Author Topic: The talos seesion dump analysis  (Read 11371 times)

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Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #165 on: May 07, 2019, 03:51:28 PM »
Ok.
I will need to check a bit in practice too, but I have like months to catch up from you guys :p
And from this, and from the whole roulette (only know EC's)

And what with playing very little bets like 1-3u on something like street, you can wait for a long time, but realistic enough ? Then if you hit, you redivide the debt with last div-1 meaning you will get the same divided debt as before the hit (minus the extra units from the hit if any), if I'm not mistaken..  But after a hit you're also supposed to play less bet amount and increase (or a bit later) the selection. There is something that doesn't match, and actually looks too complex, too much in calculations for every spin. Our dear Dr. also said it's a bit crazy (I don't remember the exact word), so how can we go crazy in such process ? And keeping the whole thing simple, or not too complex at least.

 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #166 on: May 07, 2019, 04:24:51 PM »
Ya, you are on the right track.  You can always play the "best" bet, whether that means moving upward (a quad from a street) or downward (a dozen from an EC), with the idea being to get the most coverage for the least amount of money, while using the divisor; similar to a 2-way parachute system.

Check out the "Delayed Parachute" link:

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,1259.msg18664.html#msg18664

EC = Debt 1:1
DZ = 2:1
DS = 5:1
Quad = 8:1
Street = 11:1
Split = 17:1
SU = 35:1

No doubt we need a calculator.  There is a way to shortcut the process but I haven't found what it is.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 04:30:23 PM by Third »
 
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Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #167 on: May 07, 2019, 05:51:39 PM »
Thanks!

Now a very stupid question, let's say you're at 300 numbers played and still no hit. You know your hit is very late on the program... so what do you play, small bet on like a street for potentially long time, or not a small bet like on ECs ?
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #168 on: May 07, 2019, 07:27:43 PM »
Ya, I have only seen 0:300 once in my life.  Its up to each of us what our top bet amount is going to be for any selection.  Once that amount is crested, we have to move inward on the felt.  An example of a possible limit is, 1% of the remaining bankroll.
 

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #169 on: May 07, 2019, 08:14:06 PM »
I'm just trying to find a reason to have the selection increasing. 0/300 is mybe a bit overexagerated, but the idea is, linked to the variance, we can make the selection increasing/decreasing. In the end I dunno what counter-intuitive is anymore, it's a mess in my head lol. But 2 possibilities, or you make it tend to increase the closer we get to the ratio 1/60 (and fasten the game), and will tend to decrease the further we are from 1/60 (and slower the game) Or the opposite, I dunno what could be better, or even if the idea makes sense or not, also regarding small bets.

 
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punch

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #170 on: May 12, 2019, 12:44:00 AM »
Dr. Talos mentioned many times that bet selection doesn't matter.  If you were playing red or black, it would work if you were only playing red and if you analyse the same set of numbers it would work with black too.

After a bad sequence, we always eventually reach the 1:60 ratio of hitting, no matter what your bet selection.  We just don't know how many more losses we need to endure before we reach that ratio.

It's clear that Dr. Talos changes the amount of numbers he plays for each bet during his session.  Does that give him an advantage versus always selecting the same amount of numbers to play every spin?  If so, then what is the advantage?  Is it to keep the bets low? 

Can his system work with only playing EC or have I misunderstood?
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #171 on: May 12, 2019, 08:16:58 AM »
You can use the 1:60 + divisor method on EC's but Talos also said that he was using Red/Black as an example and that he doesn't play EC's exclusively.  I believe he definitely uses the increased payouts of the inside bets as part of his method to keep the costs as low as possible.

 
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Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #172 on: May 12, 2019, 04:05:17 PM »
Guys, can you please tell me what I should understand by a "fixed progression" ? Because of my English :p Does it well mean it has been defined before the game and not (necessarily) like playing the same units amount every spin?

Another question, how do you see the different levels of progression of DrTalos, philosophy wise? I still don't know how to choose between playing less numbers with less units for potentially long time, and playing more numbers with more units for less time. On top of that, not wasting units by winning more than 1 unit. I don't see the game telling me for every spin what is the best solution, I feel that I can choose too much. So I'm just nowhere, I have to admit. Could it be that each of his levels is using the same progression but limiting to a minimum of numbers played ? For ex lvl4 can play until SU, lvl3 until splits, lvl2 until streets, lvl1 until DS.

Also, how to have a logical progression defined, when for every spin the units bet are actually in function of debt and numbers played.

