Author Topic: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE  (Read 3992 times)

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MickyP

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2019, 05:58:18 AM »
There is no way to have a high hit rate and bother with the losses. These 2 things are simply not compatible.  You can play offencive or defencive , all other solutions is a road to nowhere.

If you are playing a few numbers at 35-1 odds with a high hit rate then losses may be insignificant but if you are playing more numbers with a watered down 2-1 or even 5-1 odds then the losses become significant even with a high hit rate.
Take Palestis Single Dozen System or the Dozen Drive; both have a high hit rate over 3/4 spins but losses significantly influence the potential to profit.
I should have mentioned this in my post above.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #46 on: January 23, 2019, 07:19:51 AM »
High hit rate is a hit rate above expectation. If your hits there are according to expectation, you at the one being hit there...
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #47 on: January 23, 2019, 09:09:06 AM »
Expectation includes the successive miss of a high hit rate, just very rarely. 

For example, a 99.9% hit(/win) rate is almost invincible BUT it IS expected to miss once in every 999 attempts. 

If we are trying to make a living from roulette, we WILL encounter this, as certain as we are drawing breath and if we are not properly structured, we will lose our entire bankroll and our ability to earn.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 09:17:31 AM by Third »
 

MickyP

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #48 on: January 23, 2019, 11:03:09 AM »
High hit rate is a hit rate above expectation. If your hits there are according to expectation, you at the one being hit there...

Thank you for correcting me MrPerfect. Seems that I see  high hit rate as expectation behaving better than I actually expect it should. A string of 20 plus consecutive wins can then be considered normal if played to expectation.
And so we learn; thanks again MrPerfect.
 

Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #49 on: January 23, 2019, 07:45:21 PM »
The interest of a forum is to be able to present one's ideas and to be able to question oneself in return. I perceive at Third the importance of the psychological factor (to be "structured"). Third has already spoken to us that a clever and wise progression and now he adds the psychological factor. But how to outwit chance with these two forces (intelligence and psychology)? This is a very special project because the criteria are no longer essentially technical!

It’s very difficult psychologically for a player not to change the way he plays when he has lost 50% of his bankroll. Generally, these players give up their game in progress when they have lost 75% of this bankroll, because the bets are very high and only a few cartridges remain (sometimes it's a bad choice to stop). It must also be said that coming to play with a big bankroll is already psychologically a weakness, difficult to manage.

I personally played a method, 25 years ago, that reported 0.7 token per hour in flat betting (very serious testing done with another person). We went to the casino together. One day, he told me "I lost my bankroll for the session". I know he came back to play 2 hours later with a new bankroll (mistake), but it was very bad again. I am sure he has worked hard. He was no longer a businessman of the game, but player carried away, that's for sure. It was sad for me to understand that even with a winning method, he would eventually lose all his money.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2019, 07:51:50 PM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #50 on: January 24, 2019, 04:06:14 AM »
Sure. there is always the psychological factor but by being "properly structured", I mean having an adequate bankroll and employing the necessary strategy to survive, while minimizing the losses as much as possible.  Sometimes giving up IS the best move and as long as that solution is as rare as can possibly be, its not such a big deal.
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #51 on: January 24, 2019, 05:51:58 AM »
Here are a couple of articles about losing that I really like because they capture the gritty reality from the heart:

Positive Aspects of Losing
The Value of the Bankroll

If your bankroll lives, you live.  Plain and simple.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 05:55:26 AM by Third »
 

Third

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #52 on: January 24, 2019, 07:42:37 AM »
Quote
With proper bankroll management failures can go unnoticed or at least have a minimal impact, so the educational value of the loss (streak) outweighs the downsides.

Quote
You are your bankroll. That’s what defines you in the game more than everything else. You are your bankroll. Keep that in mind. This is your hard earned money.   That money is important. When that money is over you are out of the door.

Quote
Your bankroll is actually the only thing you really know about your session. You don’t know the next spin, you may not know exactly the strong and weak spots of your system, you may not know when to stop, but you do know your money. It is a great indicator and something absolutely real. Not a theory, not the ghost of the house advantage or your computer simulations and your tests on which reality can step upon and crush any given day. Your money is a fact. You see it increasing and decreasing before your eyes and you know when it’s over it’s over.

« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 08:12:24 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #53 on: January 24, 2019, 05:20:42 PM »
High hit rate is a hit rate above expectation. If your hits there are according to expectation, you at the one being hit there...

Thank you for correcting me MrPerfect. Seems that I see  high hit rate as expectation behaving better than I actually expect it should. A string of 20 plus consecutive wins can then be considered normal if played to expectation.
And so we learn; thanks again MrPerfect.

MrPerfect I hope you got the sarcasm in my quoted post. Seems you and I differ on a few things.
 

Greek

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #54 on: January 24, 2019, 06:26:46 PM »
The interest of a forum is to be able to present one's ideas and to be able to question oneself in return. I perceive at Third the importance of the psychological factor (to be "structured"). Third has already spoken to us that a clever and wise progression and now he adds the psychological factor. But how to outwit chance with these two forces (intelligence and psychology)? This is a very special project because the criteria are no longer essentially technical!

It’s very difficult psychologically for a player not to change the way he plays when he has lost 50% of his bankroll. Generally, these players give up their game in progress when they have lost 75% of this bankroll, because the bets are very high and only a few cartridges remain (sometimes it's a bad choice to stop). It must also be said that coming to play with a big bankroll is already psychologically a weakness, difficult to manage.

I personally played a method, 25 years ago, that reported 0.7 token per hour in flat betting (very serious testing done with another person). We went to the casino together. One day, he told me "I lost my bankroll for the session". I know he came back to play 2 hours later with a new bankroll (mistake), but it was very bad again. I am sure he has worked hard. He was no longer a businessman of the game, but player carried away, that's for sure. It was sad for me to understand that even with a winning method, he would eventually lose all his money.

The psychological aspect of roulette affects only the degenerate gambler. A roulette professional is not immune to psychological warfare of the casino; but, he is able to identify the pitfalls and disciplined enough to guard himself from self-destruction.
 
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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #55 on: February 12, 2019, 09:05:27 AM »

                                                                     CURVE  FITTING  CURSE

                                      (an explanation about the duration of the déviations)

A few weeks ago, Third spoke about the phenomenon of "curve fitting curse". To simplify this phenomenon, let's say that a gap can last for an exceptional duration. A very old saying also says "you must never follow the gap".

The players who will study the numbers absent (or late) will easily meet this phenomenon of extended gap. In practice, a number (or several) may be absent for a long time. This responds to the opposite phenomenon, when a number or several are hot and come in repetition during a very short sequence. In the landscape of roulette publications, authors are happy to bring methods on hot numbers but nothing (or very little) on cold numbers. An unsuccessful search on hot numbers will lose some%. But an unsuccessful search on cold numbers may show a loss much greater than the effect of zero. There is really a further obstacle for those who want to explore cold numbers.

Hot numbers, on the other hand, are easier to study. The player who wants to develop a method on hot numbers will typically have 2 criteria to define. The number of repetitions of a number (3, 4, 5, 6 ?) And the duration of its attack. But it’s not so simple, otherwise many players would have already found a solution (more or less advantageous). My studies on deviations may perhaps provide a (partial) explanation for this problem on hot numbers.

Let's go back to the notions of gap and "curve fitting curse". I practice looking for gaps between 4 different figures on EC. But to simplify my demonstration, we will take the numbers 1 to 9; 10 to 18; 19 to 24 and 25 to

36. So, we have a game with 4 possibilities or 4 probabilities (noted 1, 2, 3 and 4). Now let's look at a gap situation on probability "4" :

2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 4 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 /

We assume that our trigger is the repetition of our lagging probability. Here 4 and 4 tells us to start playing the probability "4", because we think the gap may be over. Our probability must return in wave to decrease its negative difference. But we could have a surprise! In fact, a wave that saves must bring repetitions of "4" or intermittences (ex. 4 1 4 2 4). But we find that the game sequence has formed a global pattern with far too many repetitions and intermittencies. In this case, there is a risk that the probability "4" will not come in repetition (or series) or intermittently. The consequence will be a gap on probability "4" that can be prolonged without bringing a positive wave quickly enough.

