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Author Topic: Using virtual play to your advantage.  (Read 2038 times)

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Mike

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 04:47:30 PM »
1. Start betting from the 1st try and keep doubling the bet after each miss. Or stop when you succeed.
2. Start from the beginning without any wager for as many tries as you like before the 10 , then start betting whenever you feel you are ready.
   What would you chose?
A. Start betting from the beginning and have the opportunity to win $20 if you succeed in the first 5 bets? (after that you don't have any more money to double the bet.  And you lost $620).
B. Use your free trials and throw the ball for 6 tries and lose, ( cost $0), then wager in the last 4 tries where success is 100%.
        The obvious choice in B.
It's a very poor example to use, and misleading, because in this case there may be dependence between throws, whereas there isn't any dependence between roulette spins. If outcomes are independent the choice of B would give no advantage at all.

And actually, some months ago I used almost the exact same analogy when comparing system play with advantage play, to make the point that advantage play (specifically, VB) is superior to systems. Whether the ball ends up in the basket or not depends only on initial physical conditions, such as the angle of the ball at the point of release, how far you are from the basket, and how hard you throw it. And if you were throwing the ball "randomly" knowing the statistics wouldn't make any difference anyway.

Quote
When you test a system long enough, you will come up with an average range of bets where at least one success is guaranteed. .
Ok, so what is the best average range of bets for an EC? A dozen?

 

scepticus

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 06:30:36 PM »
Virtual Play- Virtual LOsses - Virtual Wins- Virtual Bets - all mean the same thing , ken.  No bet is actually  made  .
 We wait for a certain event to happen - or not happen - which acts as a " trigger" to start betting .
 

palestis

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2018, 02:37:04 AM »
1. Start betting from the 1st try and keep doubling the bet after each miss. Or stop when you succeed.
2. Start from the beginning without any wager for as many tries as you like before the 10 , then start betting whenever you feel you are ready.
   What would you chose?
A. Start betting from the beginning and have the opportunity to win $20 if you succeed in the first 5 bets? (after that you don't have any more money to double the bet.  And you lost $620).
B. Use your free trials and throw the ball for 6 tries and lose, ( cost $0), then wager in the last 4 tries where success is 100%.
        The obvious choice in B.
It's a very poor example to use, and misleading, because in this case there may be dependence between throws, whereas there isn't any dependence between roulette spins. If outcomes are independent the choice of B would give no advantage at all.
No it's not a poor example. I specified 100,000 ball throws.
By then  whatever basic skill was to be gained was gained already in probably less than 10,000 tries.
Beyond that and considering the great distance (where skill is not as important as the strength to reach the basket area), all throws can be considered independent. You can have the wrong angle and still get the ball in. You can have the right posture and still miss it. It is the distance that makes each throw an independent event. (even if you were Michael Jordan).
The point is all events have an average of the desired outcome.  And neither roulette events can escape the power of  averages. Independence is a plus rather than a barrier as far as averages are concerned.
It's no wonder that everything comes to equilibrium given a certain number of spins.
Roulette has 37 numbers, and what happens between spins has to account to an average.
Which is computable.
If a wheel had 150 numbers you'd be seeing 20 and 30 red in a row much more often than when you see it with 37 numbers.
At the same time if you had 2 balls in a bag, one red one black, pulling one at time and replacing it, chances are you will very rarely see 8 black in a row, but in roulette you see it often.
It is therefore the duty of the player to study the average statistical behavior of his particular system.
Then and only then he can gain the much sought after EDGE.
Ok, so what is the best average range of bets for an EC? A dozen?
it depends on the bet:
If the bet is totally random and changeable between spins, a randomly picked EC ( in every spin),  should appear in  the range of 1-5 spins. Try it and see if you can lose 5 times in a row.
A randomly chosen dozen (in every spin) should have a range between 1 and 8 spins to appear.
Now if the bet is biased (like a specific same EC or a specific same dozen that depends on a trigger, things are different.
It has a lot to do with what that trigger is. So there is no general answer unless you specify the trigger. 
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 02:43:07 AM by palestis »
 

Mike

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2018, 11:33:04 AM »
If a wheel had 150 numbers you'd be seeing 20 and 30 red in a row much more often than when you see it with 37 numbers.
At the same time if you had 2 balls in a bag, one red one black, pulling one at time and replacing it, chances are you will very rarely see 8 black in a row, but in roulette you see it often.
This is completely false and is easily disproved. The ONLY thing which determines the length of streaks is the probability, and the probability doesn't change if there are more ways of getting a certain outcome, as long as the outcomes are symmetrical. If there are 150 numbers on the wheel, half red, half black, the probability of red or black is 75/150 = 0.5, which is exactly the same as on a standard wheel (ignoring zero). i.e. 18/36 = 0.5.