I can't make all the constraints match all together, and never sure which way I have to understand some words. So I feel I can be completely on wrong paths. I have too much fundamental problems and don't see anymore a start point to begin searching into one direction.
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #173 on: May 12, 2019, 07:16:37 PM »
Well, I know how I have done this but I admit that I don't have his method, I just know a way how to implement his guidelines.

You always (every spin) have to calculate the debt vs. the bet selection you wish to play.  You can do this with an excel chart if you wish.  The following factors are involved:

1) Debt
2) Total numbers bet
3) Total hits received
4) Divisor to be used

The first thing you need to know is how many times you have exceeded 60 number bet:

0-59=1 Divisor
61-119=2
120-179=3
180-239=4
240-299=5
300-360=6
etc.

You have to know how to reduce hits:numers bet to the lowest common denominator, which is always 0:X.  For example 2:125 (2 hits:125 numbers bet), breaks down to 0:62 (or 0:63 take your choice).  Now checking the chart above, you see your divisor there is 2.

Now that you know the divisor, you need to divide the debt.  So if you have 75 units of debt and your divisor is 2, this means you are betting against a debt of 38.

Now that you know the debt, you need to calculate the available selections which would be as follows:

EC=38
DZ=19
DS=7
QUAD=5
SPLIT=3
SU=2

And you choose the bet you want for that spin.  Rinse and repeat the next spin.

Talos found a way to shortcut these sorts of processes but I haven't discovered the way to do that.
 

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #174 on: May 12, 2019, 09:33:28 PM »
Thank you for replying again Third.

Quote
And you choose the bet you want for that spin.

This is my problem, what to choose, as I can find reasons to choose every possibility. But probably again that will be the special thing DrTalos found :) I try to find a clue to make me search into one direction to find out which reason will be the good one to chose in function of the context of each spin.

Concerning the divisor, I get it differently. I keep it simple, as I could understand we expect 1 hit for 60 numbers, so at 2:125, I consider 2:120 done. Remains 0:5 at divisor 1.
I don't understand what you are doing exactly to be at 0:62 ?
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #175 on: May 12, 2019, 09:49:43 PM »
LOL.  You have got me there as I wrote all this off the top of my head.  You of course are correct, that happens to be a divisor of 1 because if we get one more hit, we will have achieved better than the 1:60 ratio and the game must end, if we are following the system.

You have to determine the maximum you want to bet for any one selection.  One possible way to do this is to apply a limit of 1% of your bankroll as the top bet allowed.  That way you always know what to bet because you always bet the largest selection the cap will allow.
 

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #176 on: May 12, 2019, 10:29:56 PM »
You scared me  ;D

I'm in favor to search for something else than a % of bankroll. It's a typical way of money management, and i've done that in trading, but it doesn't suit me. Maybe debt levels, like after -100, than -200, ..
I also want to put limits on the less numbers I can bet in function of one (now undetermined) criteria. Current divisor for example.
But then I still have possibilities to choose from, when I want only one, for units and for selection. I just don't want to have doubt when I choose something, then regret taking the bad option. I want to find a system telling me exactly what to do.. so I can blame it, not me :p
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #177 on: May 13, 2019, 01:37:13 AM »
Well, that's the challenge of it that Talos offers us; to chart our own path through our own efforts to achieve our goals.  I don't think there is anything wrong with a 1% cap but I know that there must be other ways to approach it, like you suggested.
 

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #178 on: May 24, 2019, 05:53:52 PM »
I come back with this part of the dump here below, looking for a confirmation.
If I see correctly, in his first incorrect post, DrTalos mentionned on the whole session the max exposition was 182 units. But later on the fixed post, he didn't mentionned it anymore. Does it mean that statement is still valid or no ? I hope it's no, as otherwise, I don't see how we can't reach -182 without virtual bets nor differential nor SU
to achieve game closed with one hit next 10 spins  :-[

Quote
Played at this point 438 numbers, and 3 more hits. Exposure at 119. At this point, if I hit one more number in the next 10 spins, the game is over. Didn't happen.
8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9
11
1
5
17
10
16
11
22
33
33
This section added 168 numbers played, and granted me some more hit. Outstanding balance at this very point is 140.

Thank you !
 
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Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #179 on: May 25, 2019, 03:59:57 AM »
I certainly can't help here.  That session dump he did only confused me.  Hopefully he will answer in some way as I think at least your question about the dollar amount is reasonable. :)