I think then that this "curve fitting curse" is (at least partially) favored by this type of spin distribution which blocks or slows down the return of a probability, however, at a distance.

In my work on the gaps with the EC, I found that when I 2 figures away (2 / 4), I win more often and faster my 2 units, because I have a double gap , then the return to equilibrium (compensation) is more dynamic. But

when I have a gap on a single figure the game usually hangs longer, because I have a simple gap and that other figures can sometimes block the formation of the series (or repetitions or small favorable wave on my probability played) .

The conclusion is that we should not only look at the behavior of a number, a street, a red, etc. We must also look at the behavior of other probabilities. The whole forms a complementarity.

If we go back to the hot numbers, that means thinking about whether there are too many hot numbers at the same time. Or, too, if there are too many "tepid" numbers that may slow down (or block) hot numbers ?

In the end, this gap analysis, from the point of view of the "curve fitting curse", can bring a new reflection on the phenomenon of "heat" !
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 09:20:03 AM by Stratege »
 
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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #56 on: February 16, 2019, 12:50:51 PM »
                                                        PATTERNS AND MOVEMENTS OF THE GAME

                                                        (an observation on thousands of spins)

An old author has said that long figures (or patterns, ex. BBBBBBBB), on EC, came more in a cluster, so these figures would no longer completely follow a normal statistical distribution. I did a first test, but I did not confirm this hypothesis, despite having tried several variants. I then made a second test under other conditions and that reveals that patterns are rather a trend according to certain movements of the game.

For this testing, I took a very broad experimental framework (without thinking about the practice because we must first find a phenomenon and then adapt an effective technique). I used patterns of 8 on R / B. There are 256 possible patterns. Patterns form pairs (ex. BBBBBBBB and BBBBBBBR or BBBBRRRR and BBBBRRRB, etc.). So, in my testing I have 128 pairs of patterns. I also specify that a technique of play is to follow patterns to play only the last term (the eighth here, to avoid having many units to his bankroll).

Admittedly, this type of approach requires a long process before finding the situations I want to explain. But everyone can reduce the length of patterns. I present here only the conclusions of an initial experimental research. However, as each new game session we add the new numbers to the old ones, this initiation (launching) is done only once.

After thousands of spins noted, our 128 pairs of patterns take various forms. Some couples are late, others are average, and others have a sometimes-impressive statistical lead.

I observed two typical movements in the game to think that there are mainly 2 specific phenomena. The first phenomenon comes on some couples of patterns that are very much ahead statistically. If a couple came with a very balanced sequence between the two patterns, at one time a pattern can take a strong lead, even though it is already statistically ahead! The balance cannot continue for a long time, so the movement of the game changes and the trend becomes the series of one side (one pattern).

The second phenomenon concerns couples who are very late. When these patterns come again (they wake up), they do not come in long runs but rather in intermittences and very short series (series of 2 or 3) and the movement of the game is very balanced.

In conclusion, despite the statistical equality between all patterns of the same length, there are very dominant patterns, but we cannot predict whether they will continue to be dominant.

A possible solution is to wait until the end of a period of balance between the patterns of a couple before playing. Because a micro-trend before playing is less reliable than waiting for a loose movement of the game that has to change.Securing your game must be the first objective of the player.

This study shows quite clearly that we must above all observe the movements of the game and only then play the dominant or late patterns, according to the phenomena of series formation and intermittences (on EC).It must be emphasized that on late patterns, "absence is an invisible but very real movement of the game, contrary to the movement of equilibrium.Otherwise the tendency to break (intermittences and very small series) would not be the dominant form that will soon come”. (Stratege quote)

For technical information, in this study, a pattern is composed of 8 spins, the following pattern is composed of the last 7 spins + the new spin that has just come out of the cylinder.So, if we note 100 spins, we will have noted 93 patterns in our notebook.The real work with roulette is to identify sufficiently precise phenomena and then to try different techniques.These verifications with different techniques also make it possible to better understand the phenomena studied and finally to master its subject. Maybe some players will understand better the great interest of an experimental research, it was my goal!However, I wrote this message thinking that Giajjenno could find some interesting inspiration for his research.  ;)
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 01:03:43 PM by Stratege »
 
