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Author Topic: The Dozen Drive  (Read 23632 times)

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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2018, 06:53:26 AM »
The probability values that Mako shared earlier in the thread are a good indicator of a potentially viable method of play that can be developed from the Dozen Drive approach.

The trick now is to look at bet selection (the whole dozen if you must), progressions, money management and all other aspects that "glue" a method together so it can be played at a B/M table with confidence.

I look forward to contributions from members in the handout queue. As Mr J (Ken) politely put it "I throw scraps now and then"... such a funny guy!
 

rimsky

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #16 on: November 15, 2018, 07:39:54 AM »
I made a couple of extensive sessions with this "dozen drive" and I wish to share my impressions.
I tested it on RNG with 0,10€ chip
Bankroll: 10€
Results after two sessions: +120% bankroll

Play on single dozen.Trigger: after XY we bet Z for 4 spins.If Z missed the 4 spins we stop betting and wait until Z hits. Then we bet Z again for 4 spins.

Progression:
1123
4567
789T
11-12-13-14etc.

Okay, the system seems to work because it has a great basic idea: strange, wacky number clusters don't come in long multiple back to back sequences.In my test the Z dozen slept very often 15/16 spins, but we bet only the first four. That's the big point hit by MickyP and Palestis. Because when Z appears again, after let's say 16 spins missed, we bet it again for 4 spins and IT HITS. Almost always in the first trigger of 4 but if not in the next.The worst scenario in my (limited but promising) tests was that: Z dozen missed for 7 spins, then appeared once, then missed again for 14 spins, then appeared again, and we hit. Could it miss again for another long sequence? I think it can't, even for the hellish device which is roulette, but if it does miss again, again we bet only the first four and then wait.
Because of that, I think we could skip the first part of the system (betting Z in continous after every XY) because in this first part Z does miss rather often, and instead we should focus on betting Z only after a long sequence of XY with a four step progression and larger units.

Anyway the big point of this thread in my view is that it points at a crucial direction: hellish sequences can happen and do happen (they are the main killers of our systems), but can they happen in several multiple back to back situations?

My two cents.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 07:52:36 AM by rimsky »
 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #17 on: November 15, 2018, 11:12:37 AM »
Thank you for the contribution Rimsky. Glad to see you have made an effort to look at and test this tool.
Two things:
One: I know the tool will have very different outcomes when used on RNG and B/M tables. If you can find the sweet spot to make it work on RNG it will be great but I do have my reservations about this.
Two: Looking at red flags; when Z misses on the fourth spin, stop betting until Z appears. On a loss Z becomes a red flag as the presumption is that Z has fallen asleep. In the next game if Z is the target dozen again then this game should be played "virtually" (no cash bets). This gives time in spins for normal probability/expectation to return. If the numbers that appear indicate an anomaly then play virtual until normal distribution resumes.
Always look at recent past spins (about 12 spins) just to see that there is "normal" distribution between the dozens. This is not a guarantee that the trend will continue but it does rule out the possibility of starting a game in the middle of an anomaly.
I hope this line of thought helps you.
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2018, 04:10:38 PM »
I think multiple failures that are spread apart, in any way, can be combined to make one big statistical picture.  Each hit that is considered makes the misses "weaker", requiring more misses to "make up for it".  A general base of "0 hits over 40 spins" will always apply, where each hit will "reduce" the number of spins experienced.  I can only strenuously agree that a method must be used that allows for at least drastic reduction of bet amounts during loss streaks is required to be successful long term.
 

palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2018, 07:52:30 PM »
I went to the casino yesterday and the system worked flawlessly.
But here is how I play it. ( I use 3 bets instead of 4 due to the high minimum).
The minimum was $15.
What I am looking for is an XY trigger that losses 3 times  ( XY LLL).
Then I am also looking for the next consecutive trigger at the same table that also losses 3 times.
( XY LLL,    XY ,LLL 2 times in a row).
Next time I see XY then and only then I place up to 3 real money bets.
Because from testing, 3 back to back trigger failures are very rare.
Below are some numbers from the session, to use as an example of how I played it.
After 2 back to back lost triggers, the third trigger won.
Of course there were many winning opportunities lost, but I ignore them .
Because I know that at some point I might run into 2-3 lost triggers, or maybe 4 in a rare occasion.
When that happens (and it will happen), the session has to stop because it will require a high bet amount to continue the progression steps.
And that's a risk most players would not take. But they will lose whatever they lost so far.
Anyway playing it that way, you can be assured that you will win every session you play.
And also you don't need to watch out for possible red flags. Which delay the session.
But you have to be able to observe several roulettes to find these conditions I described.

