Author Topic: The Dozen Drive  (Read 8652 times)

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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2018, 03:32:50 PM »
Third, The progression I worked out to bet the full dozen is as follows:
A. 1, 2, 3, 4.
B. 2, 4, 6, 8.
C. 3, 6, 9, 12.
D. 4, 8, 12, 16.
E, 5, 10, 15, 20.

Start from the top (A) and move down on a loss. Remain on new level until you reach a new high then begin from step "A" again.

This can eat into your bankroll if you experience a number of sporadic losses before you reach a new high so it is important to monitor your games closely.

My session goals are small and I rarely get to step "c". Each session produces surplus wins that are used to counter a loss when it happens.
 
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rimsky

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2018, 03:43:43 PM »
MickyP,

roulette live online is a real roulette with a croupier. I play one in streaming with hundreds of players connected.
Although I know they can cheat switching off the connection, the roulette in use is a mechanical device just like the one in a B/M casino. Or am I wrong?

Anyway I have a huge collection of actual "permanences" from several casinos I'll check them out with the dozen drive.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 03:51:22 PM by rimsky »
 

palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2018, 05:37:15 PM »

@Palestis, I have tried to copy your system but the challenge is (at bmc) I am not finding 2 XY LLL in a row, or may be just this session, I will go again and check but have to wait for 2 in row is already rare for me and time consuming. Now what to do, please guide. Thanks.
Love and Light,SugTips
Well,  that shows that the system by itself has a high hit rate.
And y shouldn't it?
At 33% chance for a hit, it's natural to see a hit in the next 4 spins.
But it is the anomalies, like variance, that messes things up, and you have to make provisions for it.
When you only stay at one table at a BM+M casino it's not easy to find back to back losses. It has to be more tables under observation.
What I do is this.
When I look at a score board, I go back 5 numbers from the last number showing.
If I see for example 25,15, 32,18,30 as the last 5 numbers spun, I know that there is already 1 loss (virtual). XY= 25,15. and the Z did not appear in 3 spins.
When that happens I make a note of that roulette table and wait (while reading other score boards),
to see if the next XY produces 3 failed spins.
While I am waiting for that I look at other tables and go back reading more than 5 numbers.
If I happen to see  13,5,22,9, 20, 8, 10, 28,1,30,4, here is how I process those numbers in my head.
The first trigger (13,5), lost the 3 spins when 22,9,20, showed up.
The next trigger is 10,28, which also lost when 1,30,4 showed up. At this point I have 2 virtual losses.
If the next number that will spins it's either a 2nd or 3rd dozen , then I have a trigger which I will play with real money.
But I have decided in advance not to use numbers that were included in the thinking process.
Because 20,8 was a trigger and won when 28 came. But 20,8 were part of the previous playable trigger and therefore they don't count. I use fresh numbers so I don't get confused.
It is a tedious process and puts your brain's functions to the limit.
        An easier way is to take the last 2 numbers of as many roulette tables as you can see.
Then watch the tables that have a trigger XY. Then stand by to see if any of those tables will produce losses (virtual).
That way you don't get confused going back reading numbers. You watch them as they develop in front of your eyes.
 
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SugTips

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2018, 05:56:43 PM »
Thank you Palestis,

Actually I don't trust on scoreboard at our local casinos, they cheat a lot by inserting fake numbers. And when complain to them, they say it's a glitch in system.
 

MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2018, 07:36:34 PM »
MickyP,

roulette live online is a real roulette with a croupier. I play one in streaming with hundreds of players connected.
Although I know they can cheat switching off the connection, the roulette in use is a mechanical device just like the one in a B/M casino. Or am I wrong?

Anyway I have a huge collection of actual "permanences" from several casinos I'll check them out with the dozen drive.

Maybe I'm old school but I don't trust electronics in roulette.

Is the image you see constant or does it cut from a view of the whole table, wheel and croupier to a closeup of the wheel where you can see the ball bounce and land in the number. If there is any cut in the image on the screen then the results can be manipulated to the casinos benefit.
The casino will have closeups of the ball spinning and landing in each number so to program the "winning" number according to bets on the table is easy to do.
I know about video productions and editing so if there is a cut (change of image from a wide shot to a closeup in this case) then chances are good that the casino is taking you for a ride.

I could be wrong but how to explain the difference in electronic based outcomes compared to manual B/M table results?
 

Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2018, 07:55:14 PM »
The progression I worked out to bet the full dozen is as follows:
A. 1, 2, 3, 4.
B. 2, 4, 6, 8.
C. 3, 6, 9, 12.
D. 4, 8, 12, 16.
E, 5, 10, 15, 20.

Start from the top (A) and move down on a loss. Remain on new level until you reach a new high then begin from step "A" again.

Any attempt on a single dozen for 4 total betting spins on a Euro wheel has an expected hit/win rate of 79.2%.

The second attempt on a single dozen for 4 spins (8 total betting spins) on a Euro wheel rises to an expected hit/win rate of 95.7%.

So if you use Micky's ABCDE progression above (following his reset-on-high advice), and bet only after a single virtual loss each time, you're looking at a strong probability of doing well if a more outlier type of black swan variance doesn't strike...

