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Author Topic: The sure thing!  (Read 1621 times)

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BlueAngel

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The sure thing!
« on: October 14, 2018, 09:14:06 PM »
Hello everyone, do you want to know how you could make a fortune with sports betting?
Now you have the magnificent opportunity to take it in your hands for 1 low price of 9.99!!!
So what are you waiting for, get your cards out of the wallet and make the life changing move now!
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2018, 09:36:30 PM »
Let's cut the crap, I want to speak seriously now.

There are not 1 but 2 ways to ALWAYS win, by saying win I'm not talking about winning every bet, not about predicting more accurately than not, I'm talking about the SURE profit at the end of every bet leg.

There is the known traditional arbitrage in which you are backing ALL possible outcomes but due to selecting the highest odds available you are making a profit regardless of what is going to happen.

The casinos are doing some kind of arbitrage by offering lower payouts and they expect that sooner or later this will be materialized, they don't really care about who's winning as long as they are receiving a fixed cut of the total action.

The not known way of SURE profit is exactly the opposite of backing every possibility of an event, this means to lay ALL possible odds at the lowest possible odds.

You can apply either or both methods according the odds situation, if for a specific event the total odds are kind of low then you should look for LAYING/SELLING ALL odds.
If are trending high you should TAKE/BACK/BUY ALL odds.

At the end of the day it's impossible not to found at least 1 to 2 such situations.
You could also use bonuses in such way till their wagering requirements being fulfilled, even if your total return is a bit lower than 100% it is still profit because are not your money, are bonus money.

Another thing one could do is to register as a referral and customer simultaneously, by doing this you will receive from 40% up to 60% back on the total loss of your registered clients, in such case you!
Therefore the overall profit from either trade is increasing significantly!

The bad thing is that bookies are aware and ban you and in order to make good profit you need much more money.

Perhaps this topic is more revelant with trading rather than sports betting, so Kav feel free to port it if you dimmed it necessary.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2018, 10:13:02 PM »
Lay bets are available on sports exchangers such as Betfair, by laying it means I'm betting against something to happen.

For example on the game of Craps we could lay each number which rolls, for example the first roll is 4, now we would lay 4 to coming before a 7 rolls.

All other numbers are neutral, but let's say that we do the same for every number which rolls.
In order to lose a number from 4 up to 10 has to roll 2 times before a 7 rolls 1 time.
It's not only that every number has less possibility than 7 to roll first, it's also about that it already rolled once and 7 none.

But let's say that a couple of numbers roll twice before a 7 rolls, we would lose 2 times and according to the numbers which rolled we would have several lay bets per number open.
While 1 loss takes 1 roll to occur, thus there must be many rolls without 7 for many losses, it takes only 1 roll with a 7 to win ALL LAY bets!

Numbers 4 and 10 have 3 ways to roll
Numbers 5 and 9 have 4 ways to roll
Numbers 6 and 8 have 5 ways to roll
Number 7 has 6 ways, the most from any other number, thus every roll has more probability for number 7.

But if you would bet Don't Pass, every 1st roll has the 7 against it, that's why it's not recommended to bet Don't Pass and Don't Come because the rule of the 1st roll negates the better possibility which you would have just by laying anytime anything!

So laying is like selling in trading terms, backing is buying, both could be a profit or a loss, it's all about how you are using them.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2018, 10:58:07 PM »
Middles are not like arbitrage, they guarantee a no loss but not a profit.
Thus in the worst situation are returning your money back and in the best are providing profit.
Mario Puzzo, the "Godfather" director and his brother back on 70's were using "middles" extensively, it's being said that they've made a lot of profit this way.

A kind of financial arbitrage is to get credit with low interest, then invest it in a fixed/terms account (no risk involved) and keep the difference between the credit and the terms account.

For banks within the same country such situation is not possible, but if you combine banks from different countries it is possible.
Tax office cannot tax money which originated by credit/loan (by law).

Arbitrage is being known as "Dutching" as well.
 

solaris

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2018, 05:47:24 AM »
Sports arbitrage requires at least 10 accounts at different exchanges and they stay only for limited amount of time. You may require someone who searches it for you, such as service offered by rebelbetting. In addition, you get banned from some of them as they know that you are on arbitrage.

Financial arbitrage can work within same currency countries. I am not sure if some country within EU offers higher rate at all.

Developing countries with other currencies have usually high interest rates, but their inflation is high and currency degrades at higher rate.

 

Mike

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2018, 07:42:29 AM »
The not known way of SURE profit is exactly the opposite of backing every possibility of an event, this means to lay ALL possible odds at the lowest possible odds.
This is by no means a sure thing and it's certainly not in the same league as arbitrage.

Quote
Arbitrage is being known as "Dutching" as well.
No, dutching is the technique of betting for multiple outcomes on the same event such that you make a profit if any of your selections win, and is certainly not a sure thing.
What most sports bettors fail to understand is the concept of a value bet (and roulette system players also fail to understand it, big time). A value bet is one in which there is a mismatch between the probability of a win and the odds on offer. Betting on random outcomes, cannot by definition offer any value because the payouts are too short, given the probability of a win.
 
