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Author Topic: The talos seesion dump analysis  (Read 919 times)

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jerome26b

The talos seesion dump analysis
« on: November 23, 2018, 01:46:07 PM »
Hello guys it's a while i didn't post something on the forum but i continued to read some interresting topics about playing fewer numers; and it remind me last days about the session dump that MrTalos provided with a very long session. I don't know why but i was taking the challenge to try to reverse engineered it... and i was quite able to do it in fact after many hours i would say. I was able to rever ingineer the full session with the accurate number of hits in total and the total number played (roulette man did first this exercice but without the correct number played). SO based on the information MrTalos gave at that moment i was thinking that if we can in someway reverse engineer it we can maybe prove if his system is possible or not. Specially about the progression.And my first answer is that it's not possible if we take into account the info he provided and i will show you why. Here's his session dump :
18
23
4
24
28
0
15
30
20
30
15
00
25
5
30
35
15
18
32
23

At this point 258 numbers played, 3 hits

15
34
11

35
24
2
13
16
29
21
21
2
24
9

Played at this point 438 numbers, and 3 more hits. Exposure at 119. At this point, if I hit one more number in the next 10 spins, the game is over. Didn't happen.

8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9
11
1
5
17
10
16
11
22
33
33

This section added 168 numbers played, and granted me some more hit. Outstanding balance at this very point is 140.

16
27
00
34
20
9
36
22
5
32
36
6
4
6

Exposure at 162 now.

3
10
23
14
19
35
6
13
35
00
9
29
17
25
21
21Max expo of 182, profit of 16
the repetition of 21 closes the game for me.
I played 724 numbers to hit 11 numbers
I will just take into account the last 2 steps of the session as it's the most obvious to demonstrate that expo of -182 using a progression is just impossible or otherwise i would like to have your ideas :
We know at that moment that he palyed 606 numbers so only 724-606 numbers will be played in the following 2 sections so 128:So here's the only possibility i found to go to this figure
we start with exposure at -140

16 4n
27 4n
00 4n
34 4n
20 4n
9 4n
36 4n
22 4n
5 4n
32 4n
36 4n
6 4n
4 4n
6 4n

the number 6 is a hit of the natural quarter 2-3-5-6 and by chance just the point he cut this section.Because Talos was using a kind of sofisticated parachute system probably after this hit he will bet a split so 2n
But because the spin after is a no hit he raise again the selection to 4n so a quarter again until the final hit on the 21.

Exposure at 162 now.

3 2n
10 4n
23 4n
14 4n
19 4n
35 4n
6 4n
13 4n
35 4n
00 4n
9 4n
29 4n
17 4n
25 4n
21 4n
21 4n HIT
so we are at the magic number of 128 so exactly to finish at 724 number played. What he's playing is in fact irrelevant could be 4n, a quarter, or 2 splits. Now the most interresting part is about the progression. I challenge anybody that could sustain this serie using a progression with only these 2 hits starting at -140 then -162 and reaching a max exposition of -182. The best i had was an exposition of around -800 to solve the game when the 21 hit.I'm very confident with these 2 hits needed on this last section by simple calculation of what he said on the above sections. So unless i'm completely mistaken that's a kind of proof that his system is not working at least the way he pretended or with the figures he shows.
No critisism just analysis. So unless he really has a magical progression or not playing all spins (but he refuted that argument) i do not see how it can work the way he exposed this session.
kind regards,
Jérôme
 
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Mako

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2018, 06:33:14 PM »
Nice jerome, excellent work, and good to see you posting again.  :)

From what you've posted, it looks like you have it.  It matches the main points he made, and I think your conclusion is correct because in my mind the only way he could be playing this and win is if he has some sort of process for eliminating live betting spins based on an unknown criteria. 

And I would put that likelihood at 1% chance he's doing that, 99% chance he was either intentionally misleading the forum (attention-whoring, or purposely teasing without the intention of providing the missing piece necessary to figure out the process entirely), or unintentionally misleading the fourm (he had a loooooong lucky streak and mistook it for an actual edge).

A lot of sharp people really deep-dove into his postings and no one has come back with anything even close to a working method, and you taking the time to reverse engineer one of the few verifiable pieces of information he provided...and not coming up with a way to win...validates their previous lack of success.

 
 

jerome26b

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2018, 06:42:13 PM »
Thanks for your reply i can tell you i read all he posted many many times and at different moments to hope having a different view about the situation. The session dump is in fact the only full stuff he gave us to analyse and using all his clues and way he explained the way he plays (playing less numbers when hit, more when miss) i’m quite confident it’s the way he’s pretending to play but the exposition doesn’t match. I can expose my reflection later of the full session dump.

jerome.
 

leowls

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2018, 02:58:02 AM »
I'm puzzled by this sequence below with regards to his wager:


Played at this point 438 numbers, and 3 more hits. Exposure at 119. At this point, if I hit one more number in the next 10 spins, the game is over. Didn't happen.