And as Micky said, by the time it does, you're likely ahead enough to cover that poor session anyway.
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2018, 07:58:02 PM »
If a sleeping dozen was the norm I would not have started this thread. A sleeping dozen is rather the exception.
It is normal to have: 1) A dominant Dozen, 2) A secondary dominant Dozen, 3) A sleeping Dozen.  There are brief periods where they may change roles and can be indistinguishable one from the other but the 3 roles are the norm for all spin sequences.
 

MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2018, 08:57:20 PM »
Third, let's say your labeling of the three dozens is correct; what are the detailed characteristics of a sleeping dozen. If it fails to appear in three spins according to probability then is it characterized as a sleeping dozen? What is the average sleep pattern of a sleeping dozen?
These may seem like silly questions but the high hit rate indicates that there is a degree of fuzziness around the parameters of a sleeping dozen.

The labeling of the dozens (as you named them) to me is for pure simple identification according to the position they appear in a sequence of spins. The last to appear is the sleeping dozen...

Please elaborate and if you can I'll like to hear your answers to the questions I asked in this post. Thanks.
 

Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2018, 10:31:17 PM »
Ok let me put it this way: There will be a Dozen that hits above expectation, a Dozen that hits less often than the first Dozen and a Dozen that hits less than the second Dozen.  Its that 3rd Dozen which will always be sleeping; that is, hitting less than expectation.
 

Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2018, 10:36:02 PM »
First test, used live spins from Westbank Duisburg, single table.  As if you got there when they opened, you sat down, and you played continuously at that same table.  306 spins total. I used Micky's progression above (ABCDE) but also added an F level as it wound up being needed.

The bet selection rules followed were identical to Micky's first post, in addition, no virtual losses were used for this run.  It was simply XY, bet for Z...vanilla.

Breakdown:

107 - Total triggers played (XY, bet for Z to arrive within 4 spins).

91 - Triggers Won (85.0% overall win rate, better than expected probability of 79.2%)
16 - Triggers Lost

0 - Back to Back losses (I had chop, but no back to back Ls)

24 - Longest trigger win streak (24 triggers were hit in a row, between spins 28 and 82. Also had a 21 win streak later on)

F - Highest progression level reached (from spins 86 to 142 ran into chop which pushed progression higher: L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-L-W-W-L)

7 - Betting spins it took at progression level F to recover fully (Level F betting = 6u,12u,18u,24u)

+150 - Net Profit (units won, base bet = 1u)

Miscellaneous Notes:

Nothing can be gleaned from such a small sample. Interestingly, of the 16 trigger attempts that didn't hit by spin 4 (losses), eight of them DID hit at spin 5.

We don't bet spin 5 of course, it's just something that showed up that is worthy of watching moving forward, might be worth it to add that spin.

Otherwise it went as you'd expect, very little drama.  The chop is annoying but expected, but I was surprised at no B2B losses. It shows how difficult a B2B is to achieve (B2B loss probability is only 4.3%).
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 10:40:48 PM by Mako »
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2018, 10:55:03 PM »
Ok let me put it this way: There will be a Dozen that hits above expectation, a Dozen that hits less often than the first Dozen and a Dozen that hits less than the second Dozen.  Its that 3rd Dozen which will always be sleeping; that is, hitting less than expectation.

I know what you're getting at, and the short answer is: It doesn't matter.

In the set above, the dozens came in like this 94 / 111 / 94.

In looking at the 16 losses they were split nearly equally, there wasn't a significant advantage for the triggers that happened to be on the second dozen versus the other two.

You'd think there would be, but there isn't.  And the reason for that is because you're taking 4 shots at any given dozen at any given time, meaning even the lowest performing dozen is likely "hot" for a bit, and the best performing dozen is likely "cold" multiple times within the larger set also.

You can play however you wish of course, but I didn't feel what you were alluding to was going to impact the actual result before I tested, and after seeing it play out, I still feel that way.

Good thought, but unnecessary (so far...we'll see how it goes as more testing occurs).
 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #41 on: November 17, 2018, 12:35:37 PM »
Mako, thank you for publishing your test results. The results are consistent with my findings over thousands of spins tested. Having said this I have moved on from using the basic tool to bet on a full dozen. I use the tool to simply identify a dozen target and I only play selected numbers in the dozen based on other criteria revealed in spin history and table trends. The idea is to minimize the amount of numbers played thus maximizing payout based on the 35-1 odds.

This continues to be work in progress.
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #42 on: November 17, 2018, 02:22:05 PM »
Oh aha, Corners then...
 

MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #43 on: November 17, 2018, 03:04:48 PM »
What pays 35-1? Corners?

Pay ATTENTION in class!.....lol
 
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Mako

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #44 on: November 17, 2018, 06:55:41 PM »
Mako, thank you for publishing your test results. The results are consistent with my findings over thousands of spins tested. Having said this I have moved on from using the basic tool to bet on a full dozen. I use the tool to simply identify a dozen target and I only play selected numbers in the dozen based on other criteria revealed in spin history and table trends. The idea is to minimize the amount of numbers played thus maximizing payout based on the 35-1 odds.

This continues to be work in progress.

Nice Micky, it really is a nice foundation...easy to pair it with almost any other inside bet selection method, say betting for any number within the Z dozen that has shown up (or already repeated even) on the marquee for the hot number crowd.  Or similarly betting any number that has already shown up on the marquee plus that numbers' wheel neighbors (pairing), so long as they're in the Z dozen.

I like it, will continue to test the base dozen method and see what it shows in terms of other possibilities.