« Last Edit: November 15, 2018, 08:41:23 PM by palestis »
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2018, 12:38:35 AM »
Wow.  This got me thinking and I came up with the following statistics:
54.35% = single XY event
90.49% = chance of hitting within 4 bets
7 = maximum repeats in a row of failure to repeat
1 0.086044875   1 in 11.63
2 0.008179125   1 in 122.25
3 0.00077775   1 in 1285.76
4 0.0000720625 1 in 13888.89
5 0.0000076875 1 in 130081.30
6 0.000001125   1 in 888888.89
7 0.000000125   1 in 8000000
It doesn't look like 6 or 7 repeats is likely to be seen in a person's lifetime, so a progression would need to be crafted that can reasonably survive 5 failures in a row, hitting on the 6th attempt.  This wouldn't seem hard to do.
 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2018, 01:19:19 AM »
Positive Progression?
 

palestis

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2018, 03:18:22 AM »
Wow.  This got me thinking and I came up with the following statistics:
54.35% = single XY event
90.49% = chance of hitting within 4 bets
7 = maximum repeats in a row of failure to repeat
Third
I don't quite understand what you mean by those statistics.
Do you mean that after an XY trigger the target dozen Z can only fail to appear up to 7 spins in a row?
Because this happens frequently. If fact it exceeds 7 no show spins often.
That is y we abandon after 4 failed spins and wait for a new trigger, that has a different target dozen.
        Or do you mean that you can't have  XY LLLL  7 times in a row? That is of course impossible.
By the way I had another good day at the B+M casino. Below are numbers from one table.
It may seem that the betting opportunities are very few, (missing winning opportunities), but when you observe several tables the betting opportunities are frequently available after 2 virtual losses.
It takes some practice to back read number and form combinations that resulted in triggers having lost. Especially if you got a dancing floor with deafening music right next to the tables.
That's another way American casinos make it so difficult for a player to concentrate.
They try to make losing fun. 
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 04:04:08 AM by palestis »
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2018, 05:15:45 AM »
7 = maximum repeats in a row of failure to repeathit
Third
 you can't have  XY LLLL  7 times in a row? That is of course impossible.
Well its not IMPOSSIBLE, its just extremely and very highly improbable for any of us to actually see ourselves.  I personally wouldn't factor it into a progression, which is why I said that 5 in a row should be the benchmark for survival.  Ultimately, I would like to see a bankroll about 3 times greater than would be created by a 5 in a row event.  I think this is more than easily accomplished.

Quote
American casinos make it so difficult for a player to concentrate.
They try to make losing fun.
No doubt Europeans have a better culture.  You guys already mostly know what I mean by this and therefore I don't need to explain further.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 05:26:56 AM by Third »
 

SugTips

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2018, 07:22:54 AM »
Then I am also looking for the next consecutive trigger at the same table that also losses 3 times.
( XY LLL,    XY ,LLL 2 times in a row).
Next time I see XY then and only then I place up to 3 real money bets.
Because from testing, 3 back to back trigger failures are very rare.
Thanks God and Good Morning All,
Thank You Palestis and MickyP. Thanks a lot.

@Palestis, I have tried to copy your system but the challenge is (at bmc) I am not finding 2 XY LLL in a row, or may be just this session, I will go again and check but have to wait for 2 in row is already rare for me and time consuming. Now what to do, please guide. Thanks.
Love and Light,SugTips

 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2018, 10:25:31 AM »
Thanks for your post SugTips.

Just taking one step back; I am a big fan and user of Palestis Single Dozen System. However, I modified it to suite my play style by playing 8 numbers of the 12 and playing 4 spins for each trigger.

I appreciate the manner in which Palestis approaches the Dozen Drive by playing 3 spins only and only playing after two B2B losses. Sure there is a waiting period but as you can see it's well worth the wait. If I played it like Palestis I would simply increase my chip value and after a few wins I'll be good to go with my daily target met.