8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9
11
1
5
17
10
16
11
22
33
33

This section added 168 numbers played, and granted me some more hit. Outstanding balance at this very point is 140.

140-119=21

If i read this explanation correctly he is wagering 21 units for 21 spins, meaning it could be 1 unit for 1 spin. If so how can he recover all if he hits a number within 10 spins? Or  could it be he is wagering cents for some spins until some trigger (he says in his cannon he waits for the tide to be a little in his favor) occurs before he puts the majority of the 21 units on certain spins. Say he wager 15 units for street and splits. The payout for these will be enough to recover and end the session with some profit. Up till now no one really knows what DrTalos' definition of weakness of the wheel is. Many have claimed they found the it (LOTT, repeaters/uniques, law of large numbers etc) but none is verified by him. So perhaps we can have a bit of discussion of what the weakness of the wheel is then his session output will make more sense for us.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 03:24:59 AM by leowls »
 
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jerome26b

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2018, 10:33:35 AM »
Hello,

i’m happy i’m not the only one analyzing the session dump and these mysteries seriously. I’m just feeling stupid not putting a thread about this before when MrTalos and Reyth were still on the forum cause i doubt MrTalos will react one day with some arguments. By the way you raised one point he said many times the weakness of the wheel that he discovered one day by just thinking in a different way and not mathematicaly. It recoup what he called probably his revolutionary and philosophical idea. I was always thinking it has nothing to do which repeat or law of the third. He said at a moment it’s a structural weakness. I tried many times to study the wheel and table layout to find a kind of weakness that can be exploited but whithout any more success.
Back to the session dump the section you exposed with the only one hit needed to close the session is a very problematic one as well in the analysis cause it means in this 10 spins session it could stay inside his 1/60 ration so on average not more than 6 numbers per spin. After these 10 spins we are again over the ratio and 2 hits are needed so he can reduce the bet and probably raise a bit the selection. In this section on my analyse he was playing mainly the last hit streets. Max 3 streets and when get a hit play last street only to try to close the game. If no hit play last 2 then last 3 to expand the selection. That way i arrived to fit perfectly which the amount of number played on that section. But the first hit in the 10 spins remain a mystery for me. I did all the analysis considering the trigger play the last outcomes and it worked globally well like you can see in my last section analysis. But maybe he changed trigger at some moments. The only occurence that is NOT appearing in this 10 spin section is the hit of the double street 6, so maybe for 10 spins he selected this DS, that fits the 60 numbers played to stay in the ratio exactly. Like he said sélection is not important we can play anything and it win at the end. Regarding the progression that’s the most mystery part like you say too. The only possibility to have so low exposure should be to play little pennies on some spins and big bet on some others. But that way how can he guarantee the respect of his 1/60 ratio ?  And what happen when his bet with pennies win again and again ? it lead to some nonsense like he has a system that can predict in some way the outcome and bet bigger on these bets whose completely nonsense.

jerome
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 11:04:25 AM by jerome26b »
 

jerome26b

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2018, 01:38:57 PM »
Regarding this particular section :
Played at this point 438 numbers, and 3 more hits. Exposure at 119. At this point, if I hit one more number in the next 10 spins, the game is over. Didn't happen.

8
24
11
14
1
26
21
8
14
11
9
11
1
5
17
10
16
11
22
33
33

This section added 168 numbers played, and granted me some more hit. Outstanding balance at this very point is 140.If we take the exposure at -119 at the beginning it's impossible to not go beyond -182 in the next 10 spins except if he's playing only one number. But he said he's never playing one number or straight numbers.Let's say we play one number at the beginning and try to finish the game if one number hit:start -119
8 -123
24 -127
11 -131
14 -135
1 -139
26 -143
21 -148 play 5 units/number to stay positive if hit
8 -153
14 -158
11 -163 end of 10 spins/ no hit