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BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2018, 08:56:49 AM »
Sports arbitrage requires at least 10 accounts at different exchanges and they stay only for limited amount of time. You may require someone who searches it for you, such as service offered by rebelbetting. In addition, you get banned from some of them as they know that you are on arbitrage.

Financial arbitrage can work within same currency countries. I am not sure if some country within EU offers higher rate at all.

Developing countries with other currencies have usually high interest rates, but their inflation is high and currency degrades at higher rate.

I agree with almost everything, about the developing countries and their currency is usually true but not necessarily.
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2018, 09:03:41 AM »
Laying all odds could be sure profit, like backing all odds is not always sure profit.
I assume you are saying this because of the commissions involved?

Dutching and arbitrage can work simultaneously, you could make such complicated combination of bet types, with scores, totals...etc, which is hard to see and know from the first sight.

Dutching could be an arbitrage trade.
 

mr j

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2018, 09:54:57 AM »
I wish you were here more Mike!!

Ken
 

Mike

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2018, 09:56:00 AM »
Laying all odds could be sure profit, like backing all odds is not always sure profit.
I assume you are saying this because of the commissions involved?
If by commissions you mean the bookie's advantage then yes. The bookie's advantage comes from not offering odds which represent the true chance of the outcome occurring.
Eg, considering a football match (the event) that can be either a 'home win', 'draw' or 'away win' (the outcomes) then the following odds might be encountered to represent the true chance of each of the three outcomes:

Home: 1-1
Draw: 2-1
Away: 5-1

When you convert those odds to probabilities you get

Evens (or 1-1) corresponds to a relative probability of ​1⁄2 (50%)
2-1 corresponds to a relative probability of ​1⁄3 (33 ​1⁄3%)
5-1 corresponds to a relative probability of ​1⁄6 (16 ​2⁄3%)

By adding the probabilities together a total "book" of 100% is achieved, which represents a "fair" book. The bookie, in order to give himself  a profit, will invariably reduce these odds, so making the bets unfair to the punter.

e.g, he might set the odds to the following:

Home: 4-6
Draw: 6-4
Away: 4-1

4-6 corresponds to a relative probability of ​3⁄5 (60%)
6-4 corresponds to a relative probability of ​2⁄5 (40%)
4-1 corresponds to a relative probability of ​1⁄5 (20%)

By adding these percentages together a book of 120% is achieved. The 20% increase over the fair odds represents the bookie's "house advantage".

This is no different from roulette. You might as well say that because some dozen system isn't winning then you should switch to betting on the other dozens + the zero, then you're sure to win! Nope, because the house edge exists for every possible outcome.

However with sports betting it's easier to find value bets than in roulette because neither the probabilities or the odds (payouts) are fixed. The bookies can't always "balance" their books so that all outcomes show a profit for them equally, and therein lies the opportunity for the sharp sports bettor.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 10:37:05 AM by Mike »
 

scepticus

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2018, 01:43:57 PM »
MikeCan you show where my " Lightbulb Moment " is wrong ?
 

Mike

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2018, 02:58:51 PM »
Scepticus,

Which particular lightbulb moment are you talking about? You've been wrong so many times...
 
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scepticus

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2018, 03:39:35 PM »
 :D :D In YOUR opinion Mike.One of my later posts where there are 4 options , each with the same probability of success . Thus the odds of any one is  3/1  yet get paid 7/2 .You may remembe |I showed that ONE of the 4 DID  win when you gave me your your 36 numbers .And you did duck my challenge to prove your expertise as an AP. You also said that 9/36 was always 9/36 but ,perversely claimed that YOUR AP 9/36 gave an edge ! Disconnect surely ?     
 
 

BlueAngel

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Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2018, 04:25:01 PM »
But if you would bet Don't Pass, every 1st roll has the 7 against it, that's why it's not recommended to bet Don't Pass and Don't Come because the rule of the 1st roll negates the better possibility which you would have just by laying anytime anything!

Because lay bets on Craps are advantageous the casino counterbalance it with the "vigorish", a 5% paid whether with the bet, in advance, or deducted from the win, if it wins.
There is no standard, some casinos do the former while other do the later, is clearly better for the punter to pay the vigorish from the profit of a won bet, otherwise the 5% would be equivalent to more money!

@ Mike, regardless of bookmakers' commissions, both, lay and back can be utilized to produce sure profit regardless of the outcome of an event.
The actual difference on laying is that you, the punter offers the odds, you are becoming the bookmaker, thus what you offer has to be accepted by other punters.
So in a sense the lay is indirect and back direct in relation to what is the goal of the trade.
 

Mike

Re: The sure thing!
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2018, 11:20:39 AM »
BlueAngel,
You can only lay directly on betting exchanges like betfair. You can effectively "lay" with a bookie only if you bet  (for example) all horses in a race other than the one you're betting to lose. In an exchange it's true that you can offer the odds, but that's no guarantee that anyone will take them, so how can it be a "sure thing"? In any case, it's all irrelevant if you don't have a value bet, so I can only assume that what I wrote in my previous post went completely over your head.

You can trade on the betting exchanges, where it's possible to get a profit whatever the outcome, but the outcomes are still probabilistic, not sure. This is because you have to be able to identify when the odds will shift in the direction favorable to you locking in a profit.
 
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