What you can do is to test the basic tool/method on B/M table numbers and see the hit rate for yourself. Use this information to create a method that allows you to play more often on a single table. As you can see from Palestis numbers, B2B losses do occur but not that often, that's why using a second table helps as it speeds up the play. Always remember that the objective is to win and walk out with a profit. A realistic win/profit goal per session is advised.

Most losses seem to be isolated (sporadic single losses) and can be easily watered down or recovered with a progression. Rimsky asked a good question earlier and anyone serious enough about the Dozen Drive will look at this in developing a method suited to their play style.

There is always the risk of encountering an anomaly that will produce say 3 B2B losses so you should always be prepared for these eventualities.
 
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SugTips

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2018, 10:30:48 AM »
Ok I have got multiple times b2b virtual losses on rng.

Will test properly on bmc this weekend. Thanks Mickyp and Palestis.

 
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rimsky

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2018, 01:24:15 PM »
I keep on testing.
Now on Live Roulette online, not RNG.
0,25€ chip.
Bankroll 25€.
Last two sessions: +11,50€ and + 6,25€ (yes I know this amounts could make laugh but it's still a test phase).
Time session is about 90 minutes. Average spins per session = 140

Well, what I can see is that the sleep of a dozen is the norm. The phase wherein all three dozens hit in a few spins are the exception. An interesting point is that when the sleeping dozen awakes - after we bet it the first four spins and lost and then wait for its reappearance - almost always not only we hit in the following four spins, but the dozen itself shows multiple hits, often two or three in a row. This is a clear recurring pattern in my notes. Maybe it woud be nice to work out a betting sequence to exploit it (such a Garcia progression on dozen).

Regarding win goal/stop loss, it seems that this system could avoid sudden vertical drawdowns, but of course since we don't play a martingale progression on a single dozen but a more conservative progression we could be stuck under the profit thresold if we meet alternate winning and losing triggers at higher stages of the progression.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 01:27:00 PM by rimsky »
 
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Third

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2018, 03:07:13 PM »
Since our base chance to hit is 90% (93%), compromising with the debt seems pretty reasonable, with recoups over a few hits? Like maybe:
1 1 2 3
4 1 1 1 etc
Min betting until a hit and then choosing how many attempts to recoup the debt.  The min bets can be increased above 1 as the loss streak gets longer so that the worst single drawdown would be:
1 1 2 3 -7
4 1 2 2 -16
2 2 2 2 -24
3 3 3 3 -36
4 4 4 5 -53
5 5 6 6 -75
7 7 8 9 -106
9 10 11 -136 
12 13 13 14 -188
16 18 18 21 -261
22 = 283 units
So with a bankroll of 1000 units we should be able to negotiate through the worst.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 03:30:04 PM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: The Dozen Drive
« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2018, 03:18:23 PM »
I keep on testing.
Now on Live Roulette online, not RNG.
0,25€ chip.
Bankroll 25€.
Last two sessions: +11,50€ and + 6,25€ (yes I know this amounts could make laugh but it's still a test phase).
Time session is about 90 minutes. Average spins per session = 140

Well, what I can see is that the sleep of a dozen is the norm. The phase wherein all three dozens hit in a few spins are the exception. An interesting point is that when the sleeping dozen awakes - after we bet it the first four spins and lost and then wait for its reappearance - almost always not only we hit in the following four spins, but the dozen itself shows multiple hits, often two or three in a row. This is a clear recurring pattern in my notes.

1. 140 spins at a B/M table is a full day with 8-10 sessions. Go to the casino and spend a day recording numbers from one table only. repeat this exercise for about 5 days. Now compare the spin results with electronic based roulette games. You will report a remarkable difference between them.
2. If a sleeping dozen was the norm I would not have started this thread. A sleeping dozen is rather the exception.
3. In tests that I have conducted over several thousand spins with sequences of 200 and 500 spins each I have recorded a hit rate of between 75% and 95%. This indicates a hit within 4 spins pretty much as the norm.
4. What to do when a zero appears? Check for possible anomalies and restart from step one. If zero lands while betting then stop betting or continue and bet one extra spin, your choice.
5. The norm is 6 spins per game but the first two dozens at times take a few more spins to appear due to the first dozen repeating. The spin allocation for the third dozen to appear is double plus what probability dictates starting from spin one of the game.
6. Keep it simple - ONLY play on a B/M casino table.