So at this very moment we are already at -163 but he said max exposure at -182 and no straight numbers. SO it's mathematical proof what he exposed is simply impossible.
I will not extend much in the analysis cause already 2 sections proved MrTalos makes fool of us if we consider this session dump. So again without critisim there's some ways :
- Either he had never his supposed HG and tried to find here some information and like i said many times trying that we work for him to solve the puzzle.- Either he had something but at the end played a game to push us in the wrong direction and this session dump proved that.
Something is anoying me from the start is the fact his system that was supposed HG changed so many times; if you remember at the begining it was 2 even chances then 24 number bet for the next 8 bets; at the end it was parachute system 2 times EC then dozen then probably DS. So how is it possible to have an HG and the same HG pushing to the completely reverse direction?
I would say i'm glad i did this last piece of effort in the session dump cause i had always a kind of belief that maybe he really got something and i didn't pushed enough to solve the trick but now i'm 100% sure i can forget about all this DrTalos mystery that makes me work hundreds of hours trying to solve the trick. I would say it was very frustrating but at the end it permited me to do the full lifecycle around the game. I'm really conviced now that the game can't be solved by any system, i mean using a "manageable" bankroll not thousands units and a decent amount of time at the table not waiting for hours that a very rare occurence will come. Virtual loss, playing cold, repeaters, sections hot or not etc. For the people that still believe a system can crack the game with a bankroll of let's say max 500 units i can provide you a set of live 4000 consecutive spins and if you are able to survive at the end and be positive you'll be my hero.

Jérôme
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 02:19:50 PM by jerome26b »
 

leowls

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2018, 04:03:39 PM »
I applaud your fighting spiriting in trying to reverse engineer his system. I too spent many hours trying to do that. I'm not sure if he is a liar but I give him the benefit of doubt. It's his system that instill a belief in me that roulette can be a profitable game for players if they can find a system that exploits the weakness of the wheel (if there is one).

Quote
Something is anoying me from the start is the fact his system that was supposed HG changed so many times; if you remember at the begining it was 2 even chances then 24 number bet for the next 8 bets; at the end it was parachute system 2 times EC then dozen then probably DS. So how is it possible to have an HG and the same HG pushing to the completely reverse direction?

He mentioned he often tweaked his system to maximize his winnings. I think both progressions you stated do not really matter in the early stage of it.

Lately I have been testing with the "repeater/unique" system (because of the belief roulette can be profitable that Talos' system instilled in me) in a 37 cycles spin and it proves to be profitable but problem is i can spend hundreds of spins to recover my initial loss. My average daily winnings range from 100 - 400 in about 300 spins taken from any tables at permanenzen.westspiel.de. If can be physically exhausting to keep track of your numbers. I hope others can contribute what they have gotten out of this hints and clues.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 04:06:27 PM by leowls »
 

jerome26b

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2018, 04:19:49 PM »
what i would like to say is just there’s many contradictions about what he pretended and the reality and this session is a clear example of the contradictions. He can say everything he will not be able to prove that from last sections he can be in positive with so few hits and number played without going beyond -182 exposition it’s just mathematically impossible except if we take in consideration that he has special power to predict the outcome of a Spin.
I know what you’re saying about long sessions i was able to develop some systems that can pass long sequences but with two main issues : either it require too much money to put on the table but if we don’t do it it means longer sessions when a recovery is needed. I remember i used the last 3 streets for a system doing a kind of positive progression like the one MrTalos used with 2 dozens and that you used if i remember well on EC. It always recovered by i had a session where the recovery took like 240 spins and went to -1400. It’s quite impossible to play this kind of system. Recently the best systems i got but with imperfections and long shot winning are stacking systems with a stop loss and steps to recover the step-1 loss. It can hold up for a long time until i hit the full x steps progression which can be a big loss. These system can give some profit but need very long time at the table. And they give profit less that 1 unit/spin with a bankroll needed of 1000-1500 units and life professional bankroll of at least 5000 units in case of back to back complete loss (very unlikely to happen by the way).

jerome. 
 
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leowls

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2018, 05:20:43 PM »
Yeah you are right....long session and a big bankroll isnt good for any players....Is it safe to conclude now that his system is a scam and we should go on and develop other systems? Or will you still work on this case? For me I will still use some of his canons to enhance existing systems.
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 05:34:13 PM by leowls »
 
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jerome26b

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2018, 07:38:25 PM »
based on all these elements i’m sorry to go to conclusion that it’s a scam. And i’m very sorry for that cause it’s was very seducting and i really liked the way he bring some considerations. So yes time to move on i think.

jerome.
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2018, 01:25:51 AM »
I can't say I have read the whole thread but he is only person I ever came across who speaks about numbers bet and hits received in a ratio.
 

leowls

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2018, 04:20:29 AM »
Yes i think his system is based on the concept that every number has its due. If u wager with some numbers consistently you are bound to hit them all at some point to to profit.
 

Third

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2018, 09:03:26 AM »
I believe I have discovered how he does it!  He uses a variant of the Alcohn method, creating a debt reserve and then with each reduction in the divisor, he rolls in a percentage of the reserve debt, using the profit generated from the hit to pay for some of the debt.  It is possible to roll funds in and out of this debt reserve as much as is necessary until 60:1 finally arrives.
 
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leowls

Re: The talos seesion dump analysis
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2018, 11:53:24 AM »
Do u have a link that method of play? I cant seem to find it online.