK but we just missed on BLACK, so lets switch to HIGH with a streak in progress.  BET HIGH.

2 L+4

Since BLACK is dominant, let's switch back to BET BLACK, with a streak in progress.

13 W+6
35 W+7
22 W+9
30  L+6


Again, HIGH is dominant with a streak in progress, no need to blindly bet FTL on RED, let's BET HIGH.

35 W+8
35 W+9
21 W+10


The final result (21 RED) shows how the Ellis data lead us in the right direction with HIGH, guiding us to put our FTL bets on the dominant streaks. 

Both BLACK/RED & LOW/HIGH had negative OR counts and the Ellis data indicated which EC we should focus on.

Obviously this is a simple example but the basic principles are very powerful!

I also wanted to point out the virtues of RU&P.  It is a VERY resilient flat betting, up as you win progression.  I have found success with it with every session I have tried recently.  In the worst sessions, the unit size can be increased for recovery and then reduced at an advantageous point.  Also, when balance plateaus are reached, one does not have to continue to pull up but can flat bet a single unit or other smaller amount.  Like Harry J says, the worst sessions are telegraphed and a person can simply leave the table at an advantageous point.  Normally RU&P will hover (because it flat bets) and then catch a streak to produce strong profit.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 06:43:28 PM by Third »
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #80 on: April 30, 2019, 06:03:03 PM »
If it's real sequence,  l would profit at least 100 units there on worst of cases with minimum risk. 
   Who else can see money there and can explain how l would do it?
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #81 on: April 30, 2019, 06:44:36 PM »
You don't bet EC's, right?  You might bet 35 after the repeat and profit on the 3rd hit?  Based on your win amount, I would assume 3 units?
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 07:09:02 PM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #82 on: April 30, 2019, 08:50:58 PM »
The numbers show two dominant hot zones. Just playing the zones for a few spins will net the 100 units plus profit

 
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MrPerfect.

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #83 on: April 30, 2019, 10:45:27 PM »
You both are right.
   Now... how many units would EC produce? Is it even worth it?
 
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Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #84 on: April 30, 2019, 11:20:38 PM »
AHA!  EN GUARDE!

If my EC bet has a 93%+ chance of obtaining a 1 unit coup and if I miss I am only down 15 units, where can I find a deal that good ANYWHERE on the felt?  Just by way of comparison, a SU number requires 98 spins with a total outlay of 299 units, just to equal the same % chance to hit.

With my maximum exposure of only 15 units, my unit size can become larger, quite fast... (I can double it on a daily basis).

HAHA!  Touche'!
« Last Edit: April 30, 2019, 11:31:41 PM by Third »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #85 on: May 06, 2019, 03:06:25 PM »
Just wanted to test this using RX ; + - 20k live spins. Ran the numbers to gather some stats... The 2 files are also included in the zip file ; no need to download them just the zip file... Rename the " .txt " extension to zip ;)

Regards

Sam...
 
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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #86 on: May 06, 2019, 05:33:52 PM »

The reason is that I might be missing some angle or tweak or other information that I might be unaware of where you could contribute - give and take.
No one has discovered such strong bias with random bits using any similar concept.

 

Hi, Sputnik, I went to the betselection forum. Many modifications of the "Sputnik March" between the first and the last page of this discussion. I need to know your results. What is most important in your selection is to evaluate the imbalance in your favor. If we forget the zero and your market brings an imbalance in the game (for example an initial advantage of 0.5%, without the zero), it will be quite easy to improve your method.

I see for the moment 4 or 5 stages:
1) Your selection of spins
2) a small combinatory to create parallel games and use the principle of "differential play", this multiplies the initial advantage
3) set a minimum value at the output of the differential play
4) put this value in a table that will use some mechanisms to reduce losses, so increase profit.

A fifth step will be for you to adapt a progression (I will bring if necessary, some principles on the progression positive). I emphasize that the 4 stages of improvement that I can propose do not belong at all to Marigny's theorizations. The “Sputnik March” must use other principles, first and foremost.

Greetings
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 05:46:28 PM by Stratege »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #87 on: May 06, 2019, 11:30:18 PM »
" The 2 files are also included in the zip file ; no need to download them just the zip file... "

Just in case to avoid it being ambivalent... It is only necessary to download the ".txt" file as it has more of the stats than the 2 uncompressed files :-[ :D 


« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 12:19:01 AM by UnlikelySam »
 
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Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #88 on: May 08, 2019, 10:16:24 PM »
If my EC bet has a 93%+ chance of obtaining a 1 unit coup and if I miss I am only down 15 units, where can I find a deal that good ANYWHERE on the felt?  Just by way of comparison, a SU number requires 98 spins with a total outlay of 299 units, just to equal the same % chance to hit.

35 SU numbers requires 1 spin with a total outlay of 35 units :/
« Last Edit: May 08, 2019, 10:46:13 PM by Third »
 

Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #89 on: May 13, 2019, 06:24:46 PM »
UnlikelySam, yes, if you want to go further it's better to continue the discussion here. I specify that red / black or D and C do not have good stability. It is necessary to use the figures of several spins. This is the first thing I will explain better. Then the STD calculation was explained by Sputnik in the topic "Marigny de Grilleau", but I will rephrase it in a technical and practical way. The starting point remains the combinatorics, without this, the player will not quickly find deviances long enough. I insist again. To use a tool like combinatorics is to look at the hazard as with a microscope. How many things have been discovered with the invention of the microscope? Personally, with combinatorics, I understood and discovered several very useful things. It is a tool for EC to the SU. It's primarily a research tool and statistics, but after finding, it becomes primarily a tool for practice.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2019, 06:27:59 PM by Stratege »
 
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