Quote
If the bet is totally random and changeable between spins, a randomly picked EC ( in every spin),  should appear in  the range of 1-5 spins. Try it and see if you can lose 5 times in a row.
This is an arbitrary number. Why 5 times? Obviously the wider the range the more chance of getting at least one hit.

Sure, averages are important. The house edge determines what happens, ON AVERAGE. You can't side step averages by using virtual losses in an attempt to remove the negative variance because in the very attempt to do that you are NECESSARILY also removing the POSITIVE variance. The net effect is that NOTHING has changed in terms of variance; the "reaction" cancels out your action.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 11:39:35 AM by Mike »
 
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mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2018, 01:29:33 PM »
"You can't side step averages by using virtual losses in an attempt to remove the negative variance because in the very attempt to do that you are NECESSARILY also removing the POSITIVE variance" >>

10000000000000% correct Mike.
 

mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2018, 01:53:53 PM »
@Mike >> Just wait till "they" start their threads regarding playing hit-n-run tactics. You'll be quite busy posting.

Ken
 

palestis

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 02:44:53 PM »
That's where you both are very wrong.
NEGATIVE variance costs a hell of a lot of more money (most players use progression as they lose), than POSITIVE variance when most players use the same unit value.
A streak of 10 black (positive variance),  profits $100 if you play black and use $10 chips..
But a streak of 10 red when you bet on black (negative variance) costs a player $1023.
And you call them the same?, By canceling out each other?
How do you counter this simple example a 5 year old can understand?
You guys must be playing roulette with either beans, peanuts or rice pieces.
Where the rest of us are playing with our hard earned money.
It is absurd to use NUMBERS only and disregard VALUES.
No wonder none of the negative posters have never been able to come up with real life examples.
Where a lot of system posters present graphs and excel sheets or practical examples proving their point.

« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 03:07:58 PM by palestis »
 
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mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2018, 03:01:57 PM »
"No wonder none of the negative posters have never been able to come up with real life examples" >>

ROFL, I live it buddy. Been there, done that. Yourself and maybe six others here, I would love to see you implement your "ideas" at a B&M where the men play at. And after ALL the waiting and virtual this & that, your *NET* profit (if any) at the END of your visit. BR available, enough TIME to place bets, the dealer possibly giving you a hard time, any calculations, min & max bets at the table, getting booted from the table for NOT betting (others need your spot) etc.

Ken
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 03:21:27 PM by mr j »
 

palestis

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2018, 03:12:50 PM »
In case you don't know in most casinos in Europe you can bet at the same time in as many tables as you like. At the same time I can buy in color chips in many tables and I can alternate playing  each table with the color it belongs to. No pressure to make every bet.
I have been in casinos where with color I can wait 1/2 hour to bet if  I want to. it doesn't matter if other people are standing up waiting to take a seat.
In US casinos you can't play in more than one table. With color chips or cash chips. They strictly forbid it. And that's on top of the 00.
Is that why you keep talking about time to bet?
And y you didn't comment on my example of positive and negative variance, and twisted the subject to something else?
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 03:28:56 PM by palestis »
 

mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2018, 03:23:01 PM »
"and I can alternate playing  each table" >> That will NOT benefit you in any fashion.
 

palestis

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2018, 03:35:39 PM »
Saying and proving it are 2 different things.
But the question of pos. and neg. variance  two posts above remains unanswered.
Scepticus has noticed this subject avoidance by some posters, when there in no ability to answer.
I begin to notice it too.
 

mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2018, 03:37:19 PM »
You can put chocolate on dog s**t but its still dog s**t. Sorry mate.  8)
 

palestis

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2018, 03:41:59 PM »
Very nice in a stand up comedy show.
Roulette is not a comedy show. Facts thru examples do matter.
Lack of it forces comedy.
 
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mr j

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2018, 03:47:13 PM »
I have ten times more ***EXPERIENCE*** than you will ever have. Real world, in real time, real situations, real casinos etc. You couldn't come close to my learning tactics & past hardships with this game. I have learned tough lessons with ACTUAL money. Not neato nifty ideas that look swell on paper.
 

Mike

Re: Using virtual play to your advantage.
« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2018, 03:57:07 PM »
NEGATIVE variance costs a hell of a lot of more money (most players use progression as they lose), than POSITIVE variance when most players use the same unit value.
The progression is irrelevant, because the point is that your virtual bets don't affect the net number of wins and eliminate losses, which is the reason for using them in the first place.

And if the solution hinges on the kind of progression you use (which is what you're saying), then you're actually recognizing that the virtual bets are useless. If they were any good you wouldn't need to use a progression at all. And you don't HAVE to use a negative progression; it's far more sensible to use a positive one (it won't help you to win in the long term, but you'll minimize the losses).

You're never going to win the argument using logic and math; that's impossible. I've already asked you twice to show us the math, but you've ignored me. Your only hope is to give us some empirical evidence that virtual bets work (and not just a few screenshots of weisbaden spins).
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 04:01:01 PM by Mike »
 
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