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Stratege

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #57 on: February 23, 2019, 10:59:44 AM »

                                              LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS AND LAW OF GREAT NUMBERS
                                           (the law of small numbers is in a way "incompressible")

The law of small numbers concerns samples of 64 spins at most. After this limit, we speak of the law of large numbers, or Bernoulli's law. For players who think, design or test a method on EC, D / C, DS, quad, street, it’s important to understand the main features of the law of small numbers to avoid falling into a "dead end". The framework of this law of small numbers does not make it possible to find, by the statistics, an advantageous phenomenon.

For example, we know that a series of 20 Red or Black is formed with 1 million spins (exactly 1,048,576 spins without zero). There is in the random distribution of 20 spins, 1,048,576 different patterns possible. All of these patterns form a perfect balance statistically (500,000 Red and 500,000 Black). This perfect balance with the sum of all R / B patterns is, of course, also found with other types of wagers (D / C, etc.).

In practice, in the context of the law of small numbers, there is no advantageous pattern or a particular trigger to play a few spins and win. Generally, the players imagine (real examples on other forums) that a trigger Red allows to play then the column 3 loaded in red numbers! Or another method presented, wait 2 times the same color before playing the "trend". All these "tactics" will end with a sum of attacks that will have a perfect equality + zero (which will slowly eat the bankroll of the player).

Note that the spreads, on all types of bet, are proportionally equal. A difference of 10 on EC corresponds to a difference of 15 on D or C. Also, no progression will be able to win in the limit of the law of the small numbers (so if the attacks have a duration of only a few tens of spins), because that the pattern exactly contrary to the progression exists. It is therefore necessary to know how to go beyond the scope, we must break the limit, of the law of small numbers because this law does not offer the possibility of capturing a tendency, a heat or the compensation of a difference. This law seems to be "incompressible", without conjugating it with the law of large numbers !
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 11:14:08 AM by Stratege »
 
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Greek

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #58 on: February 23, 2019, 04:19:47 PM »

                                             
Note that the spreads, on all types of bet, are proportionally equal. A difference of 10 on EC corresponds to a difference of 15 on D or C. Also, no progression will be able to win in the limit of the law of the small numbers (so if the attacks have a duration of only a few tens of spins), because that the pattern exactly contrary to the progression exists. It is therefore necessary to know how to go beyond the scope, we must break the limit, of the law of small numbers because this law does not offer the possibility of capturing a tendency, a heat or the compensation of a difference. This law seems to be "incompressible", without conjugating it with the law of large numbers !

Stratege,
Your posts are well written. Regarding the highlighted text above, how does one "know how to go beyond the scope..?"  "This law does not offer the possibility of capturing a tendency, a heat or the compensation of a difference." Is there another "law" that captures the tendency of small numbers?

 
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MrPerfect.

Re: PHILOSOPHICAL ALCHEMY AND CHANCE
« Reply #59 on: February 23, 2019, 05:09:18 PM »
These lows are whatever, small numbers, big numbers, third... all whatever. None of that matters.
   What matters is basic probability, baesian probability and for how much wheels are in perfect working conditions.. or in simple words... what happens and how likely it to repeat .
   It is already a publick knowledge from long ego ( doesn't matter if you personally belong to this publick) that some numbers tend to perform better then other numbers on long run.
   If numbers hit more, relative distances between hit numbers start to show patterns ( more hits on specific distances). While it happens, it's a good idea to follow numbers that hit not long ego ( repeat numbers for example).
 Choosing wisely with some data avaliable may put player in situation where he will greatly reduce HE and potentially overcome it.
  I say " choose wisely"... no need to bet on repeat numbers if they have no history of repeating before.
  Same as numbers themselves,  sectors on the wheel or collections ( groups that tend to become hot together) may be descovered.
    Mentioned above is a valid reason to create systems that actually make sense and correspond to physical reality of wheels on offer.
  Whatever you manage to understand from this post, keep in mind that valid cause - effect relationship should be confirmed before starting betting . Statistically valid.
 
 
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